The Cardinals had a day off Thursday, and another on Monday, and so I don’t want to hear another peep about the demanding schedule, the fatigue, the banged-up players, blah blah blah.
Yes, the Cardinals having to play six doubleheaders already this season because of rainy-day interruptions was certainly unusual. And not easy.
See? I am not a heartless man. But all 30 MLB teams have a difficult schedule that includes long stretches of games with only one day off. This isn’t exclusive to the Cardinals. By nature, the 162-game schedule wears all teams out at times. You just have to deal with it.
So, the rested Cardinals are closing in on the All-Star break – and an oasis of rest. But there are six important games before the boys can take snoozes, sack out on the couch, play some golf, get reacquainted with family, or maybe sip tropical drinks at an island resort. But all of those good things can wait a few days.
First: three games against the Nationals, then three more with the Braves. The last call for baseball before the break begins Tuesday night for the Cardinals.
After an utterly disastrous 1-5 collapse on the road at Pittsburgh and Wrigley Field, the Cardinals have come to find their missing offense and regenerate a starting rotation that looked like the bloodied loser in a UCF fight.
The gory details:
Over their last 11 games (4-7 record) the Cardinals batted .214, had a sad .616 OPS, and were shut out five times. They scored 32 runs in the 11 games, but 21 of those biscuits were plated in STL’s three-game sweep at Cleveland. In the eight other games during this rotten stretch, the Cardinals scored 11 runs, total, while going 1-7 against the Cubs-Pirates. And eight of those 11 runs were produced in Saturday’s 8-6 comeback triumph at Wrigley Field.
In the eight games against the Cubs and Pirates, St. Louis hitters batted .179, had a starvation slugging percentage of .268, and batted .151 with runners in scoring position.
In those eight games against the Cubs-Pirates, Redbird starting pitchers were vaporized for 33 earned runs in 39 and ⅓ innings for a grotesque 7.55 ERA. The Chicago and Pittsburgh hitters mugged STL starting pitchers for a .292 average, .565 slugging percentage, 12 home runs and eight doubles. The STL starters faced 179 batters in the eight games and managed only 21 strikeouts for a horrendously low punch-out rate of 11.7 percent. Oh, and with runners in scoring position the Cubs-Pirates lacerated Cards starting pitchers for a .343 batting average and .900 OPS.
Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas combined for four starts against the Cubs and Pirates during this eight-game whacking. In the four starts, Mikolas and Fedde “teamed” up for 16 innings – and were annihilated for 25 earned runs and 10 homers. That’s a 14.06 ERA. And the home-run rate against Fedde-Mikolas? 5.6 homers per 9 innings. Other than that, Fedde and Mikolas were Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.
I plead guilty to dismissing the Cleveland series, which isn’t fair. And while the Cardinals had an overall 4-5 record in their excursion to Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Chicago – and believe it or not, teams have losing road trips – the frustration is more about two things: (1) the failure to take advantage of that sweep over the Guardians by giving it right back in that terrible sweep by the Pirates, and (2) getting utterly humiliated by the Cubs in their two losses at Wrigley Field.
The Cardinals weren’t competitive in losing those two games by a combined 22-3 score, and the visiting team scored only one run against actual big-league pitching. The Cardinals got two of their three runs on the 4th of July when the Cubs used reserve infielder Jon Berti to pitch the 9th.
On top of that, the Cardinals won their first two games against the Cubs in the four-game series at Busch Stadium that began June 23. Since coming through with those two uplifting wins, the Redbirds got drop-kicked out of the way by the Cubs by losing four of the next five tests to their superior rivals. And in the four defeats, the Cardinals were outscored by 20 runs.
The sting was severe. The way that road trip fell apart after the happy weekend in Cleveland was a lot of pain to absorb. I don’t blame anyone for feeling disgusted.
A 4-5 road trip is no disgrace; the problem was how the Cardinals lost those five games. And that was beyond mere disappointment. The nature of those five losses was disgraceful.
There’s a lot of cleanup to do here.
A lot of repairs must be made.
If they can be made.
The only way for the Cardinals to recover from the 1-5 implosion at the end of their road trip is to … recover.
Rise up and win 4 of 6 from the Nationals (37-53) and Braves (39-50) and go into the annual All-Star siesta with a fresh mind and no hangover from the shock-and-awe events at PNC Park and Wrigley.
The Cardinals can’t muck it up and go into the break on another downbeat note. They can’t flop against the Nationals or Braves. These are two beatable teams.
But then again, what are the Cardinals?
For sure, it’s a positive to see the Redbirds only 1 and ½ games out of the race for the No. 3 wild-card ticket.
That said, let’s make this clear: the momentum the Cardinals had through their exhilarating 18-5 run in May has gradually stalled.
After winning two of three games at Baltimore in a series that concluded May 28, the second-place Cardinals were 32-24, trailed the first place Cubs by 3 games, and were 3 and ½ ahead of third-place Milwaukee. The team was in good shape in the wild-card jockeying.
Except for the wild-card standings – which still offer some hope for the Cardinals – a lot has changed. The Redbirds are now in third place in the NL Central – 6 and ½ games behind the Cubs and 3 and ½ in arrears to the Brewers.
For your consideration:
1) Starting with the three-game series at Texas that began May 30, the Cardinals have a 16-19 record for a .457 winning percentage that ranks 12th among the 15 NL teams over that time. The only NL units that have been worse than St. Louis since May 30 are the Braves, Rockies and Nationals.
