As Chaim Bloom nears moving-in day as the new president of baseball operations for your St. Louis Cardinals, I had a thought in mind.
I’m looking forward to the opening of the Bloom Season with more enthusiasm than I felt before the opening of the 2025 Cardinals baseball season.
It should be a busy offseason as the new leader takes office. We see the spring as a time of growth, optimism and the freshness of new beginnings. The baseball offseason?
Well, for baseball fans it’s the fifth season that goes with spring, summer, fall and winter. And in baseball’s offseason, all sorts of ideas are put into circulation, and some of those concepts turn into action, and a new-look team can sprout.
So there’s plenty of work to do in the baseball garden – yes, even in the winter.
Can the Cardinals gather prospects and let them bloom?
What we think we know
Bloom will have to offload at least one left-handed hitter, and probably two left-handed hitters, to reduce the overstock, and unclog the seemingly endless positional congestion.
I’m told that you can find “The Clearly Impossible Puzzle” for purchase online, and I assume it comes with a copy of the 2025 St. Louis Cardinals roster.
For this parlor game, I’ll focus on the Cardinal colony of left-handed hitters.
Who are the trade candidates?
I’ll list them alphabetically -- with two "future" Cardinals at the end. I am not a professional talent scout, and I make no predictions, and any snarky comments inserted by me should not be taken as an insult. It’s Friday afternoon and I wanna have fun.
ALEC BURLESON
Maybe he’ll be traded; I don’t have a good read on the situation. Burleson has worked hard to improve his defense at first base and in the corner outfield spots, especially left field.
Burleson’s contact skills are terrific and I believe MLB teams will put more emphasis on that over the next few years (at least) so that could make Burly more attractive on the trade market. I could be wrong but I’m thinking Bloom will value a high-contact rate more than a lot of dudes who evaluate talent.
His power is coming on; Burly has a .433 slugging percentage over the last two seasons and he’s ratcheting offensively in most of the areas that matter. (He does need to draw more walks.)
And Burleson’s swing decisions – which are turning smarter – could really launch him to reach a higher level of production. Over the last two seasons, when Burleson swings and connects on a pitch and puts it in fair play, he’s batted .310 with a .509 slugging percentage, 46 percent strikeout rate – and blasted 33 homers and 37 doubles in 665 at-bats.
BRENDAN DONOVAN
Somewhere between “likely” and “most likely” to be traded. OK, let me have some fun here.. Trading him would upset a high percentage of Cardinals fans. He’s good, he’s lovable, he’s popular, and he’s also overrated locally.
With the dearth of starpower in this franchise, Donny has been turned into a BFIB fantasy version of Chase Utley. If the Redbirds trade Donny, overwrought fans will call this the work of the devil – and the team’s worst deal since the future Hall of Fame starting pitcher Steve Carlton was swapped to the Phillies for starter Rick Wise on Feb. 25, 1972. I’m kidding about that … or maybe not.
Here’s why I think Donovan is the most likely LH batter to be traded:
1) The Cardinals are rebuilding. Donovan is making $2.8 million this season in his first arbitration year. That salary will jump quite a bit in 2026, and rise again in 2027, and Donovan can become a free agent before the 2028 campaign. By the time he reaches free agency, Donovan will be in his age 31 season.
2) If the Cardinals want to sign him to a contract that would cover his remaining arbitration years and his first year of free agency, the time to do it is now, because Donny will be 29 by the start of the ‘26 season. But even then, I’m not sure if Bloom wants to make such an investment. Donovan plays hard, he plays a lot, he’s tough, he doesn’t like days off, he throws his body around, and he gets banged up. He's been bothered for much of the season by toe, foot and ankle ailments and is out of the lineup again now. Donovan's offensive performance has steadily deteriorated since early June, but the Cardinals are ignoring the obvious and keep rushing him back into the lineup, anyway. (Since the All-Star break, Donovan has a .203 average and .264 onbase percentage and isn't covering as much ground defensively.
The physicality of Donovan's play will increase the injury risk as he ages and impact his performance. He should be on the IL now, because all of these injuries are connected to each other, but in their usual bizarre thinking, the Cardinals won't put him on the IL to let him finally heal up, and so he comes back too soon, and then he hobbles off again. If other teams begin to notice Donny's injury-related concerns, his trade value could be dropping as we speak. Then again, I assume most MLB teams are smarter about how they handle player injuries.
