Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (59-59) vs Chicago Cubs (67-49)
Time: 6:10pm CT Sunday
How to watch: ESPN
Probable pitchers: Sonny Gray (10-5, 4.21 ERA) vs Shota Imanaga (8-4, 3.12 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cubs -121, Cardinals -101
Total: 7.5 (over -109, under -111)
Cards, Cubs Decide Series At Busch
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will play the rubber game of their three-game series tonight at Busch Stadium on Sunday Night Baseball.
Despite 79% of the public being on the over as of the time of this writing, we have seen the opening total of 8 drop to the current number of 7.5, which suggests some big money has been placed on the under in tonight’s standalone game in MLB.
Gray Finally Faces Cubs
Sonny Gray will get the ball tonight, as he faces the Cubs for the first time this season. The right-hander did not pitch against Chicago earlier this summer despite the teams meeting seven times in a two-week span. Gray was excellent last year against the Cubs in his first season as a Cardinal. He had three starts against them and posted a 2.37 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 23 strikeouts in 19 innings.
After hitting a bit of a rough patch, Gray dominated the Dodgers his last time out with 7 innings of 1-run ball on just 1 hit with 1 walk and 8 strikeouts.
Shota Time For Cubs
Tonight’s Chicago starter Shota Imanaga also experienced some recent struggles, but he got back on track in his last start. The southpaw allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with no walks and 7 strikeouts against the Reds this past Tuesday.
Imanaga shut out the Cardinals for 5 innings in a 3-0 Cubs win back on June 26th, and the Redbirds have been unable to figure him out in his brief MLB career. Imanaga has faced the Cards three times over the last two years and has compiled a 2.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 18.2 innings.
My Lean
Weather permitting, I think we are in for a pitchers’ duel this evening. Gray’s ERA is still bound to come down based on his expected numbers, and every time I watch Imanaga pitch, I wonder how teams ever hit him because he’s very good at throwing off hitters’ timing.
At this point, the first five under is just a lean for me and not a bet because there is a threat of a rain delay tonight, and I don’t want my bet to get blown up due to abbreviated starts for Gray and Imanaga.
If the weather forecast becomes favorable, I will likely upgrade this to an official bet. To see all of my bets for all sports, follow me in the Action Network app with the username “esontag”. I am currently up over 35 units since starting to track my plays there late last year. You should be tracking all of your plays if you are betting, and the Action Network app provides a user-friendly way for you to do that.
Lean: Under 3.5 in the first five innings at +100 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer