In my Thursday video here at STL Sports Central, I discussed a barren and passive Cardinals offense that’s flopped to straight to the bottom as the worst in the majors since the All-Star break.
That’s a fact-based opinion that – unlike the team’s lineup – doesn’t have holes. I’ll post those numbers in Friday’s review.
But what about the younger dudes? How are they getting through these second-half blues?
If recent trends mean anything, and they should, this “Project Runway” season isn’t going so swell lately.
I say that because some “runway” players are paramount in the current downturn of the St. Louis offense.
Only Chaim Bloom knows how he will assess the final results of the hitters’ prove-it season for 2025, but he’s taking notes.
There are 15 games to go in these auditions, and the relevant players still have a little time to alter the judges’ perceptions. But as of now, contestants are drifting down instead of rising up. Part of a runway test is establishing consistency and showing the ability to hold up over six months of baseball for a strong finish.
Just about any hitter can get hot for a week, or a month – right? But it’s a 162-game season, and all 162 count in the standings. With that in mind, let’s look at a “runway report” through a different lens.
Here are the month-by-month performances by the hitters I thought should be looked at in today’s review. In that context, I’ll include a couple of guys who are a little older and more experienced: Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar. The reason: they are potential – if not likely – trade candidates.
I’ll use wRC+ – weighted runs created plus – to save time. All you need to know is that a 100 wRC+ is average. So a hitter wants to be above 100 as much as he can … and below 100 as little as possible. So let’s look at the monthly fluctuations and do a consistency check.
I will separate the 1st half and 2nd half to show the before/after split of the All-Star break. And I’ll add some of my own observations.
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1st Half: 60 wRC+
2nd Half: 66 wRC+
Total so far: 62+
Comments: That’s a deflating breakdown. Walker was 30 percent above the league average wRC+ for July, but in all other months this season his combined wRC+ is 49 percent below league average. Over his last nine months of regular-season ball in the majors, Walker has been above average offensively in two months, has slugged no higher than .345 in six months, and has struck out at least 40 percent of the time in three months.
Consistency watch: None … unless we’re talking consistently bad.
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MASYN WINN
1st Half: 97 wRC+
2nd Half: 79 wRC+
Total so far: 91 wRC+
Comments: Winn was terrific in the first two months with a wRC+ that was 23 percent above league average offensively. But since the start of June his 73 wRC+ is 27 percent below average offensively.
Here’s another way to look at it, and part of the drop-off is related in some way to torn cartilage in his right knee. For the first four months of the season, Winn was two percent above average offensively with a 102 wRC+. But it’s been tough for Winn since the start of August; his 57 wRC+ is 43% below the league-average standard for offense.
Consistency watch: Very good in the first two months, pretty good over the first four months, and a crash over the past 42 days. But the knee discomfort has to be taken into consideration here. And even though Winn has slowed a little because of the knee, he still plays elite defense at shortstop.
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ALEC BURLESON
1st Half: 124 wRC+
2nd Half: 107 wRC+
So far this season: 118 wRC+
Comments: Overall Burleson is having a good season and that includes his improved defense at right field, left field and first base. Plus, his left-handed swing is capable of publishing lefty pitchers.
Consistency watch: Look, I have positive feelings about Burly’s 2025 season and have made that clear. But a couple of things should be pointed out here on the consistency front. From the start of May through the end of July, his wRC+ was an impressive 44 percent above league average offensively. But in the other two months of this season – including this unfinished September – Burleson’s showing is 33 percentbelow league average. And through the close of the Seattle series, Burleson has only 3 homers in his last 116 at-bats. I bring this up because I have memories of 2024, when the big man’s offense dried up to a sickly .202 average and .510 OPS in September.
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NOLAN GORMAN
1st Half: 100 wRC+ (exactly average.)
2nd Half: 93 wRC+
Total so far this season: 98 wRC+
Comments: Gorman put together three consecutive months of improved hitting in June-July-August. During that encouraging stretch his wRC+ was 20 percent above league average offensively. And he put up a .333 onbase percentage, slugged .450, and crafted a terrific 13.5% walk rate that offset some of his strikeouts.
Consistency watch: How to describe this? I would say better than I anticipated – but still erratic. Gorman’s first two months of 2025 were slow as he overhauled his plate approach, and took a more easy-swing approach … and the investment paid over that three-month splurge I just described in the section above this one. That said, Gorman has erased some of his gains with a relapse in the first nine games of September, batting .206 with an anemic .324 slug and an alarming 41.7% strikeout rate. And if we go back to Aug. 18, Gorman has a .190 average, a low slugging percentage, and an elevated strikeout rate of 38.4 percent. It’s tough to watch Gorman go back to his old ways at the plate. Can he get straight at the plate over the team’s final 15 games? And with Nolan Arenado coming back soon, how much will Gorman play? It’s been disappointing to see his slugging percentage fall to .394 for the season.
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LARS NOOTBAAR
1st Half: 103 wRC+
2nd Half: 88 wRC+
So far this season: 99 wRC+
Comments: On the surface, that looks like your basic average season. But Nootbaar made his MLB debut in 2021, and by now it would be absurd to use “average” as a word of praise. Or to signify a feeling of “hey, not so bad.” I’ll be blunt: other than Jordan Walker, no STL hitter is more disappointing than Nootbaar. He had a fantastic start to the campaign, crafting a 139 wRC+ highlighted by an 18.6 percent walk rate, a .400 OBP, .439 slugging percentage, and a low 15% strikeout rate. This was the Nootbaar the Cardinals desperately wanted to see. It didn’t last.
