Game Information
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Denver Broncos (8-2)
Time: 3:25pm CT Sunday
How to watch: CBS
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Total: 44.5
The Kansas City Chiefs’ AFC West dominance is on the line when they travel to face the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
Kansas City trails Denver by 2.5 games for the top spot in the division, so for the Chiefs to have a realistic chance to win a tenth consecutive AFC West title, they likely need to win this game on Sunday.
Not only is Kansas City in trouble in the division, but the playoffs are no guarantee either. If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs would be on the outside looking in due to losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Jaguars.
So the Chiefs really need this one on Sunday - and I think they’ll get it done.
The main reason for that is I believe the Broncos are a very fraudulent 8-2 and way overdue for regression. Yes, they have a terrific defense. But Denver has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat numerous times this season:
21-17 win over Eagles - rallied from a 17-3 deficit in the fourth quarter
13-11 win over Jets - put up only 246 yards of total offense, trailed 11-10 in the fourth quarter
33-32 win over Giants - down 19-0 before erupting for 33 points in the fourth quarter
18-15 win over Texans - overcame a 15-7 deficit in the fourth quarter
10-7 win over Raiders - survived after only generating 220 yards of offense
A team can only get away with close calls like that for so long, and up against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, I think this is where the Denver magic fizzles.
I expect Bo Nix to struggle in this one against an underrated Kansas City defense. The Chiefs rank 4th in the NFL giving up just 17.7 points per game - which is right behind the Broncos and their 17.3 points allowed per game.
The Broncos are also expected to be without starting running back JK Dobbins due to a foot injury. Dobbins is 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, so that will hurt the Denver rushing attack.
I don’t love having to lay over a field goal with the Chiefs on the road, so the way I’m getting at this game is taking the Chiefs on the moneyline and parlaying it with the Texans on the moneyline against the Titans. Tennessee shouldn’t be able to do much of anything offensively against Houston’s defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in points allowed.
Put those two legs together and that gives you plus money odds.
Pick: Chiefs/Texans moneyline parlay at +102 on DraftKings (bet to -110)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer