I want to talk about Cardinals’ outfield prospect Joshua Baez … and I will. But I think it’s best to set the table, set the premise, for the angle on Baez and my reason for featuring him.
It’s been a while since the Cardinals drafted and developed a right-handed power hitter who can do serious damage against major-league pitchers. Baez could become that guy, and I’ll explain why later.
Albert Pujols was all of that and more in becoming one of the greatest right-handed hitters in major-league history.
In his early St. Louis career that began in 2001 and lasted 11 summers until he signed a free-agent contract with the Angels, Pujols hit 40+ homers in a season six times, and cranked at least 30 in five other blitzes. The young Pujols slugged .609 or higher in nine of his first 11 seasons for the Redbirds.
At age 42, Pujols returned to St. Louis for an encore and slammed 24 homers and slugged .550 in his farewell to Cardinals fans.
OK, so who were the other right-handed hitters – drafted and developed by the Cards – who powered up? Obviously, no one could (or will) compare to Pujols.
Besides Pujols, here’s the list of St. Louis homegrown right-handed hitters who put together 20+ homers and a .500+ slugging percentage in the same season since Bill DeWitt Jr. became the franchise owner in 1996 …
– Brian Jordan: 25 home runs and a .534 slugging percentage in 1998.
– Allen Craig: 22 home runs and a .522 slugging percentage in 2012.
– Yadier Molina: 22 homers, .501 slug in 2012.
– Tommy Pham: 22 homers and a .520 slug in 2017.
– Paul DeJong: 25 homers and a .532 slug in 2017.
Goodness, it’s been a minute.
We haven’t seen a draft-development breakout from a right-handed STL hitter since 2017?
I guess we could say “2019” because DeJong hit 30 homers that season – though his slugging percentage was 56 points below .500 that year. That’s why I set the parameters higher by using a .500 slug as a standard.
I didn’t include Tyler O’Neill who had a big 2021. That’s because O’Neill was drafted by the Mariners and was already at Seattle’s Triple A affiliate when the Cards acquired him in the summer of 2017.
Let’s face it: there’s been a huge void in the Cardinals lineup for a while. For too long. The Cards have some right-handed power – Ivan Herrera and Willson Contreras – but it isn’t enough.
When your team-leading home-run total for 2025 was 20, by Contreras, then the power shortage is real.
In 2025 St. Louis right-handed batters as a group ranked 23rd among the 30 teams in home runs (68), 26th in slugging (.379) and 28th in Isolated Power (.150.) That’s … bad.
Which leads me back to Joshua Baez, the Boston-area high school bopper who was chosen 54th overall in the 2021 MLB draft. Cardinals director of scouting Randy Flores was excited by the kid’s raw and imposing skills – but cautioned it would take time for Baez to adjust to professional pitching. And that’s what happened.
Baez spent most of 2022 playing in the Florida Complex League. In low-A level ball in 2023, he batted .218 with a .383 slugging percentage and a 34 percent strikeout rate.
In a 2024 season split between low A and high A in the minors, Baez batted .245 with a .408 slug and 35 percent strikeout rate.
Baez was set back by injuries. He had a real swing-and-miss problem. Maybe he would figure it out. Maybe he wouldn’t. Baez could go either way.
Boom or bust?
Well, the good news: Baez had a fantastic 2025 season, starting at high A Peoria before moving up to Double A Springfield.
For the season, Baez batted .287, had a .384 on-base percentage, slugged .500, and swiped 54 bases in 63 attempts for an 85.7% success rate.
The difference? The plate discipline kicked in. Then his hitting talent locked in.
# Baez had a 12.6% walk rate in 2025, and his strikeout rate dropped to an impressively low 20.6%. Which was great considering his consecutive seasons of striking out at least 35 percent of the time. Progress!
# Baez had a whiff-swing rate of 43 percent in 2023, lowered that to 37.4% in 2024 – and the rate went down to 27.5 percent in 2025. Progress!
# His contact rate – 47% in 2023, and 53% in 2024 – increased to 76 percent in 2025. Progress!
# Baez chased pitches out of the strike zone around 29 percent of the time in 2023 and 2024 … and reduced that to around 22% in 2025.
This was a remarkable turnaround for a young hitter that was 21 years old for about half of the ‘25 season.
Baez thrived in his 79 games at Springfield, posting a .509 slug and .883 OPS. Per wRC+, his offensive performance at Double A was 44 percent above league average.
And in the Texas League, where the average age for hitters was 24 years old, Baez was only 21 at the time of his promotion.
