Baseball writer Katie Woo (The Athletic) asked this question in a headline over the story that went online this past Friday:
“What have the Cardinals really answered during a transition season full of questions?”
I’ll take a stab at it.
Because I love writing about Project Runway, which still has a week of baseball to go. The evaluation process keeps going … and so do I.
LEADING OFF: NOT RUNWAY GUYS
And that remains true no matter how many times the Cardinals tell us they are.
Brendan Donovan: I like him a lot as a player and a person … but he is not a “young” player who is finally getting an opportunity to play.
Donovan went into 2025 with an established history of performance at this level since his big-league promotion early in 2022.
When discussing the “Project Runway” results with the media, the Cardinals try to sneak Donovan in there, and manager Oli Marmol did it again late last week, and I have no idea why so many media go with it instead of being more discerning.
Just because the overall Project Runway for 2025 is disappointing, it’s ridiculous to try and cook the books to make the outcome look better than it is. And the media shouldn’t let that slide.
Donovan will be 29 years old next season and already has 2,000 big-league plate appearances. He isn’t, say, Thomas Saggese or Nathan Church.
Oh, and by the way … before Marmol and other Cardinals’ people go bragging about Donovan’s success in Project Runway 2025, may I point something out? Thank you.
Donovan’s wRC+ in each of his MLB seasons, on order:
27 percent above league average offensively in 2022.
18% above league average in 2023.
15% above league average in 2024.
14% above league average in 2025.
Notice the trend? But in St. Louis I guess that makes him Chase Utley.
Lars Nootbaar: he’s definitely in this category and I hereby reject him as a Project Runway contestant. Noot is 28, has been in the majors since 2021, and has 1,940 major-league plate appearances.
Nootbaar got off to a tremendous start in 2025, posting great numbers in the opening month that was reflected in a wRC+ that was 39 percent above league offense offensively.
But since the start of May, Nootbaar has a .229 average, .298 OBP, .344 slug and a wRC+ that’s 18 percent below league average offensively.
And in 113 plate appearances since Aug. 22, Nootbaar is hitting .206 with a .277 OBP and .255 slug for a wRC+ that’s 48 percent below league average offensively. This figures to be harmful to his trade value.
THE SUCCESSES
Limited, but the Cardinals have learned some things.
Let’s review the successes …
Ivan Herrera: he’s a dude, an elite hitter. The Cardinals kind of knew that already but Herrera has reaffirmed it in 2025.
Going back to the start of June 2024, when Herrera started playing more, here are his numbers over his last 132 games: in 548 plate appearances and 473 at-bats, Herrera has a .296 average, a rich .382 on-base percentage, a .471 slug and an .853 OPS.
Herrera’s wRC+ over that time is 42 percent above league average offensively. How good is that? Among MLB hitters with at least 500 plate appearances since June of 2024, Herrera’s wRC+ is better than this assortment of hitters: Bryce Harper, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Pete Alonso, Corbin Carroll, Brent Rooker, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, Gunnar Henderson, Christian Yelich, Julio Rodriguez, Riley Greene, and Jackson Chourio.
Is that good?
Alec Burleson: The Cardinals saw more power from Burleson this season. His hitting, solid in 2024, has improved in batting average and slugging in 2025. With six games remaining on the St. Louis schedule, Burleson’s overall offense has gone up 19 percent from last season, and he’s 25% above league average offensively per wRC+. This is hardly a revelation. The Cardinals already knew Burleson was a good hitter – and he’s hardly a “kid” hitter – but the big man did take it up a notch in 2025.
Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy: The Cardinals saw enough positives from the young starting pitchers to feel comfortable going forward with them in the 2026 rotation. I’ll save my more comprehensive remarks and stats for the year-end reviews that I’ll be doing during the offseason. But it was a good sign to see Liberatore pitch through fatigue issues that can be normal for a first-time starter. And McGreevy has a trend that reflects well on him.
What trend? When McGreevy has a bad start this season, he makes corrections and rebounds. Below-average starts are followed by above-average starts.
For example, when McGreevy had his career-worst Game Score (18) earlier this season, he responded by averaging an above-average Game Score of 53 over his next six starts. When McGreevy had a poor 22 Game Score on Sept. 5, he came back with an average 68 Game Score in his next two starts. That’s such a strong trait for a young starter.
Bullpen guys: good work from Matt Svanson, Kyle Leahy and Riley O’Brien. O’Brien and Leahy are both late bloomers at age 28. Svanson, 26, was pitching at the Double A level last season. Strong.
