When the spread opened up across various sportsbooks ahead of Mizzou’s upcoming game against South Carolina, sharp bettors sent oddsmakers reeling with big money pouring onto the Tigers.
The most obvious conclusion to draw from the influx of immediate action on Missouri was that big-time bettors believed that Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers, who departed this past Saturday’s game vs. Vanderbilt after taking some helmet-to-helmet contact, would not play in the Sept. 20 matchup in Columbia, Mo.
Circa opened -7 and the sharps bet the hell out of it. Market is telling you Sellers isn’t playing.
— Jeff Parles (@jeffparles) September 15, 2025
In his weekly Tuesday press conference, Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz described that he anticipates Sellers being available to play, which is probably the way he has to prepare his team throughout the week, just in case.
#Mizzou HC Eli Drinkwitz: “I anticipate LaNorris (Sellers) will play”
— Joey Van Zummeren (@JoeyVZ_) September 16, 2025
To be clear, I’m not terribly concerned about this turning into a Texas A&M situation. Last October, Drinkwitz insisted all week that the mobile Marcel Reed would start for the Aggies, but then pocket passer Conner Weigman ran out there and threw it all over the Tiger defense in College Station. Missouri was ill-prepared for the switch-up.
I’m not as worried about that this week because South Carolina backup Luke Doty has been used out of the backfield and in the receiving game during his many years in Columbia, S.C. He has solid athleticism and would conceivably play a similar style to the dual-threat Sellers.
But still, the first thing that jumped out to me when I saw the line at Mizzou -13.5 was… Wow, that’s a lot of points.
I like the Tigers to win this game, but you could make a case from a sports betting perspective that there's an interesting angle for South Carolina on the spread, at least early in the week. In football betting, you’re always watching the key numbers like 3, 7, 10 and 14. It’s not a coincidence that sharp bettors hammered Mizzou up until the line hit -13.5--that next threshold is a significant one to cross.
#10 Langston Patterson was ejected for targeting for this hit on LaNorris Sellers. pic.twitter.com/GuNLx0dCeB
— Im not a fan of your favorite team (@fsh733) September 14, 2025
Even if it is revealed that Sellers--whose injury wasn’t specified by Shane Beamer, but it can be assumed he is in the concussion protocol given the play that knocked him from the Vandy game--has been ruled out of the contest, I would be surprised to see the line cross -14 for this SEC game.
If Sellers somehow clears the protocol and becomes available to start, as Drinkwitz apparently expects, the line almost certainly moves a few points back toward the Gamecocks.
In fact, the number has already come down to Mizzou -11.5 at DraftKings in the hours following Drinkwitz's presser--did his words move the market, or was this simply an inevitable correction to it?
South Carolina was ranked inside the top 15 just a few days ago, and Mizzou fans should know as well as anyone how much difference a week of preparation can make for a backup quarterback compared to being thrust into a game without any notice.
Drew Pyne looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in college football history after subbing in for Brady Cook in Tuscaloosa last year, but hey, he wasn’t expecting to play that day.
Two weeks later, he guided the Tigers to a gritty win over Oklahoma, having had a week of practice to truly prepare as the starter.
Mizzou could play a great game on Saturday against South Carolina, winning by double-digits, and still fall short of covering this spread.
I’ve been pretty outspoken about the Tigers going on a CFP run this season, but man, I’m just not sure about this point spread for the Mayor’s Cup on Saturday night.