I’ll start by breaking down some of the latest news and information. And I will offer my own opinion in response to each item.
FIRST ISSUE: TRADE DEADLINE
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is sending signals that lead to “sell” at the July 31 trade deadline. The trigger was the team’s demolition during a humiliating weekend series sweep in Arizona.
“Clearly the weekend was not what we wanted to see,” Mozeliak told media currently covering the Cardinals in Colorado. “Now we have to understand what the future looks like. Where we are in the standings definitely affects our decision-making moving forward. Playing those three games and losing all three was not helpful. Obviously, we wanted to come out of the break and have a positive start to it. We didn’t.”
Accordingly …
“So as we reflect on what’s best for the organization, there is the longer view in terms of are there decisions that we can make that would better situate the franchise in 2026 and beyond. We have a lot of players that teams have interest in, and we have to sort through all of that. We’re being much more open-minded to where we were pre-All-Star break.”
Bernie’s comment: Hello there, reality! It’s great to see ya! It’s nice to know that Mozeliak is embracing the obvious move. And the only move that makes sense for the Cardinals is to sell their movable pieces and begin the process of putting their transition in a better spot in planning for next season and beyond.
The readers may be thinking: What’s the big deal? Isn’t this the correct approach to take? Are you complimenting him for thinking with a clear mind? Why is this news?
Another Bernie comment: Easy answer. I had a legitimate concern that Mozeliak would mishandle yet another important situation as he moves closer to the exit ramp. I didn’t rule out watching Mozeliak holding onto moveable assets to cling to the Cardinals’ longshot postseason probability. Heck, I guess he still could do that but I take some comfort in knowing he’s viewing this in the appropriate way. Progress, people!
SECOND ISSUE: THE CHAIM BLOOM ERA HAS BEGUN
First of all, the Cardinals had a strong draft that prioritized power-pitching arms. That’s an overdue and necessary shift in philosophy. The smart Randy Flores, who runs the Cards’ draft, said he enjoyed the process of working with some of the key people hired by Bloom to rebuild the Cardinals’ infirm player development. Everyone involved offered perspective on how draft picks (and prospects) should be evaluated. The goal was to find young talent that would be a match for the new direction the franchise will take when Bloom officially becomes president of baseball operations after the season.
That’s not all. Mozeliak, as promised, is seeking Bloom’s counsel as the Cardinals map a trade-deadline plan which has moving parts and variables. One emerging possibility is the idea of the Cardinals expanding their scope to solicit trade offers for some of their players who aren’t on expiring contracts. That could mean being willing to deal from their core that’s in place for next season or multiple years.
According to Post-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold, and I quote: “Mozeliak described his goal as ‘looking for the best talent and controllable talent.’ ”
In Goold’s piece Mozeliak offered additional insight.
“It gives Chaim and the next gen a little more time without the pressure of we just have to win next year,” Mozeliak said. “More freedom and flexibility.”
Bernie’s comment: I endorse this 100 percent. And I really like Mozeliak’s expressed desire to give Bloom a head start in a roster reshaping. For the last two weeks I’ve been talking about, and writing about, the need for Mozeliak to make all of his players available – not just the pitchers (Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz) who will become free agents after the season. No Cardinal should be off limits in trade discussions. There’s no need for Mozeliak to sell low on whatever offers come in for non-free agents. But the purpose is an exploration to see if a trade partner is willing to buy high enough (in trade price) to land a coveted Cardinal.
THIRD ISSUE: THE NO-TRADE CLAUSES
Mozeliak told reporters he’ll approach the three relevant veteran Cardinals who have no-trade protection – starting pitcher Sonny Gray, first baseman Willson Contreras, and third baseman Nolan Arenado. He wants to check their attitudes about possibly being traded. Yes? NO WAY? Or maybe?
Bernie’s comments: Mozeliak is doing the right thing. How can you not approach these men to revisit the subject of being traded? Two reasons: (1) it’s a sign of respect, and (2) maybe you’ll get a YES answer or two. But it comes down to the team that expresses interest.
