During Thursday’s Gashouse Gang on KMOX, a listener asked a good question that tapped into the frustration over the Cardinals’ volatile, topsy-turvy, up-and-down, hot-and-cold season.
Interesting article in PD today about (the) Birds’ record since July vs losing teams - hard to believe and who is accountable? We’d have a (wild-card) spot now if we simply played .500 vs them.
I loved the question, because I’ve often experienced the same feelings of exasperation when watching the Cardinals play.
They change shapes. They change identities. They win when we least expect it. They lose when we don’t see it coming. When they are fading into failure, they suddenly awaken. When they are flying high, they crash.
Win the season series from the Dodgers and the Phillies? Hey, no problem for the Cardinals. Consider it done.
Lose the season series to the Rockies? Wait … what?
The Cardinals are two different teams.
And the two different Cardinals teams have combined for a 61-61 record.
Seems about right, yes?
The way I see it, the Cardinals aren’t good enough to dominate their seemingly inferior opponents. But these Redbirds also have enough talent to rise up on occasion and knock down superior teams.
It’s wild that the Cards went 8-4 against the Phils and Dodgers in 2025. It’s wacky that the Cards lost four of six to the Rockies.
What’s up with this split–personality ballclub?
The Cardinals lack elite talent.
How many high-end players do they have? Sonny Gray? You mean the starting pitcher who owns an adjusted ERA that’s only 3 percent better than league average?
Shortstop Masyn Winn? Sure, absolutely elite … on defense.
Ivan Herrera? The potential is there for elite-class offense. But two separate injuries disrupted his flow. Since returning from his second IL stay, Herrera has a .337 slug, .676 OPS and two home runs in 95 at-bats.
Brendan Donovan? A lot of fans and media seem to think he’s elite or something close to it. But for all of his attributes, Donny currently has an OPS+ that is 12 percent above league average; that would be his lowest in an MLB season.
Willson Contreras? One of my favorite players. But compared to 2024, his on-base percentage is down 36 points, his slugging percentage is down 25 points, his OPS has dropped 61 points, and his OPS+ is 16 points lower. Contreras leads the Cards with 16 home runs – which ranks 66th in the majors.
The Cardinals are too vulnerable in important areas.
It’s difficult to have consistent success when the difference between winning and losing is as thin as a blade of outfield grass. If your team lacks power and speed and actual (not imagined) skill to play small ball … Well, good luck with an offense that doesn’t have enough ways to consistently score runs.
I’m not exaggerating here. The Cardinals are 24th in the majors in slugging, 26th in homers, 28th in Isolated Power, 28th in team speed, 23rd in the quality of base running, 21st in stolen bases, 26th in productive-out percentage, 23rd in sacrifice-bunt success rate.
The starting pitching is a big problem. Duh.
Yes, I’m telling ya what you already know but just to update: Cardinal starting pitchers rank 25th in starting pitching ERA (4.60) and 29th in strikeout rate (29%). They’ve also posted the sixth-poorest ERA in the first three innings in the ballgame.
And the trend is depressing. In their 37 games since June 30, St. Louis starters have a 6.01 ERA, rank 21st for most innings pitched, and have turned in only nine quality starts.
Our friendly TV people are so desperate to dish something positive, they’ve been vociferating about Miles Mikolas having a 3.56 ERA at home this season. That’s nice, but is it OK to mention that he has a 6.47 road ERA? So what is the point? Are the Cardinals gonna bring ol’ Miles back in 2026 and only pitch him at Busch Stadium?
(Note to self: Hey, grumpy-ass Miklasz, quit picking on Chip, BT and The Cat. They’re good dudes. And they don’t have an easy job right now.)
The Cardinals are losing so many games to losing teams.
Is it, as our KMOX listener said, hard to believe?
Respectfully, no.
It isn’t hard to believe.
Since June 30 – when their season began to crumble – the Cardinals have a record of 14-23 for a .378 winning percentage.
Among NL teams, only the Rockies (13-23) and Nationals (13-23) have done worse than St. Louis since the final day of June.
The Cardinals reached a season-peak of nine games over .500 (47-38) by completing a sweep at Cleveland on June 29. But after that, the STL season took a jagged turn.
Since their free-fall began June 30, the Cardinals have cracked in two critical areas.
The Cards have scored the fewest runs in the majors and rank 25th among 30 teams with that aforementioned 6.01 starting-pitching ERA.
No big-league offense has been shut out more times (8) than St. Louis over the last 45 days, and only one team has allowed seven or more runs in a game with greater frequency than St. Louis.
So, considering all of that, why should we be surprised by the Cards’ habit of repeatedly coming up short against so-called lesser opponents?
Beginning with a series at Pittsburgh that launched June 30, the Cardinals have a 4-14 record in 18 games against teams that currently hold a losing record: Pirates, Braves, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies.
The Cards lost all six series they played against this set of opponents – clubs that collectively have a .418 winning percentage and are 99 games under .500.
The Cardinals didn’t just lose; they were usually embarrassed.
* The Pirates pitched three consecutive shutouts against them.
* In getting kicked around during an 0-3 visit to Arizona, the Cardinals were outscored 22-7 – and the STL pitchers had a 15.00 ERA in the first three innings of those beatdowns.
* The Rockies shut out the Redbirds twice while winning four of six games. These were the only shutouts spun by the Rockies over their last 239 regular-season games. The Cards were the victim both times.
* In the two-city visit that followed the All-Star break, the Cardinals lost five of six at Arizona and Colorado and were outscored 38-17 in the six games.
* After losing the first game of a set at Busch Stadium, the Marlins won the series by shutting out the Cardinals in back-to-back games.
* In the 18 games against this group of losing teams, St. Louis starters had a 6.35 ERA in 90 and ⅔ innings. And the starters’ collective 7.00 ERA in the first three innings of the 18 contests created early deficits for a weak STL offense.
* In all, hitters for the Pirates, Rockies, Braves, Marlins and Diamondbacks batted .298 with a .481 slugging percentage and 15 home runs against St. Louis starting pitchers.
* In winning only four of 18 games from the Pirates, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Braves and Marlins, the St. Louis hitters averaged 2.6 runs per game, batted .234, slugged .341, had only 9 home runs in 590 at-bats and hit .193 with runners in scoring position.
* I mean, seriously … nine home runs in 590 at-bats in those games against the Rockies, Braves, Diamondbacks, Pirates and Marlins? An average of one homer every 65.5 at-bats? Do the Cardinals need a set of new bats? No, it ain’t the lumber. They need a set of better hitters.
When the Cardinals play at their best, they’re just like any other team – meaning that they are capable of defeating any opponent, including the best-in-show teams.
But when the Cardinals struggle and can’t bring their “A” game …
Well, they get a lot of “F” grades.
This isn’t as much about the quality of the opponents.
This is more about the quality of the Cardinals.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie happily does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. You can also catch Bernie every Friday morning (10:30 a.m.) as a guest on the Randy Karraker Show here on our site.