Consistency watch: Nootbaar has had only one slightly-above average month since the start of May, coming in at 5% above average in August. But he didn’t walk much, which suppressed his OBP. And his slug was decent but not imposing; Noot rocked just one homer in 95 August at-bats. So this is what he’s done since that hot first month: .232 average, .300 OBP, .355 slug, .655 OPS, 22% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and a wRC+ that’s 15 percent below league average. Nootbaar isn’t awful but he doesn’t get enough from his talent. Period.
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PEDRO PAGES
1st Half: 63 wRC+
2nd Half: 110 wRC+
Total so far this season: 78 wRC+
Comments: Good grief! Since the All-Star break, Pages ranks second to Willson Contreras among Cardinals in slugging percentage (.452), OPS (.761) wRC+ and Isolated Power – and he’s walloped as many homers (5) as Nolan Gorman. And Pages has hit as many homers (5) as Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn and Thomas Saggese combined. One more stat: Pages’ .269 batting average since the break is higher than that of Alec Burleson, Contreras, Winn, Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. And I’m not finished. Since the start of August Pages has a 158 wRC+ that’s the best on the team – as is his batting average (.316), OBP (.366), slug (.566), and OPS (.932). Crazy!
Consistency watch: Can Pages keep it up? Well, that’s the question. And we can learn more over the team’s final 15 games.
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BRENDAN DONOVAN
1st Half: 125 wRC+
2nd Half: 55 wRC+
Total so far this season: 112 wRC+
Comments: Donovan’s season wRC+ is 12 percent above league average, which is good, but his season can be broken into two parts. In the first two months Donny was 43 percent above league average on offense per wRC+, but since the start of June he’s batted .229 with a .640 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 19 percent under the league average.
Consistency watch: Extreme ups and downs. But the injuries certainly changed everything (for the worse) and Donovan holds a lot of responsibility for that. He tried to play through a sequence of injuries, and that turned out to be a huge mistake. The original injury (a sprained toe) led to a foot problem, and that led to a strained groin that’s limited Donovan to 36 plate appearances since Aug. 1. Manager Oli Marmol should have intervened to convince Donovan to go on the IL earlier so the toe could heal.
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IVAN HERRERA
1st Half: 159 wRC+
2nd Half: 107 wRC+
Total so far this season: 131 wRC+
Comments: Herrera is a very talented and smart hitter, and it would have been great to see him play in more than 92 games. But his participation was limited because of an early-season knee injury that caused him to miss 32 days – and then a strained hamstring that sidelined him for 23 days in June-July. Those absences disrupted Herrera’s mojo and it took him some time to tune up his power stroke after the second injury. But even with the adversity mixed in, Herrera’s 131 wRC+ is the 10th best in the majors among right-handed hitters that have at least 375 plate appearances this season. Lots of walks, a high OBP, robust power and a strikeout rate that’s below 20 percent? I’ll take that. Herrera should only get better as long as he can stay healthy.
Consistency watch: Very consistent. I’ll explain it this way. Herrera has spent 11 regular-season months with the Cardinals since the start of 2024, and here are his monthly figures (best to worst) for his wRC+ – and remember that 100 is average:
* 301
* 207
* 159
* 141
* 138
* 130
* 100
* 99
* 93
* 82
And Herrera’s weakest month (82 wRC+) came in the first month of 2024 when he was just starting out in the majors. So yeah, I’d say consistency isn’t a problem for this man.
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VICTOR SCOTT II
1st Half: 85 wRC+
2nd Half: 56 wRC+
Total so far this season: 78 wRC+
Comments: The second-year center fielder was 10 percent above the league average offensively in his first month of 2025. And Scott held his own in May and June, so over the first three months of this season Scott had a fine .330 onbase percentage and a 94 wRC+ that was only six percent below average. Nothing to complain about here. But as usual, sustaining a positive early pace is challenging. And so Scott began seeing fewer fastballs from pitchers who turned to more frequent use of changeups and spinning breaking balls.
Consistency watch: In his first month, his best month, Scott had a .336 onbase percentage. And – no surprise here – Scott had his highest monthly total for stolen bases (10) this season. The consistency and higher onbase rate will give Scott a lot more chances to swipe bases – and he’s a superb thief with a career success rate of 90.2 percent (37 of 41.) But since the start of June, Scott has a .263 onbase percentage and 47 wRC+. With his OBP dropping, Scott has only three steals since July 30. But it’s smart of the Cardinals to remain patient with a young player who gives them excellent defense and their only true stolen-base threat.
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THOMAS SAGGESE
1st Half: 60 wRC+
2nd Half: 89 wRC+
Total so far this season: 78 wRC+
Comments: The trend is encouraging. Saggesse hasn’t hit for much power, but the rookie infielder’s wRC+ has gone up by 29 percent since the start of the second half, and that’s what you look for from a young hitter: gradual improvement once he gets a fuller opportunity to play.
Consistency watch: Since the start of August, Saggese is batting .273 with a .315 OBP. That includes a .282 average, .322 OBP and seven multi-hit games in his last 30 contests. Next step, reducing a strikeout rate that’s 28.4 percent for the season and 30.5% since the start of August.
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YOHEL POZO
1st Half: 131 wRC+
2nd Half: 11 wRC+
Total so far this season: 83 wRC+
Comments: The ebullient catcher gave the Cardinals a wonderful boost early on as an impactful pinch hitter and instant-offense substitute. Before the All-Star break, Pozo batted .312 with a .505 slug, .835 OPS, four homers and six doubles. Outstanding! But it’s been a downer since the All-Star break: a .131 average, .213 slug, .398 OPS and just one homer.
Consistency watch: Well, let’s just say that reality has checked in. Pozo is a wonderful guy and a great teammate. And he was a surprisingly effective hitter for through the end of July. But since the beginning of August, Poho has a .122 average, .377 OPS, and a wRC+ that’s only 6% above the league standard.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch.
Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.