3) The team’s No. 1 prospect, JJ Wetherholt, is a second baseman. Donovan is a second baseman. But the Cardinals will be building around Wetherholt, who profiles as an excellent leadoff hitter. And unless the Cardinals are nuts, they’ll want to do what’s best for JJ.
Donovan can play in left field, but he’s below-average there defensively this season. His defense at second base has been average. He can play some shortstop, and that’s a plus. I suppose he could be used at third base, which is another plus.
4) Donovan’s positional versatility figures to be a huge plus in the trade marketplace. A lot of teams covet super-utility dudes that can move around. Most teams play with short benches, so positional flexibility has real value. Donovan’s value should be high right now, but what do we think about the future?
The ZiPS forecast shows Donovan finishing with about 3.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) by the end of this season. ZiPs then forecasts a drop in WAR for Donovan in 2026, and then again 2027. If the forecasts are close to being on target, Donovan will not be a two-WAR player in 2027. And the forecasts also show a drop in offensive performance in each of the next two seasons.
5) My point? If Wetherholt on the way, and the injuries are an issue, and Donovan’s value is likely to drop over the next two seasons, and the Cardinals won’t get as much in return for him if that happens, and there are no plans by the Cardinals to give him a contract extension that would push into 2028 or beyond ... well, then why wouldn’t the team trade him when his value is still relatively good?
That’s a pragmatic view. And hardly a mess of hot-take nonsense. I think it’s just simple common sense. Under Bloom the Cardinals have to avoid making the kind of mistakes they’ve made in the recent past by dishing out contracts that sour. It's imperative for the Cardinals to stop overrating their own players. And Fredbird media probably should mention Donovan's age. Hint: he isn't a "runway" season player, OK?
The good folks would be outraged (or whatever) by a Donovan trade apparently are struggling to understand what a rebuild is all about. It has little to do with next season, or the season after that – it’s about the long view.
NOLAN GORMAN
Possibly traded – and that would be dangerous. It would go one of two ways.
Something BIG.
A big mistake, or a big decision that pays off if the Cardinals receive a nice return on Gorman and he doesn’t make them regret it by bombing away – instead of bombing out – for a new team.
We all know what could happen if the Cardinals unplugged the cord on Gorman’s development, and traded him: Boom goes the dynamite. He’d wallop 30 home runs for his new employer, and thousands of columns and stories, blogs and talk-show vocalists and X addicts would erupt with an endless stream of caterwauling.
The Cardinals are idiots!
What were they thinking!
This is Chaim Bloom and Mookie Betts all over again!
I told everybody it would be an EPIC mistake to trade Gorman!
(At that point, a friend or family member would show the hot-take dispenser the dozens of tweets on X that implored the Cardinals to dump Gorman as soon as possible, with the same demand repeated every time Gorman whiffed. And what would be the response to this clear and contradictory evidence?)
“Hey, my X account must have been hacked!”
Gorman just turned 25 and he’s made progress this season.
Facts are my buddies, so let put a number on it:
-- Strikeout rate, down 7.2%
-- Walk rate, up, 3.4%
-- Chase rate, down 7.7%
-- Overall contact rate, up 8%
-- Contact rate on strikes, up 5%
-- Swinging-strike rate, down 5.3%
It’s fascinating to me, the way these obvious signs of progress continued to be largely disregarded by the masses. In his last 49 games (since late May), Gorman leads St. Louis hitters in slugging percentage, OPS, wRC+, walk rate and wOBA and is second in onbase perecentage. During this stretch Gorman leads the team with a home-run ratio of a homer every 15 at-bats. He has only one fewer home run than Willson Contreras and Alec Burleson over this time but both of those guys have ht
Despite all of Gorman’s contact issues and faulty swing judgments that have held him back since his 2022 debut in the majors, the slugger is still slightly above average offensively for his career, he still has a .430 slugging percentage, and he’s homered an average of every 18.2 at-bats.
Gorman has slugged .440 against righty pitching during his big league time, and he’s better against lefties than people assume.
For a team that’s so pathetically short of power, and with Gorman showing signs of figuring out the important stuff offensively, I just hope the Cardinals will be careful before settling on a decision to trade him.
Of course, much of this depends on what a team offers Bloom for him.
For all of you who are disappointed in Gorman’s third-base defense, let me say this. They're calling it a "runway" season so playing Gorman at 3B fits the gameplan. Beyond that, I’m not sure why Oli Marmol is resistant to making Gorman his full-time DH against right-handed starting pitchers, because that's an optipn.
In his last 50 games at DH, when facing a right-handed pitcher, Gorman has a .348 OBP, .481 slug, .829 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 27 percent above league average offensively. Well, isn’t that what you want? You know … strong numbers from a designated HITTER?
No defense required!
LARS NOOTBAAR: A likely trade piece, but the Cardinals may have waited too long to maximize Noot’s value. The Statcast Hall of Famer is having a down season that includes a .230 average, a mediocre .326 OBP and an OPS+ that’s basically league average.
Potential trade partners may have anxiety about Noot's injury history; since the start of the 2023 season, the outfielder has gone onto the Injured List six times for a total of 123 days missed.
Incoming snark alert!
(Perhaps the Cardinals could include one of their trainers in the deal to give Nootbaar’s new team some help in rehabbing his injuries. The trainer guy who always angles himself in the dugout to be seen on TV? Yeah, that one.)
Nootbaar has plenty of talent. And when he’s healthy and synchronized, Nootbaar is capable of delivering outstanding impact. But he just hasn’t been able to get to the starting gate enough to give the Cardinals a successful return on their patience.
But he can really play when he plays! I’m not saying Lars is on a path to Cooperstown, or even an All-Star game. But since the start of the 2021 season, 272 major-league outfielders have logged at least 1,700 plate appearances.
And among the 272, Nootbaar ranks 25th in onbase percentage, No. 30 in WAR, 42nd in wRC+, and 49th in OPS. And his slugging percentage is virtually equal to that of Burleson. If this organization could develop power elsewhere, having a corner outfielder with those kind of stats would be dandy.
When he can play, of course.
VICTOR SCOTT II: I’m not giving up on Scott, but I suppose there’s a chance of a trade. OK, who would play center field? Could Chaim Bloom find a suitable replacement? Is Bloom willing to part with Scott’s defense?
This much is certain: over the last two seasons St. Louis centerfielders have combined for a .222 average, .289 OBP, and have the worst slugging percentage (.293) and OPS (.582) among major-league center-field groups.
Per wRC+, Scott is 33 percent below league average offensively in his 502 MLB plate appearance as a center fielder. Sure, it’s swell to give him time to develop offensively, but what’s the upside? Scott’s stolen-base work is very good, but the team (overall) is lousy at stealing bases. Does that mean Vic is more valuable? Or does it mean that, during the rebuild, the Cardinals will actually try to upgrade the speed and athleticism of their offense?
Let's look ahead a bit ...
LEFT-HANDED BATS IN THE NEAR FUTURE
JJ WETHERHOLT: Trade him? Wild, boisterous, hysterical, insane laughter.
NATHAN CHURCH: The speedy, spray-hitting outfielder was promoted by St. Louis on Sunday morning after the Cardinals placed center fielder Victor Scott on the IL with a sprained ankle. Church, 25, was having a stellar season in the minors, putting up outstanding numbers at Double A Springfield and Triple A Memphis. In his 53 games with Memphis since moving up from Springfield, Church has a .335 average, .400 onbase percentage and .521 slug for a .921 OPS. Church is more of a gap hitter than a straight-up power bat, but there's nothing wrong with his mix of doubles, triples and homers. What he does best: excellent contact skills and plate discipline. At the time of his call-up from Memphis, Church had just 10.3% strikeout rate -- with a 10% walk rate to match. He can also steal some bases, and can patrol all outfield spots, and center field isn't a problem for him. Church bats left-handed, which only adds to the excess of LH batters on the major-league roster. So I'll go back to something I wrote/discussed a few times earlier this season: Church was getting close to the majors, his promotion was only a matter of time, and this was another reason why the Cardinals are likely to trade a left-handed hitting outfielder after the season. Church could be a trade candidate, but a lot would depend on the Cards' internal view of his career upside as a major-league hitter.
Final note: the Cardinals will have to trade a catcher soon, in large part because they have three catchers among their Top 10 prospects in the system. I plan to write about that at a later date.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie happily does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. You can also catch Bernie every Friday morning (10:30 a.m.) as a guest on the Randy Karraker Show here on our site.