Game Information
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) vs Detroit Lions (4-1)
Time: 7:20pm CT Sunday
How to watch: NBC
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Total: 52.5
One of the premier Week 6 matchups in the NFL takes place on Sunday Night Football this evening when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions.
Last season’s run to another Super Bowl appearance for Kansas City was highlighted by a ridiculous 12-0 record in one-score games. Well the regression monster has come for the Chiefs this season, as they are 0-3 in one-possession games after last week’s 31-28 loss at Jacksonville.
The Lions come into tonight’s action riding a four-game winning streak and have won those four games by an average margin of 19 points.
If you go by the betting splits, not many people are expecting the Chiefs to win tonight. The Lions are stunningly getting 84% of the bets and 92% of the money as of the time of this writing.
Usually in a spot like this, I would be all about fading the public and going the other way. And while I do lean the Chiefs to win this game, I’m not confident enough to fade a Detroit team that has been an absolute cover machine. The Lions are 51-21-1 against the spread since 2021, which is the best mark in the NFL during that span.
I think the better look in this game is on the total.
The Chiefs have gotten their passing game on track the last two weeks. In the first three games of the season, Patrick Mahomes averaged just 223 passing yards with a pedestrian 3 touchdowns and 1 interception with 6 sacks taken. But over the last two games, Mahomes has averaged 294 passing yards while racking up 5 touchdowns and 1 interception while being sacked just once.
I fully expect Mahomes to eat once again tonight against a banged-up Detroit secondary.
But it’s hard to see the Lions not having another productive offensive night. They lead the NFL with 34.8 points scored per game, and with it being a pleasant evening weather-wise in Kansas City, there are no outside elements to slow them down.
The over is currently getting 56% of the bets, but it’s getting sharp action as well with 72% of the money. Sunday Night Football often features exciting games that go down to the wire, and I think we’ll get another high-scoring, thrilling affair tonight.
Pick: Over 52.5 at -115 on DraftKings (bet to 53)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer