Let’s talk about Ivan Herrera. His offense has cooled considerably since returning from the injured list on July 13.
That was Herrera’s second stay on the IL this season, and since coming back he’s been learning a new position, left field. So the problem of discontinuity could be an issue.
In 128 plate appearances since July 13, Herrera has batted .243 with a .315 slugging percentage and 646 OPS. Herrera is still drawing a good share of walks, but his power has ebbed.
Since July 24 (and through Monday) Herrera had slugged .288 with one homer and two doubles in 92 plate appearances.
Here are a few observations on this talented right-handed hitter …
— Herrera has crushed left-handed pitching this season, but right-handers have quieted him. Using wRC+, Herrera is five percent below league average offensively vs. righties – and 111 percent above average against lefties. He’s punished the lefts for a .338 average and 1.140 OPS, with seven homers and four doubles in 89 plate appearances. But hitting righthanders is more of a challenge; Herrera owns a .268 average and .678 OPS against them in 2025.
— Herrera’s reduced offense vs. righties has been especially noticeable since he returned from the IL on July 13. In 96 plate appearances against them from that time, Herrera is hitting .212 against righties with a .224 slug and .518 OPS. Per wRC+, he’s 45 percent below average when facing RH pitching since returning.
— OK, so what are right-handed pitchers doing to neutralize Herrera since he rejoined the St. Louis lineup? First of all, I want to point out something: Herrera has a hard-hit rate of 52.5 percent against righties since July 13. But that doesn’t matter as much as it should because Herrera, by his standards, is struggling to make contact.
— Since July 13, when going against righties, Herrera has a 27 percent strikeout rate and a whiff-swing rate over 25%.
— Certain pitches thrown by righties have given Herrera fits.
— Against changeups he’s 1 for 7 with five strikeouts.
— Against sweepers-sliders flung by right-handed pitchers, Herrera is 2 for 21 (both singles) with a 37.5 percent strikeout rate and a 42% whiff-swing rate.
— Against four-seam fastballs, sinkers and cutters offered by RHP, Herrera isn’t striking out much, and his swing-miss rate is low. And even though his hard-hit rate on those pitches is 54.3 percent, most of those connections have resulted in ground balls.
— Herrera is 10 for 44 (.227) on four-seamers, sinkers and cutters, but nine of the hits are singles and the other went for a double. Herrera is 5 for 21 on ground balls, 0 for 3 on popups, and 0 for 5 on fly balls. He’s gotten a payoff when hitting line drives (5 for 6) but four have gone for singles.
— And while Herrera is 5 for 13 against RHP’s curves, all five hits were singles.
I don’t think any of this is a big deal. Pitchers are learning more about Herrera and finding some holes in his swing, and it’s up to him to make adjustments. This is the usual cat-and-mouse game between hitters and pitchers.
BIRD BYTES
1. Nolan Gorman update: After drawing a walk and later blasting a two-run homer to put the Marlins away on Monday night, Gorman has put together some really good numbers in his last 51 games. Of course, the whiners will obsess over strikeouts, and gosh bless them. They can’t help it … even though Gorman has reduced his strikeout rate by just under 8 percent from last season. He’s chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone, and isn’t swinging and missing as much as he has in the past, and is doing an excellent job of drawing walks.
2. In his last 51 games through Monday, Gorman batted .253 with a .344 on-base percentage and .500 slug for an .844 OPS. Per wRC+, Gorman has performed 37 percent above league average offensively over his last 180 plate appearances.
3. Since May 26, Gorman leads the Cardinals in wRC+, slugging percentage, Isolated Power, walk rate, and wOBA. And he is second in on-base percentage and Win Probably Added. During this stretch he has 11 homers – and has drilled one every 11.8 at-bats. That’s the best home-run rate on the team since May 26. He also has the best RBI rate, driving in a run every 6.2 at-bats.
4. Yeah, I know … strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts. Yep. Got it. Better get rid of this dude and take him out of a lineup that is pathetically devoid of power.
5. Because Gorman has drawn so many walks since May 26, his strikeout-walk ratio is the fourth best among St. Louis lineup regulars and better than that of Herrera, Masyn Winn and Lars Nootbaar over that time. Hey, walks are good!
6. Since May 26, Gorman has a .253 average, .844 OPS and is 37 percent above league average offensively per wRC+. And since May 26, Brendan Donovan has a .236 average, .665 OPS and is 12 percent below league average offensively.
7. Monday evening at Miami, Gorman hit his 5th homer of the year against a left-handed pitcher – the most he’s done that in a big-league season. Gorman is now slugging .458 vs. lefties this season and is 12 percent above league average offensively against them.
8. Gorman, who bats left, has just as many home runs against left-handed pitchers this season as right-handed batter Willson Contreras. And among the Cards’ left-handed batters, Gorman leads with five homers, 16 RBIs, a .458 slug, .762 OPS and 112 wRC+ vs. lefty pitchers. This season Gorman has slugged a home run off a lefty pitcher every 11.8 at-bats.
9. Pedro Pages: Kudos to the Cardinals catcher; over his last 11 games he’s batted .429 with three homers, three doubles and 10 RBIs. Outstanding.
10. Lars Nootbaar is looking better at the plate, and he’s made some nice running catches in the outfield. Since returning from the IL on Aug. 2, Noot is batting .298 with a .426 slug. But one thing he needs to do: draw some walks and get on base more frequently. He had 13 strikeouts and no walks in his first dozen games back from the hurting list.
11. Alec Burleson: through Monday, Burly hit .301 with an .832 OPS (and three homers) in his last 20 games … and has a .372 average and .901 OPS in his last 11 contests.
MARMOL ON PUJOLS & MOLINA
In an interview for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic asked Cardinals manager Oli Marmol a question about Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina and their desire to manage in the majors. “I’m sure they would both love to manage this team,” Rosenthal told Marmol. How do you deal with that?”
Here’s Marmol’s answer, in full:
“I’m not sure how this will be perceived. But my faith is very important to me. If I’m supposed to have this seat, then I’ll have it. And if I’m not supposed to have it, there’s not a person in the world that can keep me here.
“So, I don’t spend any time thinking about what if. It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t. For me to sit here and think I know what’s best for my next 10 years would be very naive. I show up. I make sure my staff knows I have their back and our players know I have theirs. We go at this together, and then I do it the next day and the next day. And, at some point, if someone doesn’t want me to continue to do it, it will be just fine.
“I love AP. I talk to him often. I love Yadi. I just had him sit with me in the dugout [during the Cubs series.]
“I think both of them can be not just good managers, but incredible managers in this league for as long as they want to do it and deal with the criticism that comes with the seat.
“That doesn’t impact me in any way. It truly doesn’t. I’ve had people call BS on that, and then the longer they’re around me, they’re like, “I feel like you’re genuine.” I really am. I know what I bring to the table. I know what I’m good at. I know what I’m not. I’m comfortable with all of it.”
JOE SHEEHAN ON STL’S ATTENDANCE ISSUES
When asked about the much smaller crowds at Busch Stadium this season, the baseball analyst offered his opinion as part of the Joe Sheehan newsletter.
“I’m a little surprised by how unsticky their attendance has been – given, what, (a nearly) a 30-year run of success? I thought they had built more goodwill,” Sheehan wrote.
“For a while now, though, they have been content to aim for 85 wins and see what happens. They have failed to develop stars that might have brought people to the park in lieu of big free-agent moves. There’s real disdain for the DeWitt family, and that finally has been felt at the gate.
“They’re down 25% over two years, a staggering drop. As you note, even that may not get at the depth of the losses, as the turnstile attendance — a number we never see — appears to be even lower.
“I’ve criticized Cards fans in the past. They were losing their minds in 2023 when the team had its first losing season since 2007. I think they’ve gotten very spoiled, and while I don’t love John Mozeliak’s last few years, the Cardinals have generally spent commensurate with their market size.
“The Cards’ product the last few years, though, hasn’t been all that attractive. They need Jordan Walker or Nolan Gorman or someone like that to take a leap, both for on-field reasons and to provide the team some identity.”
You should subscribe to Joe’s newsletter. For more info visit JoeSheehan.com
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast at least once per week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” show with Bernie and Randy Karraker every Friday morning at 10:30 am on STL Sports Central.