The team’s status is important. Are they a real contender this summer and in 2026 – or just a wannabe? The team’s market is a crucial factor. Some dudes want to play for a team on the coast. Some may want to go back home, where they were born and raised and have family and friends. Some may want to live in the South. Some want a big market. Others want a smaller market. Some are interested in one thing only: will the move help me win a World Series ring?
Maybe some player has a secret dream to play for a transient franchise that’s temporarily based in Sacramento. (Uh, probably not.)
But the only way to find out what appeals to Contreras, Gray and Arenado is to ask them. And that’s not the end of it, either.
The Cardinals and the would-be trade partner must agree on a deal, and that can get complicated … if, say, chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. doesn’t want to defray the cost of the guaranteed contract that’s going the other way.
This especially applies to Arenado, who is under contract through 2027. And Contreras, who is signed through 2027. Gray has one season (2026) remaining on his three-year contract. With one year left on his contract (and possibly his career), does Sonny want to chase a World Series ring? Who knows? That’s why it’s good to approach them to get answers to these vital questions. I’m just waiting to see how it plays out; and from what I can tell by scrolling the interweb, approximately 43 major-league teams are VERY interested in Arenado. Wait, there are only 30 teams! That’s what I thought, too. But I learn a lot on the interweb.
FOURTH ISSUE: CARDS ARE ‘UNDECIDED’ ON TRADING HELSLEY
This from my friend Bob Nightengale, the longtime baseball columnist from USA Today:
“The St. Louis Cardinals remain undecided whether they will trade closer Ryan Helsley at the deadline, but since they don’t plan to tender him a qualifying offer, they realize they may have no choice but to move him with at least five contenders showing interest.”
I love this for two reasons: the ‘undecided’ part, and the info about the Cardinals having no plans to make Helsley a qualifying offer after the season. It’s best to move on, and Chaim Bloom isn’t the qualifying-offer type of baseball exec. Helsley has value, and that’s where the Cardinals can strengthen the roster and their top-prospects list by dealing Helsley before the deadline.
OK, so why are the Cardinals reportedly “undecided” about trading Helsley? Simple answer: to make potential trade parties anxious, and if a couple of teams REALLY want Helsley before the deadline – well, mister, the Cardinals aren’t sure they want to move Helsley, so you best rethink this and sweeten up that offer for Helsley and motivate us to trade him to you.
The more teams that come calling for Helsley, the better it is for inflating his trade value. And it’s even better if the front office plays the “We’re Not Sure If We’ll Trade Him” card to drive up the price of the trade exchange on the closer.
At last check, five teams are being bandied about as the most aggressive chasers of a trade for Helsley: Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Tigers, Mets.
If Mozeliak chickens out and doesn’t move Helsley, then it’s just another colossal failure before his term in office expires.
FIFTH ISSUE: MICHAEL MCGREEVY?
After a brilliant start Monday night to set the pace for a 6-2 win at Colorado, we’ll wait and see what comes next. Will he stay in the St. Louis rotation, or be ordered by John Mozeliak to go back to Triple A Memphis?
There are strong feelings on this in the Cardinals clubhouse. Manager Oli Marmol doesn’t even try to conceal his lobbying efforts with Mozeliak to keep McGreevy with the big club for the remainder of the regular season.
And Willson Contreras said this to the Post-Dispatch: “I think he's ready to stay here. He doesn't need to go back to Triple-A. That's my take. And I'm going to say it. He's ready.”
Bernie’s comments: I have many. But of course McGreevy should stay with the Cardinals. Because time is short for me today – sorry – I’m going to quote from the video that was posted earlier Tuesday on STL Sports Central.
+ McGreevy has nothing to prove at Triple A, and the Cardinals’ rotation is basically one of those rural fireworks stands that erupt in loud noises, flames and smoke. For the entire season St. Louis ranks 25th among the 30 teams in starting pitching ERA. Since the first of June, and before McGreevy’s start at Colorado, night, STL’s 5.85 starting pitching ERA was the worst in the majors. And it still is.
