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The Cardinals have plenty of questions about their 2026 rotation. But Matthew Liberatore’s secure place as one of STL’s starting pitchers shouldn’t be questioned.
Except for one baffling aspect of his pitching that I simply don’t understand. I will explain what I’m talking about later in the column.
I’m not saying Liberatore is Steve Carlton, circa 1969. “Lefty” had a 2.17 ERA in 31 starts for the Cardinals that season.
I’m not saying Liberatore is an ace, a No. 1 starter, or a future Cy Young Award winner.
I’m not saying Liberatore is good to go, all set, and doesn’t have anything to prove or work on.
And I’m certainly not here to claim everything went smoothly for Libby in 2025 during his first season as a big-league starter.
Fatigue issues set him back and caused deterioration in his performance. He had to battle through it. But this is hardly unusual for a first-time starter, 25 years at the time, who wasn’t accustomed to a heavy innings load.
I thought manager Oli Marmol made a mistake in pushing Liberatore a little too hard early in the season. Liberatore averaged just under 6 innings over his first 10 starts, a rate that put him way up there among National League starters.
Too much too soon? I think so – especially because it was important for Libby to hold up and pitch effectively over 30 starts or so.
But those first 10 Liberatore starts of 2025 … wow. The left-hander was fantastic in just about every way.
This where Liberatore stood among NL starters on May 24:
– 3rd among with a Fielding Independent ERA of 2.58.
– 10th with a standard 2.73 ERA.
– Tied for 4th with seven quality starts.
– 4th lowest home-run rate at 0.46 per 9 innings.
– 4th lowest WHIP with an average of 1.01 walks-plus-hits per inning.
– Lowest walk rate at 3.4 percent.
– No. 1 strikeout-walk ratio (6.38).
Liberatore got roughed up in his next three starts after that – but rebounded to pitch to a 2.25 ERA in late June, early July. He was inconsistent after that, but had stretches of decent pitching in between the poor outings. Liberatore closed the season with a 3.54 ERA in his final four starts.
Liberatore insisted that he felt strong, and that may have been true. But just a slight erosion of a pitcher’s mechanics can reduce his effectiveness. And that’s what happened with Libby.
Liberatore began laboring through high pitch counts in too many assignments. In his final 19 starts of the season he averaged only 4.8 innings and had seven starts that lasted less than five innings.
His inefficiency was a real problem. Through July and August his strikeout rate crashed to 14.2 percent and his walk rate spiked to 9.3%. That was a problem. But Liberatore got through it, and cranked a 23.8 percent strikeout rate (and lowered his walk rate) in four September starts.
It was a nice recovery that reaffirmed that his issues were related to fatigue. All things considered Libby’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) – which best defines him – held up pretty well.
In four months – April, May, June and September – Liberatore had a 3.25 FIP in his 20 starts. And his strikeout-walk ratio was solid.
But in his two horrible months – July and August – Liberatore couldn’t overcome the collapse of his efficiency. His strikeout-walk ratio collapsed. He wasn’t controlling counts. He was more vulnerable to hitters that jumped him when he fell behind in the count. In his nine starts during those two stressful months, opponents clobbered Liberatore for 2.1 home runs per 9 innings. And those nine starts generated a 6.26 FIP.
So what do we have here? An inexperienced major-league starter, pushing through his first season in a more physically demanding role. He struggled but got through it. That’s the most important thing to remember.
And that’s why I’m strongly inclined to believe Libby’s good pitching was more meaningful than his poor pitching in 2025. I’m not overreacting to a predictable in-season downturn when burnout was a predictable factor.
In Adam Wainwright’s first season as a Cardinals starter (2007), at age 25, his adjusted ERA was around 18 percent above the league average. In his second season, that improved to 32 percent above average. And in his third season, at age 27, Waino’s adjusted ERA was 55 percent above average and he finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting.
Of course Wainwright had more talent and the benefit of coming up with a heroic baseball performance as the Cards’ 2006 postseason that ended with a World Series title. Relatively speaking, that gave Wainwright a head start (and quite an advantage) over a dude like Liberatore at the same age.
For all of his challenges, Liberatore finished 2025 with an adjusted ERA that was only three percent below the league average. That wasn’t a big deal, a big negative, for his first time doing the job in the big leagues.
Here’s what I take away from Liberatore’s “rookie” season as a starter in 2025:
* Libby’s ERA (4.21) was better than Sonny Gray’s 4.28 ERA.
* As I mentioned, Liberatore’s adjusted ERA performance was three percent below league average. That was still the best by a St. Louis starter; Gray was four percent below average.
* Liberatore’s adjusted ERA was 12 percent better than that of Michael McGreevy. And 27 percent better than that of Andre Pallante.
* Liberatore ranked second among Cards starters to Gray in fielding independent ERA.
* Liberatore was the best St. Louis starter at preventing home runs in 2025.
* Liberatore’s 4.03 Fielding Independent ERA may not seem great to you. But that 4.03 FIP put Liberatore above an extensive number of starters who worked at least 150 innings in 2025.
* That list of starters that didn’t match Libby’s 4.03 FIP includes Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Brandon Pfaadt, Luis Severino, Brayan Bello, Jack Leiter, Clay Holmes, Shane Baz, Jose Berrios, Eduardo Rodriguez, Logan Allen, Kyle Freeland, Yusei Kikuchi and Will Warren. Liberatore’s 4.03 FIP matched Chris Bassitt and was essentially the same as Mitch Keller’s 4.02.
Now: To the Unpleasant Stuff!
I have concerns over Liberatore’s four-seam fastball. It was a rotten, easily-hittable pitch for him in 2025. And he also threw the four-seamer more frequently than any other pitch.
And this troubling four-seamer habit has never worked effectively for Liberatore in the majors, and I’m surprised the Cardinals haven’t come up with a better plan for the talented lefty. That must be fixed.
Excluding May, when his four-seam was effective, here’s what hitters did in blasting the pitch in the other five months of 2025: 139 at-bats, 11 percent strikeout rate, 10 homers and eight doubles, .309 average, .597 slugging percentage, 92.7 mph exit velocity.
Statcast rated Liberatore’s four-seam fastball with a horrific minus 13 value that put him in the bottom four percent of all MLB pitchers last season. It was, in fact, one of the very worst pitches in the majors. So why did he throw it 29.6 percent of the time?
Frankly, that’s stupid.
And when Liberatore threw the four-seam fastball for a strike in every month but May, hitters smoked it for a .362 average and .707 slug. This problematic four-seamer was also crushed and splattered in 2024.
I don’t know what the answer is, but here’s a thought: despite his size and ability to throw 94 mph four-seam fastballs, is Liberatore built to be more of a finesse lefty? In 2025, in 285 at-bats that ended with Libby throwing an offspeed or breaking pitch, hitters had a .221 average, .319 slug and 28.3 strikeout rate – and with a poor hard-hit rate.
Last season Liberatore’s offspeed pitches were good for a +3 Run Value that placed him in the top 36 percent of all pitchers. His offspeed offerings were among the best in the majors for 2025, with a +10 Run Value that rated among the top five percent of MLB pitchers.
There’s a lot to work with here. I trust that the Cardinals will come up with a smarter plan of attack for Liberatore in 2026. And if they don’t, then pitching coach Dusty Blake should be put on the spot by Chaim to explain this defective strategy.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie covered every Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie has been a long time voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. At KMOX Bernie spent many years working with some of the all-time greats including Jack Buck, Mike Shannon, Bob Costas and Dan Dierdorf. And he credits Hall of Fame broadcasters Ron Jacober and Randy Karrarker for their generous assistance in helping him at KMOX. You can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and Randy.