In an attempt to describe the Cardinals’ 2025 season through the first 85 games, I’ll go with a song title. I’ll give you the option of choosing the one you like best. And, yeah, some of ‘em are cheesy.
– No Retreat, No Surrender, Bruce Springsteen.
– There Is A Way, Mos Def.
– I Ain’t Going Peacefully, Hank Williams Jr.
– Alive, Pearl Jam.
– I Won’t Back Down, Tom Petty.
– Never Forget, Argo aka Victor Scott II
– Stronger, Kelly Clarkson.
– The Climb, Miley Cyrus.
– Don’t Stop Believin’, Journey
The Cardinals have had several chances to droop and drag and fade away. But whenever the storms hit, the Cards clear the skies, perk up, and start winning again.
I talked about this in my Monday video, but I have a bad habit of assuming the worst when the Cardinal take a detour from success and mess up for awhile, looking like a palooka of a team that shouldn’t be taken seriously as a postseason contender.
Yeah, and that’s also true of a lot of good teams … even very good or elite teams. But because the Cardinals came into the season as a huge blob of uncertainty – hell, management couldn’t even settle on a message to the fans – the expectations were underground.
There is a pattern to their season. In a season that already has 21 comeback victories by the Cardinals, there’s a much larger reality here: their entire season is a comeback. They level off, they lose, they look lost, and we begin to doubt them … and just like that, here comes the sun! The fellas come back. They resume winning and having fun.
The Cardinals did it again this past week, blowing a series win by getting shut out and splattered by the Cubs in the final two games.
Instead of feeling down and left brooding over a lost opportunity to take three of four games from the Team Up North, the Cardinals jetted to Cleveland to wipe out the Guardians in a three-game sweep. Once again, the Cardinals summoned the perfect response to a couple of lousy losses to the Cubs.
I’ll get into the Cleveland conquest in a couple of minutes, but for now I feel like saying something:
This is a good team, and possibly a very good team. Their 47-38 record tells us that. This is reaffirmed by a .553 winning percentage that ranks 10th among the 30 MLB teams.
The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 14 games, but I think we need to expand the view, move away from a smaller sample, and take a look at a more significant body of evidence. Because when you examine a record that consists of 75 games, then it tells us a lot more than any 14-game.
Among other considerations, when we can go back to the early days of the regular season to see if a form is taking shape, the more extensive sample size also includes the slumps, losing streaks and displays of ineptitude.
After getting off to a 4-6 start in their first 10 games, the 2025 Cardinals are 43-32 since April 8. Their .573 winning percentage over that time is No. 3 among the 15 National League teams. So what’s flimsy about that? Nothing.
During the previous 83 days of the season, the only NL clubs that have won more frequently than the Cardinals are the Dodgers (.605) and Cubs (.577). That’s for real. It isn’t counterfeit.
In games against opponents that had a top-five MLB winning percentage through Sunday, the Cardinals were 13-8.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, STL has a 27-15 mark in games against teams that currently sit with a losing record.
The Cardinals are also good at making course corrections. After going 0-5 in their first five one-run games, the Cards are 15-7 in such narrow contests.
After losing 12 of their first 14 road games – horrendous! – the Cardinals have gone 19-9 away from Busch Stadium and have won six of their eight road series.
When we ask this team to do a “Show Me” to prove their worth, they take on the challenge and show us. When we watch the Redbirds get swept by the Mets in a four-game series in New York, they flip it and win a three-game series from the Mets in the rematch in St. Louis.
After we saw the bullpen get blown up repeatedly in the first three-plus weeks of the season, changes were made. And the remixing has resulted in the fourth-best fielding independent ERA by a National League set of relievers since April 24.
When we assume the Cardinals can’t hit for power at Busch Stadium – they proceed to hit for lots of power at Busch Stadium.
When we point out how the Cardinals have been surprisingly mediocre offensively on the road, they sweep three-game series from the White Sox and Guardians away from St. Louis and crush those home teams for an average of 7.6 runs, with 12 home runs, in six games.
When we worry that the St. Louis starting pitching is a house of cards, we take a closer look at the numbers and realize that their starting pitchers rank fourth in the NL in fielding-independent ERA and quality starts and are No. 2 for most innings pitched.
When the STL defense has some sloppy moments, it’s natural to wonder if they’ll clean it up right away. Answer: yes. The Cardinals are now at a season-high 30 Outs Above Average, which is the best among the 30 teams.
When the Cardinals win two games from the Cubs to move to within 2 and ½ games, then lose two in a row to fall to 4 and ½ games out – it’s normal to question whether the Redbirds can still keep it close. That’s just what they did over the weekend, picking up two games on the Cubs to reduce the deficit to 2 and ½ games by the time they departed Cleveland.
On and on. If you have any doubts about the Cardinals these days, they’ll be happy to erase them for you.
A DANDY DOZEN TAKEAWAYS FROM THE SWEEP IN CLEVELAND
1. This was the Cardinals' most dominant performance in a series this season.
2. The Cardinals walloped the Guardians for an average of 7 runs per game, batted .296, slugged .519, hit .360 with runners in scoring position and smashed 6 home runs and 6 doubles. And the Guardians have a good pitching staff.
3. Cardinals pitchers allowed only six runs in 27 innings. All six runs came against Miles Mikolas in the fourth inning of Saturday’s game. That means the Guardians failed to score – in 26 of the 27 innings contested in this series.
4. Another way to look at the weekend: the Cards outscored the Guards 21-0 except for that one inning by Mikolas.
5. After Mikolas got blasted for those half-dozen runs in one frame, the Cardinals trailed 6-1. From that point on, the Redbirds outscored Cleveland 8-0 in a rush to their 21st comeback victory of the season.
6. St. Louis starters Sonny Gray and Matthew Liberatore combined for 15 shutout innings and allowed four hits. Gray pitched a one-hit shutout on Friday. And even though Libby uncharacteristically walked five in Sunday’s start, he was dinged for only three hits in six innings.
7. In Gray’s precious diamond of a start Friday evening, he was nipped for one hit (a single) and struck out 11 in his first shutout since the 2015 season. Gray didn’t walk anyone. He got all of this done on only 89 pitches. This equated to a 96 score on the Bill James Game Score. That’s the sixth-best game score by a Cardinals starter during the expansion era, which began in 1961.
8. This is even better. Since the franchise was renamed the “Cardinals” in 1900, Gray’s beautiful 96 Game Score was the highest by a Cardinal starting pitcher who got it done in fewer than 90 pitches.
9. Liberatore’s Sunday Game Score (66) was his third best in a start this season. After getting through some turbulence during a three-start stretch, Libby has a 1.89 in his last four starts.
10. Seven different St. Louis relievers combined to work eight scoreless innings. The Cardinal bullpen crew faced 31 hitters and was scratched for only two hits, both singles.
11. When the Guardians weren’t swinging against Mikolas, they had only 6 hits in 84 at-bats against the other nine STL pitchers who appeared in the series as a starter or reliever. Goodness.
12. The sweep was a team effort. Here’s why: in the three games 12 different Cardinals had at least one hit, nine hitters had at least one RBI, 11 scored at least one run. And six different Cardinals hit exactly one home run in the series: Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Pedro Pages, Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II.
BIRD BYTES!
+ USA Today baseball columnist Bob Nightengale on Cards manager Oli Marmol: “If the National League Manager of the Year vote was conducted today, Marmol should be the runaway winner," Nightengale wrote. "If the Cardinals were supposed to step back and rebuild this year, letting the Cubs run away from the pack in the NL Central, someone forgot to tell Marmol, who has his team squarely in playoff contention with a (47-38) record."
+ After winning five of their past seven games, the Cardinals’ postseason probability has increased to 49.1 percent – that via FanGraphs. In the NL, the only teams with a higher postseason probability than STL as of Monday morning were the Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Mets and Brewers. The Cardinals have moved past the Padres and Giants and into the NL’s third wild-card spot.
+ The Cardinals are tied with Houston for the best record in the majors (33-19) since May 4. The Cards have the NL’s best winning percentage (.625) since April 30.
+ With two shutouts at Cleveland, the Cardinals increased their season total to 10 shutouts. Only one team, the Padres, have more (13.) Pedro Pages was the catcher of record in eight of the 10 shutouts, with Yohel Pozo handling the other two.
+ After his masterful performance Friday, it was telling to see Sonny Gray do the postgame on-field interview with Pages by his side. That’s what Gray wanted, and his gesture spoke loudly about the level of respect the pitchers have for Pages.
+ This season St. Louis pitchers have a 3.50 ERA with Pages calling the pitches and running the game. And the Cardinals allow only 3.83 runs when Pages is the catcher – compared to 4.66 runs allowed for Pozo, and 5.61 runs yielded for Ivan Herrera.
+ Pages leads National League catchers and is tied for first overall in pitch-calling runs above average. That metric from Sports Info Solutions is a measure on the impact of a catcher on his pitcher’s performances based on the important skill of calling smart pitches.
+ Among catchers that have received at least 7,500 pitches this season, Pages ranks 6th overall and 2nd in the NL in the Baseball Prospectus metric, catching defense added.
+ Miles Mikolas has a 6.90 ERA in his last six starts. I believe it’s time for John Mozeliak to extend the pitcher’s contract.
+ Nolan Gorman in his last 27 games: a .277 batting average, .355 on-base percentage, .554 slugging percentage, .909 OPS, six home runs, 10 extra-base hits, 16 RBIs and 14 runs scored
+ Since May 26, Gorman leads the Cardinals in slugging, on-base percentage and OPS and is 2nd in batting average, walk rate and wRC+. Gorman’s wRC+ over that time is 40 percent above the league average offensively. Gorman and Alec Burleson share the team lead with six home runs since May 26.
+ The Cardinals are 45-29 when Victor Scott starts in center field. His superb defense obviously makes a difference. But Scott has gotten back on track offensively over his last 11 games with a .359 on-base percentage and .471 slug.
+ Young relievers Riley O’Brien and Matt Svanson are providing additional quality depth for the Cards bullpen.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie and Will Leitch have a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals. It’s available wherever you go for your podcasts.