Welcome. Happy All-Star Game Day to you on this pleasant Tuesday.
In my little nook here at STL Sports Central, I’ve declared it “Runway Day” as well. At least for Cardinals fans. But with the Cards not returning to action until Friday, this is the perfect opportunity to review all things Cardinals based on their first 97 games. The All-Star break is a great time to do a checkup.
With the ‘25 Cardinals, nothing is as important as the “Runway” season and the discoveries the Redbirds may have made so far in their stated goal of giving extensive opportunities to younger players.
Before, I must get something out of the way. I continue to see references to Brendan Donovan as a “runway” guy – and it’s ludicrous.
Donovan is 28 years old. He was promoted to the big club early in the 2022 season. He’s played 463 regular-season MLB games, and made 1,879 big-league plate appearances. Since the start of 2002, Donovan ranks 82nd on a list of 270 major-league players that have at least 1,000 plate appearances over that time.
Donovan won the Gold Glove award as the best utility-player defender in the National League as a rookie in 2022. NOT A RUNWAY GUY. Donovan has already established himself as a Cardinal fixture with a prominent role going forward. And congrats to him for being a National League All-Star in tonight’s showcase. (Update: Donovan had two singles in three at-bats for the NL side.)
Against my better judgment, I’ll put Lars Nootbaar in the “runway” category even though he’s 27 and has been with the Cards since 2021, when he played 58 games at age 23. But there is a runway aspect to Noot’s 2025, and I’ll explain later.
OK, with that said – let’s inspect the runway, beginning with the position players …
MASYN WINN
He’s 23 and in his second full season with the Cardinals. Had a good rookie season in 2024 … he received a prestigious honor, given the Fielding Bible Award as the best defensive shortstop in the majors.
Winn’s heavy playing time is about the same as his pace through 97 games in 2024, but there have been some differences: this season he’s been ineffective offensively against left-handed hitters, and his overall performance at the plate is five percent below league average … His defense remains outstanding but his offense is trending downward; Winn has a .223 average, a poor .263 OBP and a largely ineffectual .315 slugging percentage in his last 32 games. His FanGraphs WAR is 2.5 this season, which is slightly above his 2.3 fWAR through the club’s first 97 games last year.
Winn’s Runway Report: Stalled a bit, and I’ll be curious to see which way Winn goes over the final 65 games. Playing for Double A Springfield and then Triple A Memphis, the top St. Louis prospect JJ Wetherspoon has started more games at shortstop (38) than second base (24) this season.
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ALEC BURLESON
The left-handed contact specialist is 26, and even though this is his fourth season as a Cardinal, he didn’t really have an expanded role until 2024.
Burly had 350 plate appearances through STL’s first 97 games last season. This season, he’s at 316 PA through 97 games, but there are reasons for that: (1) a slow start, and (2) the Cards’ dense population of left-handed hitters. But after becoming more selective at the plate in late April, Burleson has a .309 average, .520 slug and an .871 OPS in his last 63 games, and manager Oli Marmol began writing him into the lineup on most days – even against lefty starting pitchers.
Packed into AB’s totals the last 63 games are 14 doubles, 11 homers and a .327 batting average and .919 OPS with runners in scoring position. Getting more at-bats isn’t a problem now, and the big fella has improved defensively in the corner outfield and at first base. With 1.3 Wins Above Replacement, Burleson already has topped his entire-season fWAR of 1.2 in 2024.
Burly’s Runway Report: taking off and climbing in altitude.
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IVAN HERRERA
The imposing right-handed hitter is 25 and now has exactly 500 career plate appearances for the Cardinals. Herrera really didn’t become a factor until last season, and since the start of 2024 he’s hit .309 with a .381 OBP and .469 slug in 434 plate appearances.
The Cardinals did the smart thing by moving Herrera from catcher to designated hitter in May; the move upgraded their defense behind the plate and boosted an offense that lacked a big-gun hitter. Among right-handed NL hitters that have at least 170 plate appearances this season, Herrera ranks third in OPS (.966), third in wOBA (.389), and third in adjusted runs created with an wRC+ that’s 61 percent better than the league average. And among MLB hitters that have no more than 170 plate appearances this season, Herrera leads them with 1.6 fWAR.