But let’s go back a little. Baez seemed lost at the plate in 2024, and was struggling with his unhinged approach. Chase. Swing and miss. Strikeout. Repeat.
In late July of 2024, the Cardinals intervened, called time out, and placed Baez on the Development List to work on all that ailed his swing and strike-zone clarity. By that time, Chaim Bloom was already working for the Cardinals and scouting out the problems in a decaying and outdated St. Louis farm system.
Baseball America picked it up from there.
“Baez used his four weeks on the Development List to his advantage, altering his swing and getting more upright in his setup. The changes worked. Upon returning to play, Baez identified balls and strikes with greater proficiency and was also more consistently on time with the barrel.
“Though it was only a 15-game sample upon his return, Baez looked like a different player. Little did we know that this marked the beginning of a career transformation.”
Independent talent evaluators began to take notice. And Baez became the object of considerable attention during his break-free 2025 campaign.
More from Baseball America, the superb publication – you should subscribe – that specializes in comprehensive prospect coverage.
“Under the hood, the data backs up Baez’s vast improvements. He’s making significantly more contact, making better swing decisions and hitting the ball harder with greater frequency than ever before. Baez has now more than passed the threshold of contact and approach needed to find success … his vast improvement has altered the course of his career, and his (2025) production clearly shows he’s better utilizing his impressive combination of power and speed … Once written off as a bust, Baez used a strong 2025 season to blossom into one of the minor leagues’ biggest helium prospects.”
When Baseball America updated its list of the Top 10 Cardinals prospects earlier this week, Baez zoomed all the way up to No. 4 behind infielder JJ Wetherholt, starting pitcher Liam Doyle and catcher Raniel Rodriguez.
“A physical specimen, Baez looks like a football player in the outfield,” Baseball America wrote. “A plus runner, Baez was one of the best basestealers in the minors in 2025 and presents a true plus power and speed combination.
“Baez broke out in a major way in 2025 and looks like he could debut for the Cardinals in 2026. He’s a potential above-average regular with the potential for 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases.”
Umm, is that good?
And he does bat right-handed?
Yes. I just wanted to make sure. (Smile.)
Baez is still very young … and still a prospect. And still raw … but less raw.
But please don’t embarrass yourself by comparing him to Nolan Gorman and assume that Baez will disappear into a swarm of bat-eating strikeouts termites in the majors.
Sure, when he gets here – whenever that is – Baez will have his ordeals and trials and may experience a loss of confidence.
Not exactly a rare thing in baseball for the hitters going through their big-league indoctrination. But while Gorman’s strikeout issues have never subsided, the same can’t be said about Baez. Unlike Gorman, Baez made critical adjustments to show substantial improvement at controlling the strike zone. And Baez received expert assistance from the operation put together by Bloom.
The Cardinals' new player-development staff worked closely with Baez in 2025 to make sure he stayed on track.
One of the things done by the minor-league staff in their work with Baez was finding a way to improve his posture. The instructors not only adjusted his approach; they adjusted the way he moves. And with a more aligned and smooth posture, Baez developed a more direct bat path.
Those lessons were reinforced during sessions in the weight room, and in the batting cage. This was a great example of how well the Cardinals’ instructors and (physical) performance staff are working together to enhance a player’s development.
This was not happening until Bloom took over, and hired people from the outside … people who are very good at what they do.
That list includes the brilliant Rob Cerfolio, the assistant GM for player development and performance. And the esteemed director of player development, Larry Day. And director of performance Carl Kochan, who earned World Series rings when doing the same job for the Giants.
And this includes others who were also recruited to attack one goal: make the kid Cardinals better. Give them everything they need, including abundant individual attention.
Unlike the recent past, the St. Louis prospects now have an entire team of smart people working with them – and for them – to make each individual better.
Joshua Baez is a model for the newer, smarter and more comprehensive teaching and training conventionality.
The added focus for Baez has paid off. And it makes me wonder how the careers of Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker (to this point) may have been different had they received the same quality care, instruction and concentration that helped transform Baez after he’d stalled as a prospect.
One more time for the people out there who still don’t get it: player development really matters. A successful and comprehensive player-development program can make a huge difference in getting talented prospects fully prepared for the majors.
Joshua Baez isn’t here yet, and his success big-league success is far from guaranteed. But with a more enlightened and advanced baseball operation in place, Baez is taking giant steps that have gotten him closer and closer to the majors.
Thanks for reading … If you missed my column on Alec Burleson yesterday, you can click HERE to read it!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Bernie covered every Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and the Heisman Trophy.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly through the week on KMOX (AM or FM).
And you can enjoy the weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and Randy Karraker.