For the Missouri Tigers, the 2025 season has come down to pride, purpose, and persistence. A big dream has been tackled for a big loss in recent weeks, and I wonder if Mizzou has the resolve to finish strong.
I think so. I really do. But this being the Show Me State and all … we’ll have to see it to know for sure.
After dropping three of their last four games – a depressing deterioration that spoiled a happy-times 5-0 start and the fantasy that came with it – the Tigers have faded from the CFB playoff picture. They will try to stop the slide in Saturday’s game against visiting Mississippi State.
It’s the final home game of the season. It’s the final time to make Memorial Stadium shake with the Mr. Brightside anthem. It’s a chance to remove some of the misery left from Missouri’s downturn.
It’s Senior Day. It’s say-goodbye day. It’s also a new day – a fresh opportunity for M-I-Z to renew, dig in and make a stand to prevent a 6-3 season from plunging deeper into disappointment.
Missouri is down to three regular season games on the schedule. Saturday’s last (Missouri) waltz at home, then consecutive roadies at Oklahoma and Arkansas. Depending on how this plays out, the Tigers will end up 9-3, or 8-4, or 7-5. And then they’ll go Bowling at a location to be named later.
"We're all extremely disappointed," Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said Tuesday on his Tiger Talk radio show. "We all had really high hopes for this season. We really wanted to go somewhere that this place hasn't been. In order to do that, you have to put your whole self into it, and you really have to push and believe, and then you have to pick yourself up when it doesn't happen."
Pride. Purpose. Persistence.
And, for this game against Mississippi State, Mizzou had better bring a powerful ground attack to this particular brawl. Mississippi State, which is on an upswing, can clinch its first bowl appearance since the 2022 season by upsetting Missouri.
The home team is a 7-point favorite that could be down to 6.5 by kickoff. The term “path to glory” doesn’t apply to Mizzou in this one. But there is a path to a victory and win No. 7 for the Tigers.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Mississippi State is 2-20 in SEC games. But at least both wins were on the road, including a 38-35 breakthrough two weeks ago at Arkansas. For the Bulldogs it was the first SEC road success since Oct. 21 of the ‘23 season.
But as the astute handicapper Steve Makinen writes:
“Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has to get his team up for what is a very pesky Mississippi State team on Saturday. The oddsmakers have done Mizzou no favors either, installing them as 7-point favorites. The Bulldogs boast an impressive 5-2 record against the spread in the underdog role this season and have continued to fight hard through the SEC slate as they seek a bowl-clinching sixth win.
“Don’t overlook how important playing in a bowl game would be for head coach Jeff Lebby’s squad after they went 2-10 last year. MSU should be a very live underdog in this one.”
Mizzou should come out ahead by doing what’s necessary – and pound Mississippi State into retreat. In games against power-conference opponents, MU ranks 3rd among SEC teams in rushing yards per game (196.2), rushing yards gained after contact (876), 4th in yards per rushing attempt (4.9), and is No. 1 in average yards picked up after contact (3.9).
Missouri’s run game leveled off against Alabama and Auburn, and wasn’t quite as sturdy when confronting Vanderbilt. But this is still one of the top ground units in the SEC.
In Mississippi, there’s been a lot of media emphasis (understandably) in stacking tacklers in the box to stop the runners and force true-freshman quarterback Matt Zollers to be the football hero. This theory seems logical, but Missouri has been strong in fighting through stacked run defenses.
Among SEC teams, in games against power-conference foes, Missouri ranks fourth in total rushing yards when facing 6+ tacklers in the box. The Tigers are No. 2 in the SEC with 875 rushing yards after contact in those situations and have the highest percentage (27%) of broken and missed tackles against 6+ defenders in the running lanes.
And Mississippi State isn’t formidable at stopping the run. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Bulldogs have yielded 201 yards rushing per game against power conference opponents. Only four power-conference defenses have been smashed for more turf yards per contest than that.
And the Mississippi State defense ranks 60th among 68 power-conference units for most average yards allowed per carry after contact. The team’s percentage of stuffing running plays rates 65th among the 68. Run, Mizzou, run.
I’m not ruling out the possibility of the young Zollers rebounding from the Texas A&M setback to improve his passing touch in Saturday’s game, but Mississippi State is effective in pass coverage and has 10 interceptions against FBS opponents. That’s tied for the most by an SEC defense.
Mizzou should roll the tanks and chew up yardage. But given how Missouri’s wide receivers are disappearing from the team’s passing game, the Tigers may take the pragmatic approach and keep it simple.
So, what am I talking about when I refer to wide receivers vanishing from Missouri’s aerial unit?
I’m happy to lay it out for you and compare 2025 to the two previous seasons.
This breakdown is about wide receivers in the passing game. Not the tight ends. Not the running backs. Just the wide receivers, and Missouri has a highly capable and impressive group of wideouts in 2025. But they’re providing little impact, and that’s a shame … not to mention a waste of talent.
Issues: (1) challenges at the quarterback position that have led to a woefully ineffective and limited downfield passing attack. (2) emphasis on the running game. (3) coaching. The playbook, the play calling, the personnel decisions, the approach.
These stats are pinned with Mizzou’s SEC ranking each season and are based on games against power conference opponents only.
2023 SEASON
Wide receiver targets: 234 … 2nd in SEC.
WR receptions: 153 … 2nd
WR receiving yards: 2,232 … 2nd
WR touchdown catches: 14 … 2nd
WR yards per game: 223 … 2nd
Passer rating to WRs: 107.4 … 5th
WR expected points added metric: 3rd.
Passes to WRs that traveled 20+ yards in the air: 21 of 49 for a 43% completion rate (4th) … 10 touchdown catches (5th) … Expected Points added metric (3rd) … passer rating 106.9 (5th).
2024 SEASON
Wide receiver targets: 213 … 6th in SEC.
WR receptions: 123 … 6th
WR receiving yards: 1,773 … 6th
WR touchdown catches: 10 … 5th
WR yards per game: 177 … 5th
Passer rating to WRs: 94.7 … 4th
WR expected points added: 11th
Passes to WRs that travel 20+ yards in the air: 14 of 41 for a 34.1% completion rate (10th) … 4 touchdown catches (6th), expected points added (11th) … passer rating 93.2 (8th).
2025 SEASON
(3 reg-season games left)
Wide receiver targets: 131 … 10th
WR receptions: 79 … 11th
WR receiving yards: 930 … 14th
WR touchdown catches: 3 … 16th
WR yards per game: 155 … 11th
Passer rating to WRs: 73.6 … 15th
WR expected points added: … 11th
Passes to WRs that travel 20+ yards in the air: 5 of 19 for a 26.3 completion rate (13th) … no touchdown catches (16th) … Expected Points Added (12th) … passer rating 20.4 (15th).
Some of these numbers will improve over the next three games, but it won’t be enough to make a meaningful difference. If we look at how much the wide receiver productivity has changed – so much worse – from 2023 until now, it’s stunning.
If Coach Drink sticks around, and if offensive coordinator Kirby Moore stays with Drink, the coaches will have to take a long hard look at the case of the disappearing wide receivers. That said, if Zollers develops into an above-average quarterback with downfield accuracy and ability, then the wide receivers will become more of a factor … if they stick around.
I think Mizzou beats Mississippi on Saturday. I see this as an M-I-Z team that will fight instead of quit. Especially on an emotional Senior Day.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Bernie covered every Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and the Heisman Trophy.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and longtime friend Randy Karraker.