1. From what I gather after seeing reaction to the Blues’ unfortunate dead-skunk showing in the season-opening 5-0 loss to the Minnesota Wild. There was just a little overreaction out there on the web.
– The extra-large defenseman Logan Mailloux is a bust, can’t play, careless, should be in the AHL, demote him now, fire everyone, the season is over, etc. Does this mean the Blues have their own Jordan Walker?
– The Blues traded forward Zachary Bolduc to Montreal for the privilege of giving Maillox a St. Louis uniform. Bolduc had two goals in his first two games for the Canadiens. Is this a Randy Arozarena thing?
– I appreciate those in the media who made suggestions along these lines after this sad home opener: fans, don’t panic. I guess the fella is new to these parts. Don’t panic? Blues fans? Never! Not them. That’s funny.
2. For some reason, I’m listening to Vanessa Carlton music. Yeah, I’m making a doctor’s appointment. Thanks for your concern.
3. In his first four seasons as Cardinals manager, Tony La Russa had .493 winning percentage, made the playoffs one time, had two losing seasons, and earned Manager of the Year votes in one of the four years.
4. In his first four seasons as Cardinals manager, Oli Marmol had a .502 winning percentage, made the postseason one time, had two losing seasons, and received Manager of the Year votes two times.
5. Which is another way of saying I’m still confused why so many Cardinals fans are convinced Marmol is some kind of a joke who shouldn’t be managing in the majors … even though his first four seasons on the job here were better overall than TLR’s first four seasons on the job here. And La Russa had better players from 1996 through 1999.
6. An update you didn’t ask for: we now have six cats in the Miklasz family home. We rescued our sixth cat less than two weeks ago. She was in bad shape, terribly ill. A tragedy in progress. Maybe two days, at most, from dying. It took some work, and several days in the pet hospital, receiving emergency care. But she survived, and now she’s home, and she’s well enough to sprint crazily (in that kitten way) around the room, making wild leaps onto furniture, chasing balls, doing tumbles and rollovers and having non-stop fun. She won’t leave our bed at night. She isn’t used to such peace and comfort. She is incredibly happy. Safe. Secure. Cared for. No worries, little one. You have a home.
7. I do believe Mizzou will beat Alabama …
– Trends, based on the AP Poll rankings system devised by the brilliant Steve Makinen: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 205-101 straight up (69.9%) and 179-119-8 against the spread (60.1%).
– I’ve been monitoring the sharp money to see where the investments are headed. The quants (as in quantitative analysts) are all over Mizzou to win outright or cover the 3-point spread.
8. And then there’s MIZ running back Ahmad Hardy. The nation’s best running back is special … and his speciality is avoiding tacklers, bouncing off tacklers, or bowling over tacklers. Missouri has the No. 1 ground game in the nation (via Pro Football Focus grading.) Hardy is the highest-graded back in college football. Hardy not only leads the nation in raw rushing yards, but he’s No. 1 in yards after contact and No. 1 in forced/missed tackles.
* The support system for Hardy is strong; via Sports Info Solutions the Tigers rank No. 7 among the 136 FBS programs in run-blocking grade.
* Hardy is amazing. I spent a couple of hours going through data at Sports Info Solutions because I wanted to get a sense of Hardy’s effectiveness in different types of running plays.
* Outside zone runs: 9 carries, 117 yards, 90 yards after contact.
* Stretch-play runs: 31 carries, 193 yards (6.2 yards per rush), 113 yards after contact, and a combined 16 missed or broken tackles.
* Pitch plays: 9 carries, 117 yards (9.7 yards per run.
* Inside runs: 29 carries, 167 yards (5.7 avg), 12 broken or missed tackles.
* Counter plays: 11 carries for 78 yards.
* He has the sixth-highest expected points added (EPA) when motoring on trap
* Hardy has the highest among FBS backs for his 70 percent rate of hitting the designed gap. So he’s smart and disciplined. That’s his foundation. But then you add the havoc that he creates for defenses with his immense skill to take a hit and keep moving, or the way he dodges tacklers in his path. When you have a back that hits the hole, but can also create holes where none exist – well, this is just an immensely talented back.
