Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (49-44) vs Washington Nationals (38-54)
Time: 6:45pm CT Thursday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Miles Mikolas (4-6, 5.26 ERA) vs Michael Soroka (3-6, 5.40 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cardinals -144, Nationals +119
Total: 9 (over -103, under -118)
Cards, Nats To Decide Series
The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals meet in the rubber game of their three-game series tonight at Busch Stadium.
The Redbirds haven’t been able to put all facets of their game together over the last couple weeks. In their last eight games, the Cards have scored more than 4 runs just once and they’ve allowed fewer than 5 runs just twice.
Can Mikolas Stabilize?
It has been rough times for tonight’s starter Miles Mikolas over his last several outings. Going back to May 28th, he has pitched 36 innings covering seven starts. Mikolas has been pounded for 31 earned runs and 53 hits during that stretch for a 7.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.
Mikolas did toss 5.1 innings of 1-run ball in a win at Washington on May 11th, and for his career against the Nats, he has a 3.26 ERA across 11 games (10 starts).
Soroka Due For Good Luck
Michael Soroka gets the start for the Nationals. The right-hander is coming off an awful start against the Red Sox where he got roughed up for 7 runs and 9 hits in just 4 innings of work that brought his season ERA up over 5.
However with a WHIP of just 1.14, Soroka is definitely a candidate for positive regression with his ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) for the season sits at an impressive 3.19, so he is due for some breaks to go his way.
My Lean
At this point, Cardinals Nation is holding its collective breath anytime Miles Mikolas or Erick Fedde steps on the mound. Regression has come hard for those two pitchers, and even though the Nationals have a poor record, I think they have enough offensive firepower to do some damage against Mikolas.
I made the case above for Soroka to have a good outing, and he doesn’t strike me as the type of pitcher that is going to get clobbered two starts in a row.
My lean for this game is to take the Nationals on the moneyline in the first five innings, as I don’t want anything to do with that Washington bullpen that ranks dead last in baseball with a 5.73 ERA.
Lean: Nationals on the moneyline in the first five innings at -105 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer