I’ll be burrowed inside The Lair inside my home this weekend to watch conference-championship football games on Friday and Saturday, then enjoy a Sunday feast of NFL action.
Speaking of feasts, my plans for chow include an extensive sampling of delights from Salt & Smoke barbeque, plus a pot of creamy chicken tortellini soup that I don’t really deserve – because I am not worthy of such goodness. I’m sure I’ll work in a hot salami sandwich masterpiece from Gioia’s.
So many choices …
Which is also true of the weekend football-watching menu.
I’ll stick to college football for this written presentation. Because it’s getting late in the afternoon here on Friday, I don’t know how many people will be able to read this in time for the Friday night’s four-pack of games.
But for the record … yes, I will be wagering.
Thanks, DraftKings sportsbook app!
FRIDAY’S GAMES
North Texas vs. Tulane for the American Conference title. I like North Texas to cover the 2 and ½ points as the favorite And I’ll take the over (66.5 points.) This game will be played in Tulane’s home base (New Orleans) which is something to think about.
North Texas is 10-2 against the spread this season and scores points like a basketball team. Tulane is 6-6 ATS and has failed to cover the spread in its last three home games. There are no other Group of Five teams ranked in between Tulane and North Texas, so a spot in the playoff is available for the winner. Both head coaches in this game have accepted new jobs at power conference programs, so the distraction factor is neutral. I’m choosing North Texas to win and cover.
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State for the Conference USA title. Jax is a 2 and ½ point underdog and has the home-field advantage. True fact: the last 11 opponents to play on Jacksonville’s turf went 1-10. And that came in the 2024 season opener. And of the 13 Conference USA opponents to play in Jacksonville, only one has stolen a victory since the Gamecocks moved to the FBS level. So Jacksonville is the choice here.
Troy vs. James Madison for the Sun Belt Conference title: JMU is favored by 23.5 points at home and Troy has a good enough defense to cover that massive spread. But I think James Madison will want to bushel up as many points as possible to impress the CFP selection committee … just in case. Or something like that.
The Mean Green wants to win and bushel up as many points as possible to impress the CFP selection committee … just in case. Or something like that. But Troy’s defense ranked 3rd in the conference, starting quarterback QB Goose Crowder is back in form after recovering from a broken collarbone. And JMU coach Bob Chesney will coach his team tonite – only a few days after he accepted the UCLA job. Surely that’s got to be a bit distracting. I’m going with Troy to cover the 23.5. Final score? Probably around 35-17.
UNLV at Boise State for the Mountain West title: Boise State is the better club, but gush of rainy and chilly weather may slow these teams down a bit. UNLV went 10-2 this season, and Boise State is 8-4, but oddsmakers like the Broncos at home as evidenced by the 5 and ½ point spread. One factor is the return of Boise QB Maddex Madsen from injury. I’m torn on this one. UNLV has a balanced offense that really moves the ball – but Rebs’ defense is awful. So while I do think Boise State will prevail because of the home edge, I think Dan Mullen’s UNLV side will cover the 5.5.
SATURDAY'S GAMES
BYU vs Texas Tech for the Big 12 title: the Red Raiders are favored by 12 and ½ for obvious reasons including a thorough beatdown of the Cougars during the regular season. Texas Tech is a threat to win the national title so winning the Big 12 should be a relatively simple challenge for this excellent team. I like both defenses but we can make a case that Texas Tech’s defensive front is tops in the nation. The Raiders did lose during the regular season but their terrific starting quarterback Behren Morton missed that game (at Arizona State). Is that a factor? Well, in his nine games against FBS level teams this season the Red Raiders won all nine by an average margin of 30.5 points. BYU doesn’t have the muscle to slug it out with Tech and prevail.
Texas Tech has won its last five games straight up and against the spread while opponents 211-36. (Good grief.) One of those wins was a 29-7 knockout of this BYU squad. Texas Tech wins (and covers) without worry.
At DraftKings a lot of money is coming in on the underdog Cougs in this one. Hmmm. But how about this trend? In power conference title games played on a neutral field (which applies here) teams that were double-digit favorites have won 23 straight games straight up and have covered the point spread 70% of the time. This trend goes all the way back to 2008. Also: Texas Tech is 21-6 against the spread (77.8%) in its last 27 games as a double-digit favorite.