Herrera isn’t in the lineup to steal bases but otherwise has it all: plate discipline, power, the ability to monster-mash both left-handed pitchers and righties. And he cashes in RBIs at money time, batting .419 with a 1.147 OPS with runners in scoring position. He’s slugging .800 in Late and Close situations. I could go on and on.
The problem, of course, is staying healthy. Herrera has been on the IL twice this season, missing 53 total days with knee inflammation and then a strained hamstring. That’s limited him to just 175 plate appearances. Herrera has returned, and hopefully he’ll stay in the lineup. Herrera automatically makes the Cardinals more dangerous - especially against left-handed pitchers who torment them.
Herrera’s Runway Report: The second round of repairs were completed in the garage … and now it’s off and and up into the wild blue yonder. The other variable is his future position -- which is why the Cardinals are contemplating a switch to left field. The timetable on that is unclear.
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NOLAN GORMAN
This left-handed power bat, age 25, is in fourth MLB season with the Cardinals, and it’s still all about plate approach and plate discipline.
After an intentionally deliberate start to the 2025 season – as he implemented a more selective eye for pitches – Gorman began to power up in late May. In his last 37 games Gorman has locked in for a .509 slugging percentage and .845 OPS. The system check is encouraging: his strikeout rate is down seven percent, his swing-miss rate has decreased, his walk rate is up – and so is his hard-hit rate.
Gorman’s potential is obvious, he’s still young, and the Cardinals’ patience in him is justified. Even with his whiffing issues along the way, Gorman still has put up a .439 career slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers – and has taken them deep once every 17 at-bats. Since May 26, Gorman ranks second to Burleson among regular Cardinals with an adjusted runs created (wRC+) rate that’s 37 percent above league average offensively. Gorman has earned steady playing time.
All of that said, through the team’s first 97 games Gorman has 122 fewer plate appearances than he did at this time in 2024. So in terms of the runway, his opportunity hasn’t been as full as expected. (Reason: Nolan Arenado wasn't traded, and that prevented Gorman from playing 3B, his natural spot.) Gorman had to prove something before Marmol put him in the lineup with greater frequency.
And perhaps that’s a runway lesson: nothing is guaranteed; progress must be shown to warrant sustained playing time. And since June 10 only four Cardinals have had more plate appearances than Gorman, and over that time he leads the Cardinals in home runs and walks (nice combination!) and is second in RBIs. Since June 1, the only Cardinals who have a higher Win Probability Added rating than Gorman are Herrera and Burleson.
Gorman’s Runway Report: the stormy weather is calming, and the runway isn’t as crowded, and there should be smoother flying ahead. But that doesn’t mean it will happen. With Herrera back in the lineup as the primary DH, coming up with a sufficient number of at-bats for Gorman will be a challenge for manager Oli Marmol.
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JORDAN WALKER
Chosen 21st overall out of high school in the 2020 MLB Draft, Walker soared from the Double A level and directly to the majors after only 900 minor-league plate appearances. Offensively Walker experienced turbulence but had a good rookie season in 2023. Walker’s confused attempts to play defense was more about the Cardinals’ irresponsible and hopelessly incompetent decision to rush him to the majors without giving him proper time to learn how to play right field after switching from third base.
Walker recently turned 23, so there’s time, but since the last of the 2024 campaign he has a .206 batting average, a .260 OBP, and a weak .329 slug. Walker’s chasing of low-and-away pitches for a plethora of strikeouts remains a significant flaw.
Through 97 games last season Walker had amassed only 67 plate appearances; he was sent to Triple A Memphis for a long stay. This season Walker has been given 191 plate appearances and a firm commitment to playing time. Walker was making good progress during a late-May hot streak but that ended when he went on the IL with wrist inflammation. And more recently he was placed on the IL after recovering from appendicitis.
The results are depressing; Walker is experiencing career lows in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, strikeout rate and OPS. And his adjusted OPS is 41 percent below league average offensively. By now, Walker should be improving and producing. But instead, he just can't get on track, is getting worse at the plate, has relapsed defensively, and it’s all difficult to watch. I don’t know how much playing time Walker will receive when he returns from his ailment – and only the Cardinals know if they’re running out of patience.
WALKER’S RUNWAY REPORT: Air traffic control can’t really see what’s going on, and the flight tower can’t clear him for takeoff. He may need to be towed back to Memphis. Seriously, other hitters have moved ahead of Walker to earn more playing time for St. Louis. And other than an injury or two that would lead to more at-bats for Walker, I don't see how he'll be a playing-time priority unless the Cardinals fall out of playoff contention.