And that’s how the feel-pretty-good list looks headed into the final week of the regular 2025 season.
FAILURES
Two very large failures.
Maybe even “monumental” failures.
1. Jordan Walker. And there’s absolutely no reason to explain why. Early prediction: he’ll spend most of 2026 at Triple A, where the Cardinals now have an expanded operation that’s up to date and directed by smart people. Walker can rebuild his own career while being away from the big-league heat. I know the Cardinals are in a rebuilding mode but for an individual hitter rebuilding doesn’t have to take place in the majors.
2. Nolan Gorman. I don’t enjoy saying this, because earlier this season I believed he was on the way to becoming a smarter, more disciplined, and consistent hitter. But in his previous 29 games leading into Monday, Gorman has a .155 average, a wan .282 slug and a hideous 41 percent strikeout rate in his 103 plate appearances.
And though Gorman’s overall strikeout rate decreased by five percent this season, Gorman has drifted in the wrong direction since putting up career-best numbers in 2023.
In 2023, Gorman had a .236 average, slugged .478, generated an .805 OPS and performed 18 percent above league average offensively per wRC+.
Since the start of 2024, Gorman has a .203 average, .367 slug, .670 OPS and is 12 percent below league average offensively. Yeah, Gorman’s walk rate is fine this season – but that’s hardly enough to offset his many weaknesses.
My only questions: has Chaim Bloom seem enough to trade Gorman this coming offseason? And what is Gorman’s trade value now that he’s on the same track traveled by Joey Gallo, Chris Davis, Keon Broxton, Patrick Wisdom, Miguel Sano and so many other high-strikeout sluggers who flamed out? Hey, at least some of those guys put up massive home-run totals for a while.
VERY DISAPPOINTING
Andre Pallante: He has a 5.29 ERA this season in 30 starts. But in 13 starts since July 9, Pallante’s ERA is 6.99 and opponents have thwacked him for a 6.99 ERA, .301 batting average, .374 OBP, and .470 slugging percentage. His strikeout rate over that time is 14.5%.
The Cardinals are 11-19 when Pallante starts a game this season – and in his last 15 starts their record is 2-13. (Hint: not a coincidence.) But hey, I sure am looking forward to reading more happy-talk stories on how Pallante is working on this, working on that, tweaking …. curveball, blah, new pitch … tweaks… blah blah, tweaks … blah blah blah.
DISAPPOINTING
Victor Scott: only in his failure to improve offensively this season despite a full opportunity to get the volume of plate appearances that should lead to a more positive trend. But since May 11 – 95 games, 302 plate appearances – Scott has hit .178 with a .277 on-base percentage and .243 slug. His OPS is a gaunt .520.
Great defense? Yes. Excellent base-stealing skill? Yes. But the offense just isn’t there. And here’s another concern: Scott, who bats from the left side, is easily dominated by right-handed pitching. He started off well against the righties this season – but since the start of June Scott has batted .162 with a .518 OPS vs. righties … and his wRC+ versus righthanders over that time is 46 percent below league average offensively.
MIXED RESULTS
One guy here: catcher Pedro Pages. Does a good job of calling pitches, scouting opponents, and throwing out runners that try to steal on him. (He’s 5% above league average in this area.) When Pages catches this season, STL pitchers have a 3.96 ERA – that compared to a 4.56 when Yohel Pozo catches, 4.59 when Jimmy Crooks catches, and a 5.35 ERA when Herrera handles them. But Pages is not good at blocking pitches, and his offensive performance is 21 percent below league average.
UNDETERMINED, BUT GOOD …
That would apply to infielder Thomas Saggese. In his last 21 games (85 plate appearances) he’s batted .291 with a .341 OBP and .405 slugging percentage. I think the more this inexperienced big-leaguer plays the more we like watching him play.
UNDETERMINED, NOT SURE …
Nathan Church. The rookie outfielder runs well and can go get it defensively. And I think he’s better than he’s shown so far as a hitter. But he’s had only 61 big-league plate appearances and there’s no reason to make a judgment on such a small sample.
A few relievers: Ryan Fernandez, Gordon Graceffo, Andre Granillo, Robbery Munoz and Chris Roycroft collectively have a 6.37 ERA in 118 and ⅔ combined innings. It’s too early to completely write them off, but they’ll have to show more in 2026. It seems that Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake see Graceffo more favorably than the others.
STATUS QUO
Masyn Winn: The shortstop, age 23, isn't a runway guy. He's already established as a great defensive player, with speed. Sure he needs to become more capable offensively, and that's likely to happen.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.