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I’m not sure why, but the Blues are only one point out of the final Western Conference wild-card spot despite a large amount of problems and issues that include a lot of injuries, underperforming stars, an alarmingly low-scoring offense, vulnerable goaltending, and a general malaise that’s driven their coach and fans cuckoo. You know, the lack of effort, intensity, alertness, and commitment that we’ve heard so much about after the Blues lose a game.
But here they are at 17-18-8 for a .488 points percentage that’s tied for 27th among the 32 NHL teams. The Blues have been fortunate that so many Western Conference teams have graciously given them a chance to compete for a playoff spot.
The bottom seven teams in the overall NHL standings – based on points percentage – all reside in the West. And 10 of the 13 least successful teams in the NHL to this stage of the campaign are Western Conference members.
So the Blues, at least for now, are not paying anything close to the full penalty for being so mediocre and disappointing. Not to mention frustrating. And bewildering.
The Blues have attained better results since late November, having hacked away for a 10-8-1 record in their last 19 games. Their points percentage since Nov. 28, .553, is 18th overall but fourth-best among Western Conference colleagues. That’s somewhat remarkable until we circle back and remember just how crummy this conference is.
So the Blues took advantage of it. There has been some on-ice improvement over the last 19 games, with most of it centered around tighter goal prevention. More on that in a couple of minutes.
The returns of forwards injury-sidelined forwards Jordan Kyrou, Jake Neighbours and Jimmy Snuggerud have aided the cause. The waiver-claim pickup of forward Jonathan Berggren has provided a boost.
And a number of Blues forwards have an expected goals-for percentage above 50 percent over the last 19 games: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, Kyrou, Neighbours, Berggren, Dalibor Dvrosky and Dylan Holloway.
The primary source of the turnaround is goaltender Joel Hofer. He’s been outstanding during the team’s 10-8-1 record over the last 19 games.
Details:
* 12 games including 10 starts.
* Team record of 7-3 in Hofer’s starts.
* Among the 32 NHL goaltenders that have played at least 500 minutes since Nov. 28, Hofer’s .927 save percentage ranks second to Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson (.928).
* Hofer’s 2.08 goals against-average since Nov. 28 is third best among the 32 goalies.
* During this time period, Hofer ranks No. 1 in the league with a plus 9.1 goals saved above average. (GSAA).
* Among the 13 NHL goaltenders that have played in at least 12 games since Nov. 28, Hofer ranks third with a quality-start percentage of .700.
* In Hofer’s seven starts that resulted in a St. Louis win during this stretch he posted two shutouts, allowed two or fewer goals in four other starts, and never gave up more than three scores.
Jordan Binnington just had a 2-0 shutout win over Montreal, and that was a good sign to see him play well. But during the current phase that began Nov. 28, Binnington has a 3-5-1 record, .863 save percentage, 3.94 goals-against average, a .222 quality-start percentage and is a minus 7.7 goals saved above average.
There’s a huge difference between the performances of Hofer and Binnington. Unlike Binnington, Hofer has put up an impressive level of resistance to the heavy flow of goals scored against the Blues this season.
In their first 24 games of the season, the Blues yielded an average of 3.52 goals per 60 minutes which ranked 28th in the NHL. But in their last 19 games, the Blues have allowed an average of 3.05 goals.
And while that 3.05 ranks 21st in the league over that time (nothing special), we can’t blame Hofer. Sure, Hofer had a couple of wobbly starts since Nov. 28, but he’s been vastly superior to Binnington. There is absolutely no debate about that. Because of Hofer, the Blues have gradually reduced the number of goals given up over the last 19 games, and that progress was mandatory.
The problem? The Blues are still struggling terribly to score goals. In fact, they’ve scored fewer goals (on average) over the last 19 games than they did through the first 24 games.
– First 24 games: 2.58 goals scored per 60 minutes, 29th in the NHL.
– Last 19 games: 2.31 goals scored per 60 minutes, 28th in the NHL.
So even though the Blues have been winning more often lately, the upswing is attributable to their improvement in goal prevention.
But because the STL offense is still dragging so terribly, the Blues haven’t benefited from Hofer’s stellar goaltending as much as they should be.
The offensive metrics haven’t changed much. In fact, the Blues’ expected goals-scored percentage has actually deteriorated.
– First 24 games: an expected goals-for rate of 50.25 percent, which ranked 14th in the NHL. But the boys weren’t capitalizing on enough scoring chances, and their goaltending was abysmal. That explains their 7-10-7 start to the season.
– Last 19 games: an expected goals-for rate of 46.1 percent, which ranks 28th in the NHL. The Blues are in a bad way when it comes to cashing in on scoring chances, and that’s why they don’t have a more successful record over their last 24 games.
But at least Hofer has stopped the bleeding on the defensive end to make his team more competitive. The Blues need more players to raise their game.
The Blues don’t want to bruise Binnington’s feelings by publicly acknowledging that Hofer has been their No. 1 goaltender over the past 39 days. The Blues don’t really have to say a thing about that because we can see what’s happening. Hofer is playing like a No. 1 goaltender even if GM Doug Armstrong and coach Jim Montgomery decline to give him that label.
As of Monday afternoon, the Blues had a 11.5 percent probability of making the 2026 playoffs. Only three teams – Blackhawks, Canucks and Jets – are more of a longshot than St. Louis.
The challenge for Hofer is to keep playing like a No. 1, and that will be the test.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.