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PEDRO PAGES
The hard-shell catcher, age 26, has emerged as the starter because of his scouting, preparation, pitch-calling and chemistry with the team’s pitchers. The St. Louis hurlers have confidence in Pages and that’s reflected in their 3.88 ERA when pitching to him. But Pages isn’t very good at blocking pitches.
Pages’ job security seems safe as long as Marmol has the final say, and that benefits the pitchers – and diminishes the team’s offense. I say that because Pages is 35 percent below league average offensively this season. And among 24 MLB big-league catchers that have at least 200 plate appearances, he ranks no better than 21st in any offensive category and is last in on-base percentage and next to last in OPS.
Pages is batting .180 with a .232 OBP and .289 slug on his last 45 games, and the strikeouts are piling up. Bulletin: this won’t get better. But Pages has 142 more plate appearances this season than he did last year through the first 97 games.
I do believe we will see more of the bargain-price -- but valuable -- free-agent find Yohel Pozo behind the dish … and why not? He’s solid enough defensively and has provided a .312 average, .505 slug and an overall offensive performance that’s 31 percent above league average. There were signs of increased playing time for Pozo before the break, and he could become a more prominent presence over the final two-plus months.
Pages Runway Report: Word from the mechanics down below who have been inspecting the problem – might have to think about switching airplanes … but they’ll keep working on it. Another way to put it: Jimmy Crooks is the catching prospect at Triple A Memphis, and he could be an option for the Cardinals later this season. But it’s best to keep Herrera away from catching for obvious reasons, and the Cardinals have decided to do that. I understand Pages' value for his leadership with the pitching staff. But if the offense stinks going forward, more attention must be paid to getting more at-bats for a more capable hitter (Pozo.) I have mixed feelings about all of this. And Crooks isn't ready for the majors just yet.
LARS NOOTBAAR
As I said earlier in the column, the left-handed hitting outfielder isn’t a “give him runway” player in the traditional sense. He’s played a lot of games for the Cardinals – when he can – but has been put out of commission too many times because of injuries. So in this case, the runway is more like a highway – and Nootbaar keeps crashing. Since the start of the 2023 season, Nootbaar has been on the IL five times and missed 106 days during the season. That total of days missed will grow depending on how quickly he can heal up from a ribcage strain.
Nootbaar’s Runway Report: Can the Cardinals keep Noot on the road? Or is he just one of those dudes who can’t stay in the lineup? Do they trade him while he still has value? At the time Nootbaar went back on the IL last weekend, he was dragging with a .207 average and a .643 OPS with an inflating strikeout rate over his last 58 games. Nootbaar is a talented player with a likable personality. But he is also an enigma.
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VICTOR SCOTT II
You know the story by now. The Cardinals turned to him to play center field early last season because they ran out of healthy outfielders. And Scott wasn’t ready for the show. His offense was 60 percent below the league average. And though he had the speed to cover acres of the outfield, Vic would get lost by taking inaccurate routes to the ball.
A season later, Scott is still working on his offensive game but is a top-three (MLB) defender in center field with 11 outs above average. Offensively, it’s still a challenge for Scott. He did a very nice job early on this season; back on May 12 Scott a .288 average and .755 OPS.
But then the evil pitchers began spinning pitches to make them move ... and make his head spin. The result: over his last 52 games before the All-Star break, Scott batted .192 with a .545 OPS and 29.5% strikeout rate. It’s a shame that he can’t get on base more often because he’s one of the most effective base thieves in the majors, stealing 24 in 26 attempts for a superb success rate of 92.3%.
Scott’s Runway Report: He can fly on defense. He can fly when he reaches base. But his offense is 19 percent below league average, and that requires more adjustments, and attention to detail. This is a smart guy with a tremendous work ethic . And who doesn’t like Victor Scott? There's a question about his long-term future in center field, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The runway season has been largely positive or him so far, because he’s obviously displayed value to the Cardinals – his speed and defense are the primary sources of his 1.7 fWAR. And Scott’s 1.7 fWAR matches that of Pittsburgh’s All-Star center fielder Oneil Cruz and is higher than other center fielders including Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins, Michael Harris II and Joe Addell.
