The clock is ticking, and the trade deadline is nigh, and delirious baseball fans in every MLB market are burning up emotionally after disgorging fever-dream fantasy deals all day and night on the “X” platform -- and other institutions of higher learning.
I have some thoughts, some concepts, some Bird Bytes ... and I’ve also had too much caffeine so consider that a warning.
1. The Last Waltz: president of baseball operations John Mozeliak reaching the end of his lengthy term in office, this is his last chance to do something good for the future of the franchise. It is also the last chance for Moz to make the franchise worse before he sets out to hike the Torres del Paine O Trek in Patagonia.
OK, so what will it be? Since I used a Last Waltz reference, I’ll stick with the song catalogue from one of my favorites, The Band.
== For Mozeliak, will it be “When I Paint My Masterpiece?” This was written by Dylan but The Band perfected it. Here’s a synopsis via Google: “The pursuit of artistic fulfillment and the longing for a transcendent creative experience. It has themes of historical legacy, personal ambition, and the elusive nature of achieving true artistic mastery. The song suggests that creating a masterpiece is not just about the final product, but also about the journey and the desire to reach a state of artistic transcendence.”
(Translation: Mozeliak trades his three relievers on expiring contracts and gets a load of talent in return.)
== Will it be The Weight? According to music critic Rob Jones, the song“contains a unique sense of pathos, and a source of anguish that is at once compelling and binding as the very sound of human struggle itself.”
(This would describe Mo’s final three seasons on the job, but as the lead character, he now has an opportunity to find some happiness by making some good trades before his farewell.)
== Or will it be Makes No Difference?
This classic has been described this way: “The song uses imagery of weather to convey the singer's sadness, with the sun not shining and constant rain representing the emotional darkness.”
(Translation: Mozeliak messes up his final trade deadline as the leader of the baseball operation, and he is cursed by an angry, fist-shaking mob as he boards the leaving train.)
BIRD BYTES
1. On the potential (likely) trading of closer Ryan Helsley: I have three concerns. The first is (a) Mozeliak overplaying his hand; (b) Mozeliak dawdling until it’s too late to pull in the max offer; (c) the trade market for Helsley was never as verdant as the media made it out to be, and the Cardinals and their fans are let down by the return. That said: the Mets handed over a nice bundle of talent Thursday to extract right-handed reliever Tyler Rogers from the Giants. Rogers, like Helsley, can be a free agent after the season. That’s a good sign – we think – for the Cardinals.
2. Another thought about Helsley: Oli Marmol, whatever you do Wednesday, do not use Helsley against the Marlins. It would be a typical Cardinal Thang to put Helsley into a meaningless game, and have him walk off the mound in pain after being stricken by injury.
3. The Steven Matz hype: I suppose it is my destiny to spend my final years as a typist being dedicated to the goal of using my words to cut through the Happy Talk merde?
Here I go again. Look, I respect Steven Matz and I think he’s done a solid job as a Cards reliever this season. But for the love of Steve Kline, Ken Dayley and Kevin Siegrist … could we please calm down a little?
In his last 21 relief appearances through Tuesday, Matz had a 5.40 ERA and hitters have smacked him for a .302 average, .483 slug and 1.3 home runs per nine innings. I don’t see any Billy Wagner there. But I sincerely hope some team overpays for Matz. He has some added value for his ability to work more than an inning when called out of the bullpen.
4. The power move: trading lefty reliever JoJo Romero. As I’ve mentioned approximately 5,000 times over the last three weeks, he’s excelled since April 27, pitching to an 0.36 ERA in 25 and ⅓ innings. This peak-form stretch includes some true excellence in Romero’s last 10 gigs: one earned run in 10 and ⅓ innings, no walks, and strikeouts in 18 of 39 batters faced. That’s 46.7 percent!
Romero can’t become a free agent until after 2026. Mozeliak can’t hold back on this one if a sweet offer comes along. But then again, Mozeliak didn’t see the wisdom in selling high on Erick Fedde last winter, and we know how that turned out.
5. A little help for the offense? In succumbing quietly to the Marlins on Tuesday, the Cardinals were punched for their 11th shutout loss this season. That’s tied for second-most among the 30 MLB teams. The 2024 Cardinals did not have a good offense, finishing 12th in the NL with an average of 4.15 runs per game. And that team was shut out only six times in 162 games.
6. Too many droughts: this season the Cardinals have scored no more than one run in a game 27 times, which is tied for the Rockies, Royals and White Sox for the most in the majors.
7. OK, now a look at the famine that’s plagued the Cardinals as they lost 30 of 53 games since May 30. The Cards have been shut out nine times in 53 games, and no other MLB team has been blanked more than five times since then. The Birds have scored no more than a single run in 14 of the 53 games. No MLB team has been put down with such ease since May 30.
8. Really, really sad since June 30: that’s when the Cardinals began to slide out of the picture as a credible postseason contender. This stretch opened with a 1-5 trip against the Pirates and Cubs, and the Redbirds were shutout in four of their five losses while traveling.
– How does a team lose 16 of 24 games since the last day of June? Well, it starts with a starting rotation that’s been flogged for an MLB worst 6.98 ERA during the 24 games – with Cards starters being lashed for 23 home runs in 116 innings and getting smashed for a .315 average and .538 slug. The Cards had only 3 quality starts in the 24 games.
– Have your offense dry up. In their 16 losses since June 30, the Cardinals have been shutout six times and held to no more than two runs in 10 games. In their 16 losses the Cardinals batted .202 with a .296 slugging percentage.
– It’s easy to go 8-16 since June 30 when you go 2-10 on the road and score an average of 1.4 runs, homer only three times, ground into 10 double plays and bat .209 in the 10 losses.
9. Just asking for a friend: are teams still hustling in desperation to trade for Nolan Arenado? During the Cardinals ice-age phase offensively that began June 30, ‘Nado batted .161 (9 for 56), slugged .196 and had two RBIs in his 16 games over that time. The Cardinals were 2-14 in those contests. Since last homering on June 22, Arenado has a .198 average, .244 slug and has pushed home four RBIs in 86 at-bats. Per wRC+, Arenado is 83 percent below league average offensively since June 30. But I’m rooting for a trade.
10. Pedro Pages: since I’m using June 30 as the beginning of the end for the Cardinals, I have to mention that Pages has batted .136 with a 34.4 percent strikeout rate. And per wRC+ Pages is 125 percent below league average offensively since June 30. I admire his defense but if he has such a magical touch as the pitchers and managers say, then why have the Cardinals allowed an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 24 games … and yielded 5.1 runs per contest while going 23-30 since May 30?
Bonus Byte: How about the amazing JJ Wetherholt? Dude went deep again Tuesday evening with a three-run homer to lead Triple A Memphis to a 10-4 win over Norfolk. In his first 12 games, the Cardinals’ next leadoff man has swatted Triple A pitching for a .340 average, .385 on-base rate and a .787 slugging percentage. Ten of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases including five home runs. In the 12 games, Wetherholt has homered every 9.4 at-bats and stroked an extra-base hit every 4.7 at-bats. See ya soon?
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.