2) Beginning with the visit to Texas, the Cardinals have played 11 series and gone 4-6-1 in them. As of Tuesday afternoon, FanGraphs gave the Cards a 4.9 percent crack at winning the division and a 31% probability of making the postseason.
The postseason is attainable, but the fellas have to pick up the pace. And there’s this: they must pitch a helluva lot better and hit a helluva lot better than what we’ve seen over the past five weeks or so.
3) Since May 30, The Cardinals rank 13th among the NL 15 clubs in overall ERA at 4.73. That includes the No. 13 ranking in starting-pitching ERA at 5.12. The bullpen has been slightly below average, but nothing drastic.
4) Since May 30, the St. Louis offense ranks 14th among the 15 NL teams in batting average (.234), 13th in on-base percentage (.303), 11th in slugging (.374) and 12th in OPS (.677.) They’re 10th among the 15-team NL pack in runs per game.
5) Remember when the Cardinals were right near the top of the NL leaderboard in doubles over the first two months? Slashing and smashing doubles was a big component of their offense. But since May 30, the Cardinals rank 11th in the NL in doubles.
6) Since May 30, the Cardinals have a .215 batting average, .288 on-base percentage and .330 slug vs. left-handed pitchers. Per wRC+, Cards hitters are 24 percent below league average against lefties over that time.
7) Since May 30, left-handed starting pitchers have pretty much handled the Cardinals with ease. There were a few exceptions, of course. But in their nine combined starts against St. Louis over this time, Matthew Boyd, Andrew Abbott, Shota Imanaga, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Cameron, Andrew Heaney, Eric Lauer and Patrick Corbin allowed only five earned runs in 51 innings for an 0.88 ERA. Overall, lefty starters have a 3.13 earned-run average against the Redbirds since May 30.
8) During their current 16-19 downturn, the Cardinals scored two runs 15 times, which amounts to just under 44 percent of their games. They scored three or fewer runs 17 times. They were shut out seven times, and scored exactly one run three times. Obvious takeaway: the offense is malfunctioning too many times.
9) The Cardinals obviously miss the powerful, all-around bat of the injured Ivan Herrera (hamstring), who last played on June 19. That said, all teams have had to deal with injury-related absences of high-impact performers. That’s just baseball. In the 17 games since Herrera went on the IL, the Cardinals have been held to no more than one run in a game seven times. And during Herrera’s down time, the Cards have a dreadful batting average (.184) and OPS (.518) against lefties.
10) Now that I’ve noted the repercussions of not having Herrera in the lineup, I must point out something here: there is no excuse for the below-average (or flat-out terrible) hitting performances turned in by eight St. Louis hitters since May 30.
The best way to do this is use wRC+, and I’ll list them based on how far below league average each hitter has been over the last 35 games:
Nolan Arenado, minus 12 percent.
Brendan Donovan, minus 14%
Pedro Pages, minus 33%
Victor Scott II, minus 33%
Lars Nootbaar, minus 38%
Masyn Winn, minus 39%
Jordan Walker, minus 93%
Thomas Saggese, minus 114%.
In fairness, the sample sizes for Walker and Saggese are basically a little more than grains of sand. But I wanted to present the full picture, no matter how many at-bats these players have had individually.
Also in fairness, I feel compelled to point out that four of their hitters have performed well above average since May 30.
Once again, using wRC+, here ya go: Willson Contreras (+50%), Nolan Gorman (+35%), Alec Burleson (+33), and Yohel Pozo (+28%)
11) Another problem is the leadoff spot. Over their last 35 games since May 30, the Cardinals are 39 percent below league average offensively at the lead off spot. All but a few plate appearances at leadoff were taken by Brendan Donovan (83 PA), Lars Nootbaar (59) or Masyn Winn (15.) But the cast of leadoff men collectively have batted .196 with a .280 on-base percentage and a .279 slug since May 30. How can an offense ignite when the guys at the top of the order aren’t generating enough run-scoring opportunities?
All of the items I’ve mentioned above explain why the Cardinals have a 16-19 record since May 30.
The rotation was a team strength when Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde were benefiting from extremely fortunate batted-ball luck, but that’s exploded on them over the last five, six weeks. What’s the solution? The Cardinals can promote Michael McGreevy from Memphis, or they can try to put Steven Matz in the rotation.
Or, the manager Oli Marmol could go with more openers – bullpen games – to work around the massive liabilities (Fedde, Mikolas) at the back of the rotation.
But none of this will happen if baseball operations John Mozeliak – increasingly detached from reality in his final season – refuses to rid this team of Mikolas and Fedde. And Marmol will be reluctant to go with the opener format on occasion if the pitchers complain about the idea.
As for the offense: if your lineup is in a free fall and can’t hit lefties, then what are you supposed to do? There are no quick fixes here; the hitters who are capable of delivering good performances have to do just that. Or this offense will continue to stall. It will continue to be “All or Nothing” from game to game.
At five games over .500 (48-43) the Cardinals are hardly buried. But if these recent trends continue to pull them down – and this incompetent front office has no solutions or a coherent commitment to anything – well, that’s how it goes.
Without intervention or intelligence, the Cardinals will probably finish exactly where many believed they would finish in 2025. Hint: it won’t be in the postseason.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.