+ So once again we ask: with the Cards rotation falling apart since late May, why would Mozeliak even consider having pitch for the Memphis Redbirds instead of the St. Louis Cardinals?
+ Doesn’t McGreevy epitomize what this so-called “Runway Season” is supposed to be all about? The Cardinals drafted McGreevy with the 18th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. And he’s developed within the system by pitching 530 innings in the minors.
+ And beginning with his major-league debut on July 31 of the 2024 season, McGreevy has a 2.98 ERA in 51 and ⅓ MLB innings. He’s ready. And he’s good. But at least until now, Mozeliak has blocked his permanent appointment to the St. Louis rotation – much to Oli Marmol’s disappointment.
+ It’s been a ludicrous situation. Before Monday night’s start, Mozeliak stubbornly stood with his decision to stay with Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde and deploy McGreevy as a spot starter who is on call in Memphis.
+ Of course this makes no sense. Not only has Mozeliak undermined his own “runway season” marketing pitch by keeping McGreevy on lockdown in Memphis, the president of baseball ops has also damaged his team’s chances of winning enough games to make the 2025 postseason.
+ Mikolas and Fedde have combined for 38 starts this season, collectively pitching to a gruesome 5.01 ERA. And when Fedde or Mikolas starts a game this season, the Cardinals have won only 14 times in 38 games. That’s a .368 winning percentage.
+ McGreevy has a 3.59 ERA in his seven MLB starts, and his fielding independent ERA in those assignments is a sharp 3.17.
+ I don’t care if McGreevy’s major-league work is of the “small sample” variety. All I know is this: he’s earned the privilege of having a spot in a rotation that absolutely stinks. In his parts of two seasons with the Cardinals, McGreevy has an overall 2.98 ERA.
+ When McGreevy started a game over the last two seasons, the Cardinals went 6-1. When he’s appeared in any game, they are 8-1. Now, contrast that to the team’s 14-24 record this season when Mikolas or Fedde starts. Or the team’s 33-47 record (.412) over the last two seasons when Fedde-Mikolas made a start.
+ McGreevy posted an above average game score in five of his seven big-league starts for the Cards. He’s pitched very well in two winning starts at Coors Field – the first coming last season – and that ballpark is a horror for pitching. Before McGreevy went to work on Monday night, MLB pitchers had a 5.15 ERA at Coors Field this season – and starting pitchers are even worse with a 5.45 ERA.
+ McGreevy allowed two earned runs in his impressive seven-inning start Monday. And here’s a stat that I like: before McGreevy took the mound at Coors Field, only five visiting-team starters had pitched at least 7 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs to the Rockies in that hitter-haven ballpark this season. That short list of starters includes Chris Sale, Max Fried, Joe Ryan and Nick Lodolo. And now McGreevy is the sixth starter to do it.
+ And McGreevy hasn’t been set up for easy success, either. As noted, two of his seven career starts have been at Coors Field. He’s made one start (apiece) against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers in 2024, at San Francisco in 2024, and this year he’s faced the Dodgers, Cubs and White Sox. His only career loss was to the Dodgers.
+ Finally, my favorite stat of the day: in four starts and 22 and ⅔ innings this season, McGreevy has a 0.4 Wins Above Replacement based on the FanGraphs version of WAR. Mikolas and Fedde – in 38 starts and 195 and ⅔ innings – have the same 0.4 WAR value as McGreevy has accrued on only four starts and 22 and ⅔ innings.
+ And Mozeliak has, at least up to now, chosen to stick with Mikolas and Fedde – two proven failures – instead of giving a young, drafted-developed “runway” starter an opportunity. Worst of all? The Cardinals have wasted a combined $25 million in salary on Fedde-Mikolas this season. McGreevy’s salary for 2025 is $300,000. Crazy.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.