I’ll go with Texas Tech (-12.5) and play the over on the 49.5-point total.
Georgia vs. Alabama for the SEC title: Alabama is a 2 and ½ point underdog despite winning at Georgia during the regular season. And UGA coach Kirby Smart has famously lost seven of his eight games against Bama and that includes an 0-2 record since Kalen DeBoer succeeded Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa.
This is a tough decision for me. Georgia’s dominant center – Drew Bobo – is out for this game and that’s a bigger deal than you’d think. He’s a leader who runs that O-line and his teammates depend on him.
I know that Alabama does not always look good in games played at hated-rival Auburn. And Alabama did win a close one at Auburn’s place last Saturday. But I can’t shake the sight of Alabama’s defense giving up more than 400 yards last week to a pedestrian Auburn offense.
And I find this meaningful: Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson had good overall numbers in his team’s 24-21 win at Athens on Sept. 27. But Kirby Smart made sharp adjustments and the UGA defense didn’t allow a point in the second half of that game. The Bulldogs defense continues to improve, having given up an average of only 7.3 points in the past three games.
And this stat may surprise some folks: In SEC vs. SEC conference games this season, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton had a higher passer efficiency rating than Simpson this season. And Stockton also had the higher completion percentage, on-target rate, and threw more touchdown passes. Stockton is a nifty runner as well. Pardon my metrics, but in SEC games this season here is the Expected Points Added (EPA) for each quarterback.
Stockton, 62.6, second in the SEC.
Simpson, 21.1 EPA, 5th in the SEC.
I’ll take Georgia and lay the 2 and ½ points.
Ohio State vs. Indiana for the Big 10 title: The game of the weekend! And probably the best matchup of the season to date. Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the CFP ratings, with Indiana standing proudly at No. 2. The battle will be held at Indianapolis, but I don’t know about a homefield advantage.
I believe Ohio State has the best team in college football, but I would give Indiana an edge for the way they persevered against two Top 10 defenses on the road (Oregon and Iowa) to emerge with a victory each time. And the Hoosiers, memorably, fought back on the road at Penn State to win at the end after being on the brink of losing in a huge upset.
And while Texas gave the Buckeyes a tight game early this season in Columbus, I don’t think Ohio State has really been challenged all season. Which tells us just how great they are.
Ohio State has a phenomenal defense, statistically the best in the nation. In fact, the Buckeyes are the first defense to hold its first 12 opponents of the season to less than 17 points since Florida did it in 1975.
But the Buckeyes haven’t played a quarterback that’s as formidable as Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. That could matter, because Mendoza has led the Hoosiers to 27 or more points in 11 of his 12 games this season.
Mendoza has passed (no pun intended) some extremely difficult tests in hostile settings this season. And Ohio State’s young quarterback Julian Sayin, while excellent, hasn’t played in the same type of intense, high-pressure games that have defined Mendoza. How will the redshirt freshman (Sayin) do when it’s close and late and tense and Indiana’s defenders are in his face? That’s a key question. Another question: will the Buckeyes have an emotional letdown after last week’s end-of-the-world rivalry-game win at Michigan?
Indiana is a four-point underdog and I think they can cover that. I pick Ohio State to win the game, but the Hoosiers will lose by no more than three points. Sayin can change all of that with a few flicks of the football.
A side wager: Indiana under 21.5 points for the game.
Duke vs. Virginia for the ACC title. It’s a neutral field (Charlotte.) I don’t know that the records matter because there are no great teams in the ACC. But for what it’s worth UVA is 10-2 and Duke is 6-5. A win by Duke would likely result in a 7-5 team making the CFP. That’s embarrassing. The sharp money is coming in on Duke, a four-point underdog. I can see that, sure. But Duke's defense has been awful for the last month and in one of the games UVA scored 31 points on the Blue Devils in mid-November before easing up in the fourth quarter. And Virginia still won that one by 17. I’ll take UVA and lay the four points.
Thanks for reading!
–Bernie