THOMAS SAGGESE
I'll make this quick: He’s gotten some runway this season with 90 plate appearances for the Cardinals. The numbers aren’t great – .233 average, .581 OPS – but Saggese is in the early stages of his big-league education, and he’s had some fine moments in recent games. That doesn't mean he should play more than other infielders on the team. Not yet. But he could be a valuable utility man in the near future.
Saggese’s Runway Report: he has talent but needs more of an opportunity, but we may not see a more extensive runway until later this season or in 2026. For Saggese to emerge as a starting infielder, the Cardinals would have to create some room by offloading other infielders. Also, it would make sense to have Saggese learn to play the outfield. Jose Fermin could be a factor in the roster shaping over the final 65 games. Utility man Fermin looks like a much better hitter in 2025.
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OK, let’s take a look at the pitchers …
MATTHEW LIBERATORE
The talented/tall lefty is definitely getting the full runway opportunity this season, and the results have been mixed.
In his first 10 starts Libby had a 2.73 ERA, 2.53 fielding independent ERA, a 21.5 percent strikeout rate, a 3.4% walk rate and allowed three homers in 59 innings. All in all, a strong debut as a member of the Cardinals starting rotation.
However: in his last eight starts Liberatore has a 6.15 ERA, 4.91 FIP, a declining strikeout rate (15.6%), an elevated walk rate (7.6%) and has yielded seven home runs in 41 innings. This is concerning ... but really isn't surprising. This is his first legit chance to be a big-league starter, and some ups and downs are understandable.
Libby’s Runway Report: Looking good on the runway, but there’s potential turbulence because of a heavier workload that comes with starting. This isn’t any reason for alarm. Liberatore must make adjustments and build stamina. Even with his recent difficulties, Libby’s 1.8 fWAR is the fourth-best in the majors among innings-qualified starters age 25 or younger. The three starters above him are Paul Skenes, Bryan Woo and Spencer Schellenbach. But Liberatore's test for remainder of 2025 is showing that his "stuff" will hold up as the innings pile up. He's entering new territory. Including his time spent at both Triple A and the majors, Liberatore worked 124 and 2/3 innings in 2021, 150 innings in 2022, 126 and 1/3 innings in 2023, and 86 innings last season. He's at 100 innings right now.
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ANDRE PALLANTE
The ground-ball machine, age 26, has been a continuous resident of the St. Louis starting rotation since May 29 of last season. This grinding right-hander did better in 2024 than he has so far in 2025, but I think fluctuations are inevitable because Pallante can’t dismiss many hitters through strikeouts.
The ball is in play a lot, and that leaves him vulnerable. In his 38 starts since last May 29, Pallante has a 3.99 ERA and the highest ground-ball rate (62.2%) by an innings qualified big-league starters. Pallante’s FIP over that time is a respectable 4.09. He could be expendable next season, because the Cardinals are putting more of a priority on finding power pitchers, but it's premature to write him off.
Pallante’s Runway Report: Not a sleek and dynamic machine, and limited in certain ways, and he stays on the ground … but in his case, being grounded – by getting so many ground balls – is actually a good thing for a starter who is tied for the lowest strikeout rate (17.2%) in the majors since last May 29. That strikeout rate ties Pallante with Erick Fedde. Which may explain why the Cardinals just selected a collection of hard-throwing, high-velocity, power-armed throwers in the 2025 MLB Draft. The accumulation of innings will likely be a factor in Pallante's performance over the final two-plus months. Will he wear down?
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MICHAEL MCGREEVY
Runway Report: McGreevy can’t gain clearance for takeoff because some dude who looks like John Mozeliak is out there blocking him ... even though the "runway" concept for 2025 was originated by Mozeliak himself. This front office stopped making sense a long time ago.
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THE RELIEVERS
I’m going to put them in two groups without burying you in more stats. This isn’t about age; it’s all about dudes getting an opportunity and making a positive impression ... or not.
Looking good on the runway: Kyle Leahy, Riley O’Brien, Matt Svanson, Gordon Graceffo, Andre Granillo. And McGreevy also impressed in his one appearance as a reliever this season. The Cardinals have added quality depth to heir bullpen crew and have more options to available. This is a positive.
Diverted from the runway: Chris Roycroft, Ryan Fernandez, and Roddery Munoz.
I’m out of words. This little project took all afternoon to put together, so you’ll have to pardon my typos.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.