Game Information
#15 Missouri Tigers (6-1) at #10 Vanderbilt Commodores (6-1)
Time: 2:30pm CT Saturday
How to watch: ESPN
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Vanderbilt -3
Total: 52.5
One of the biggest college football games in the country on Saturday takes place in Nashville when the #15 Missouri Tigers square off with the #10 Vanderbilt Commodores.
With both teams at 6-1, the winner will be in good shape to make a run at the College Football Playoff, while the loser will likely have to win their remaining games in the incredibly deep and tough SEC to get a shot at the CFP.
Both the public and the sharps are on Vandy here, as the Commodores are getting 57% of the bets and 71% of the money as of the time of this writing. This line opened with Vandy as a 1.5 point favorite, and that line has moved up to the current number of 3.
Unfortunately, I do agree with that movement and think the Commodores are the right side here.
Missouri’s defensive line was able to wreak all kinds of havoc last week against an Auburn team that has given up the most sacks in the SEC.
But the team that has allowed the fewest sacks in the conference is Mizzou’s opponent on Saturday.
The mobility of Diego Pavia is a big reason for that stat, and he ripped apart a very good LSU defense last week to vault his team into the top 10 in the AP poll. The Commodores also now have the second-highest scoring offense in the SEC.
I think Pavia will be able to neutralize Mizzou’s strength on the defensive line, and on the other side, I could see the Tigers struggling to establish a ground game for the third straight week as they face Vandy’s rush defense that ranks 12th in the country.
The book is out on how to defend Missouri, and it involves a commitment to stopping the run and forcing Beau Pribula to beat the opponent. Pribula was able to make enough winning plays at Auburn, but he’s going to need to make a lot more of them to keep up with this very good Vandy offense - and I’m just not confident enough that he can do that.
If I had to predict which team is more likely to struggle on offense, to me the answer is Missouri. And ultimately, I think that’s why the Commodores are the right play here at -3 or better.
Pick: Vanderbilt -3 at -105 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer