The Cardinals rallied late Monday for a 3-2 victory over Colorado in a game played before 23,547 empty seats at Busch Stadium.
Playing in front of a sea of red seats and another teeny-weeny crowd, the Cardinals remained unfazed by the scarce fan support and fought through to avoid an embarrassing loss to a Colorado company that’s 30-88 overall this season … and has savored success in only 14 of 60 road games.
With the win, the Cardinals made progress in the spat for the NL’s third wild-card spot and trail the current card-holder Mets by 3 games.
This strange but intriguing season continues.
Despite ranking 30th (last) in the majors in runs scored per game and 28th in starting-pitching ERA (6.05) since June 30, the Redbirds are still pecking away at the wild-card deficit.
This here is a stubborn group of men. Instead of packing it in after three of their important relievers packed up and went to new teams at the trade deadline, the Cardinals have declined to buckle under. They’re 6-4 since the trade market closed and have won five of their last seven games.
Monday’s game was interesting, at least to me. The curiosity awakened hours before the first pitch when word came out about Jordan Walker being excluded from the starting lineup despite batting .333 with an .842 OPS in his previous 19 games.
This decision annoyed me, but I did find a way to maintain a little dignity instead of going to the “X” social-media hangout to bray like a rabid jackass. But you should know this: in the privacy of my own home, I dispensed a lot of hot and fake outrage over manager Oli Marmol’s decision to seat Walker in the dugout.
My brief impersonation of an unhinged loon did not impress Mrs. Bernie. She told me to shut up and quit making a damn fool of myself because the manager knows more than I do.
Marmol redeemed himself by managing on the edge – and superbly – down the stretch of Monday’s narrow victory.
Let’s go through this for a couple of minutes …
* Brendan Donovan was out of the lineup for the third straight day because of a strained groin, leaving the Cardinals a man down on the position-player roster.
* The population of available hitters decreased by one in the top of the sixth inning when Lars Nootbaar had to exit the pitch because of a left-knee contusion caused by a fouled-off pitch that smashed into his leg in the third.
* Walker entered the competition at that point. The substitution left No. 2 catcher Yohel Pozo and spare outfielder Garrett Hampson as the only position players in reserve with four innings to play. Both would later be deployed.
* Marmol and Donovan agreed: the pained Donovan could be used for one at-bat. And Marmol picked a great spot for that occasion, using Donovan to pinch-hit for Pedro Pages in the bottom of the eighth. After falling behind 0-2 on the count – and then 1-2 – Donovan winched a slider into the right-field corner for a two-run double that hoisted the home team to a 3-2 lead.
* Marmol also used Hampson (pinch runner) and Pozo (pinch hitter) in the bottom of the 8th. Oli was out of position players, but Donovan offered to play an inning in the field, so he stayed in the game and took over at second base. Pozo pinch hit for Victor Scott and smoked a line drive that went for an out. Hampson stayed in the game, taking over for Scott in center. Nolan Gorman had been pulled for a pinch runner, so Thomas Saggese moved from second base to third, and Donovan plugged in at second.
* The bullpen was another challenge for the manager’s late-inning maneuvering. Riley O’Brien and the lone lefty, JoJo Romero, were off limits after working in two of the three weekend games against the Cubs. What to do?
* Marmol confidently put the game in the right palm of reliever Kyle Leahy, who took over in the 7th after starter Miles Mikolas yielded two runs. The Rockies had a 2-1 lead and a chance to increase it to 3-1, but Leahy got the Cardinals out of the tight spot to end the frame. The Irishman then handled the final two innings allowing a single. In a fantastic closing statement Leahy subdued the Rockies over the final 2 and ⅓ innings, returning seven of eight batters faced.
That’s how Marmol and his players defused an emergency and scratched out a one-run victory.
In their five wins during the current stretch, the Cardinals won three by a single run. After going 0-5 in their first five one-run decisions of the season, the Cardinals are 19-10 in their last 29 one-run games. The bullpen is an essential reason for success in these close calls.
And I still think Jordan Walker should have started Monday’s game, but that doesn’t mean I’ll go pant-hooting about it on “X.”
STATE OF THE CARDINALS
– 61-59 record, .508 winning percentage, 8th in the NL and tied for 15th overall.
– The Cards are three games in arrears to the Mets, and one game in back of the Reds, in the caveman scrum for the 3rd NL wild card.
– According to Neil Paine’s ELO ratings, St. Louis has a 10.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. Clay Davenport gives the Cards a 13.6 percent postseason probability. Baseball Reference checks in with an 11.7% playoff shot for El Birdos.
– Despite going 6-4 since the trade deadline the Cardinals are still trying to scale their way out of a gorge. Since sweeping the Guardians in Cleveland on the final weekend of June, the Redbirds are 14-21 since June 30 for a .400 winning percentage that’s tied for 11th in the NL.
– There was no victory off the field, as the Cards slipped back to No. 19 in the 30-team ranking for average tickets sold per home game in 2025. Their stay in 18th place didn’t last long.
– The Rockies may have lost Monday’s match, but the Rox have braggin’ rights because they’re drawing more fans to their home games at Coors Field than the Cardinals are attracting to home games at Busch Stadium.
– Monday’s jubilation gave the Cardinals a 35-25 record at Bush Stadium.
– The Cardinals have 29 comeback wins this season – tied for 5th most among National League clubs.
– According to Baseball Reference, the Cardinals have 19 blown leads this season. Among NL teams only the Brewers have fewer blown leads with 16.
A STATISTIC THAT MAY ONLY INTEREST ME
The Cardinals are a +10 in comeback wins and blown leads. That’s the number if you take their total comebacks (29) and subtract the blown leads (19.) Only two National League teams have a better ratio than that: Dodgers (+17) and Brewers (+14.)
BARNEY, EVERYBODY KNOWS OLLIE MARSHMALLOW IS THE WORST MANAGER IN BASEBALL
Hey, welcome to a new feature here in The Review! I’m your host, and it’s OK to refer to me as Barney!
Herschel Walker called me Barney when I covered the Dallas Cowboys as beat writer for the Dallas Morning News back in 1988. Coach Tom Landry, bless him, called me “Michaels” because he had difficulty sussing out my last name. Just thinking back to coach referring to me as “Michaels” makes me smile.
Barney Michaels.
I’ll take it!
Is Marmol a bad manager? No, I don’t think he is. I disagree with him on some of the usual things that generate criticism of every manager that’s ever had the job. (Lineups, pitching changes, etc.) But that doesn’t mean I think Marmol is a bad manager. Because – believe it or not! – all managers screw up stuff.
If he was such a rotten manager, then why are the Cardinals outperforming their metrics for a second consecutive season? That’s really hard to do.
I think he’s doing a good job of managing a half-and-half sort of team that is sort of trying to rebuild and sort of trying to win in the same year. And with the conflicting goals set by ownership-management, it isn’t easy for a skipper to navigate. Not with a roster of misfit toys and an outdated starting rotation that contains little firepower or depth.
The Cardinals have a negative run differential of minus 17 this season. Based on that, their current record should be 58-62. But the Cardinals are three games better above that at 61-59.
Last season, based on a minus 47 run differential, the Cardinals should have had a record of 76-86. Instead, they fared seven games ahead of that at 83-79.
So if we combine 2024 and 2025, the Cardinals are a minus 64 in run differential and should have a .475 winning percentage.
Ah, but their actual winning percentage is .511.
That’s a big difference.
In his first four seasons as St. Louis manager, Tony La Russa had a .493 winning percentage, one playoff team, and two losing seasons.
With 42 games to go in his fourth season as Cards manager, Marmol has a .508 winning percentage, has made the playoffs one time and has one losing season. (Both could change by the end of the season.)
Trust me, I was there. And TLR had more established talent to work with – pitching and hitting – from 1996 through 1999 than Marmol has worked with from 2022 through 2025.
And Marmol’s winning percentage is (so far) 15 percentage points higher than TLR’s at the same point of their careers as STL manager?
A bad manager doesn’t do that. But feel free to believe as you wish. I’ll stick with my little book of facts.
THE BULLPEN STORY
Since the start of the 2024 campaign, the Cardinals rank 10th among 15 teams in runs scored and are 9th in on-base percentage, 10th in slugging, 12th in homers, and 12th in stolen bases.
On the pitching side, over the last two seasons the Cardinals rank 11th among the 15 teams in starting-pitcher ERA.
And all of this is happening during a transition period for the franchise. So with the rotation and the offense malfunctioning – which is more about talent than anything – then why do the Cardinals have a winning record over the last two seasons?
Bullpen.
That’s why.
The bullpen managed by Marmol.
I covered a lot of this in my Tuesday video at STL Sports Central, but it’s worth repeating here.
Despite a deeply problematic roster and being caught in the middle of a front-office regime change, the Cardinals have avoided an ugly collapse because of a bullpen that converts late-inning leads into wins. And it is a bullpen that makes many of their comeback wins possible.
Let’s break this down, shall we?
1. Since the start of 2024, the St. Louis bullpen leads the National League with a 3.37 ERA in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings (combined.)
2. Over the last two seasons, the STL bullpen ranks 5th in the majors for best overall ERA and is even better (3rd) in fielding independent ERA.
3. And over the last two seasons the Cardinals have a bullpen that limits home runs per nine innings (No. 2 ranking) and is stingy with walks (also No. 2).
4. Also over the last two seasons: the Cardinals are 102-14 when leading a game through the sixth inning … and 113 and 6 when leading through seven innings … and 122 and 3 when leading after the eighth inning. How can you realistically do better than that?
5. These trends have continued over the first 10 games since the trade deadline. Despite subtracting relievers Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz and Phil Maton in deadline deals, the Cardinals remain rigid in defending leads.
That can change, of course. Some slip-ups are inevitable, and having only one lefty reliever in the bullpen leaves the Cardinals vulnerable. But as of this writing, the Cards haven’t coughed up any late leads during their post-deadline schedule.
Since the trade deadline:
– The Cardinals are 3 and 0 when leading through six innings.
– 3 and 0 when leading through seven innings.
– And 5 and 0 when leading through 8 innings.
– In addition the Cardinals haven’t lost any game that was tied after the sixth inning.
Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake have rearranged the bullpen and set up more important roles to relievers such Kyle Leahy, Riley O’Brien and Matt Svanson. That lefty, JoJo Romero, has been given the chance to close out games; the same applies to O’Brien. It will be a challenge for these guys to hold up, and Romero’s strikeout rate is dropping. There’s a clear need for a second left-handed reliever.
THE BULLPEN AND 1-RUN GAMES
As I mentioned earlier, the Cardinals are 3-0 in one-run games since the deadline.
That falls into line with what we’ve seen over the last two seasons – with a deep bullpen showing the way. And this is also an indication of Marmol’s skill at managing a bullpen.
Last season the Cardinals were 29-22 in one-run games. That ranked 5th overall and 2nd in the National League.
This season, despite going 0-5 in their first one-run decisions – when the bullpen got bombed out early in the schedule – the Cardinals are 19 and 10 in their last 29 one-run games for an overall 19-15 mark in one-run contests for the season.
Put it all together and the Cardinals are 14 games over .500 (41-27) in one-run games since the start of last season. With the Cardinals’ sketchy offense, that record in one-run decisions is difficult to engineer without a formidable bullpen and a manager who knows what he’s doing.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie happily does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. You can also catch Bernie every Friday morning (10:30 a.m.) as a guest on the Randy Karraker Show here on our site.