9. The Alabama defense can be shaky in stopping the run. According to Pro Football Focus, the Crimson Tide ranks 116th nationally with an average of 5.3 yards allowed per run and are 109th in preventing explosive runs. The front seven of Bama’s defense is banged up for this one, and they’ll be taking on a much fresher Mizzou squad.
10. Won’t Alabama put up a blockade by putting extra tacklers in the box to take Hardy down? Well … good luck.
– Hardy against six defenders in the box: 103 carries, 735 yards (7.1 avg), 461 yards after contact, 58 percent success rate, 48 broken or missed tackles, and No. 1 in the nation in Expected Points Added (EPA) against stuffed boxes.
– What about Hardy going against 7 men, 8 men, or even 9 tacklers in the box this season? Well: 73 carries, 496 yards (6.8 avg), 288 yards after contact, six touchdowns, 32 first downs, 33 missed tackles. Hardy leads the nation in rushing yards against 7-8-9 man boxes … and in yards after contact against stacked boxes.
11. One more stat for you to know: Since Kalen DeBoer replaced the retiring Nick Saban as Alabama coach before the 2024 season, the Crimson Tide has lost five games away from Bryant-Denny Stadium. In those five losses the Bama defense allowed an average of 195 yards rushing per game – and were overrun for an average of 133 yards after contact.
12. The run game should help open things for Mizzou quarterback Beau Pribula in the passing game. His accuracy has been exceptional this season; Pribula has the most accurate on-target rate of any power conference quarterback. Mizzou has been conservative about opening up for aggressive downfield throws. The Tigers could be saving that for Alabama.
13. Rankings comparison from Sports Info Solutions:
– Run defense, via points-saved metric: Mizzou No. 1, Alabama 33rd.
– Pass-rush pressure: Mizzou No. 1 at 47.6 percent, Alabama No. 61 at 28 percent.
– Pass blocking: Alabama No. 4, Mizzou 7th.
– Run blocking: Mizzou 7th, Alabama 55th.
– Opponent passer rating against the defense: Mizzou 73.5, No 16. Alabama 73.3, No. 14.
– EPA per play in pass defense: Mizzou No. 20, and Alabama No. 15. But Alabama will come out and test the Mizzou secondary … early and often.
– One other note about the passing game: among 68 power conference quarterbacks who have taken 50 percent of their team’s dropbacks this season, Pribula’s grade under pass-rush pressure is 7th best in the nation. And Ty Simpson has the 23rd best grade Interesting. The pregame narratives give Alabama a huge edge at quarterback. Maybe. The pass rush will be a factor, and Mizzou’s pass-rush metrics are clearly better than Alabama’s. We’ll learn a lot more when Saturday’s game kicks off at 11 a.m.
14. Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz is 10-3 against the spread as a home underdog since taking over the MU program in 2020.
15: Other CFB picks:
* Ohio State 30 at Illinois 17. The Illini defense has a nasty and successful blitz that harasses quarterbacks but young Ohio State quarterback Julian Saying has carved up blitzes so far this season. And can Illinois put up enough points against Ohio State’s top-nine defense? I am rooting for the Illini to pull off an upset. Probably won’t happen but I think the Illini can cover the 14.5 point spread.
* Texas 23, Oklahoma 21, in Dallas: a tight one, with the Longhorns winning on the strength of a defense that will bounce back from a poor performance at Florida. I think the Manning kid plays well in this one. I don’t have a strong preference here, but the desperation mode should get the Longhorns over the top.
* Oregon 37, Indiana 28 in Eugene. I love watching Indiana play, and their defense is better than many folks assume. But I just haven’t mustered enough confidence in the Hoosiers to take down the Ducks at Autzen Field. But Heisman Trophy candidate Fernando Mendoza is a helluva quarterback, and he can keep Indiana close until late. And Indiana looms as the best team the Ducks have played this season.
Thanks for reading and please have an enjoyable weekend!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch.
Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.