The season is moving fast, and the Cardinals haven’t been blown away by the rapid passage of time. The Redbirds are hanging in there, staying in postseason contention. Showing the hardiness to recover from setbacks.
We’ve seen a few times already this season: the fellas fall in the standings, then get up and step up to stay in the race. And that’s a good thing because the National League is a strong circuit this season, and the Cardinals will likely have a more difficult challenge to make the postseason.
Wednesday’s 8-0 loss to the Cubs was the 81st game on the St. Louis regular-season schedule. Only 81 more to go, starting with Thursday’s matinee against the Cubs at Busch Stadium. So this is the perfect time to review the first 81 games and file a midway progress report.
STATE OF THE CARDINALS THROUGH 81 GAMES
+ They’re 44-37 for a .543 winning percentage that ranks 12th overall and 8th in the National League. The Cards are in third place in the NL Central, a game behind the second-place Brewers and 3 and ½ games in arrears to the first-place Cubs. (That was before Thursday’s series finale).
+ St. Louis is in a gaggle of NL teams that have a shot to make the postseason. Using the FanGraphs playoff odds, the Cardinals went into Thursday with a 14.1 percent chance to win the division and a 36.5% probability of making it to the postseason tournament.
+ How does this compare to last season? The 2024 Cardinals were 42-39 (.519) through the first 81 dates on the schedule; that winning percentage ranked 6th in the NL. According to the FanGraphs playoff odds at the time, the 2024 Cardinals had a 15.4 percent chance of winning the division and a 44% crack at qualifying for the postseason.
+ That information tells us that the NL is deeper and stronger in 2025 compared to last season. Even though the Cardinals had fewer wins (42) at this point a year ago, they were 6th in the NL and had more favorable playoff odds.
+ Despite having a better winning percentage through 81 games this season, the 2025 Cardinals are two spots lower (8th) in the overall NL standings and have a lesser probability of becoming a playoff team. The NL was softer in 2024, and appears to be a more rugged territory halfway through the ‘25 campaign.
THE ST. LOUIS OFFENSE
All in all, Cardinals fans should be pleased, and context is important.
— The 2024 Cardinals finished 26th overall and 13th among 15 NL teams with an average of 4.15 runs per game.
— This season the Redbirds are 7th overall and 4th in the NL with an average of 4.72 runs per game.
— Through 81 games, the Cardinals rank tied for 3rd in the NL in batting average, tied for 5th on-base percentage, rank 7th in slugging, 6th in OPS and are tied for 5th in adjusted OPS.
— A vital area of improvement is STL’s performance when batting with runners in scoring position. Last year’s team had the NL’s worst batting average (.229) and poorest OPS (.644) in the RISP category. Through 81 games this season, the Cardinals are 5th in batting average (.264) and 6th in OPS (.751) in RISP opportunities.
— Speed isn’t much of a factor. The Cardinals don’t steal a lot of bases and have the worst speed score (per FanGraphs) by a NL club. The Cardinals have the third-worst sprint speed among NL teams.
— The Cardinals’ recent power show has improved the look, but they rank 9th among NL teams with an average of 1.00 homers per nine innings. That’s a slight drop from their 2024 rate of 1.02 HRs per 9.
-– Best part of the offense: the Cardinals are thriving at Busch Stadium this season, ranking in the top five NL teams in home-ballpark runs, batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. And they’re a fine 6th in slugging. Per wRC+, the Cardinals are 13 percent above league average when hitting at home.
-– Worst part of the offense: the Cardinals are ineffective when hitting on the road. Their road slugging percentage is .375, which is is 21 points less than their slugging at home. And per wRC+ the Cards are 7 percent below league average when hitting on the road.
THE ST. LOUIS PITCHING
— In a word: underrated. This group doesn’t have much strikeout pop, but they’ve done an effective job in other areas to compensate for that weakness. And they induce a high percentage of ground balls, which is fine with the defensive skill behind them.
— This pitching staff doesn’t allow many home runs, and does a good job of limiting walks. That’s why we see the Cardinals pitchers, as a group, rank high in fielding independent ERA. The overall staff FIP (3.70) is 4th best in the NL. The overall walk rate (7.2%) is the best in the NL. Their rate of home runs yielded per 9 innings (0.86) is third best in the NL.
— The other significant quality of the STL staff is the ability to command pitches. The control is sharp, and this is one of finest “location” staff in the majors. (Location as in putting the pitch where you want to put the pitch. Hitting your spots.) This doesn’t get talked about enough in these parts but the Cards are second best in the NL and third in the majors at locating their pitches with precision.
— Cardinals starting pitchers rank 3rd in the NL with a smooth 3.69 FIP, and are 5th with 34 quality starts. These starters turn in more innings than we assume, ranking 4th in the NL for most innings pitched, and 3rd in average innings per start. But manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake put an emphasis on efficiency, and getting through an inning in a way that limits the pitch count. Cards starters average 85 pitches per start, and that’s a big reason why this starting rotation went through the first half of the regular season without any injuries to their major-league starters. I don’t think Blake and Marmol get nearly enough credit for how they’ve worked around the reality of having a low-strikeout staff.
— The St. Louis bullpen was vulnerable and hittable for about the first month of the season, but Marmol and Blake reordered the reliever mix to attain better results. Since April 25, the Redbirds are 4th in the NL with a 3.71 FIP, and have put a stronger limit on home runs and walks.
— The only real alarm is the five blown saves by closer Ryan Helsley. But the Cardinals have overcome that by winning games, anyway, after squandering a late lead. Since the bullpen reorganization on April 25, the Cardinals are 32-1 when leading through eight innings. In other words, Helsley has blown a few saves, sure. But he was tagged for three losses because of blown saves very early in the season. But since April 25, even though Helsley has given up the tying run a few times, the Cardinals have lost only one of his blown-save games over that time.
THE ST. LOUIS DEFENSE
Well, I guess it depends how you want to look at it. This is true: the Cardinals have been dropping in the rankings for defensive runs saved, and were 19th in the majors in DRS (+8) through 81 games. This is also true: the Cardinals’ defense has shown the best range in the majors, ranking first with 27 Outs Above Average.
This discrepancy is symbolized by shortstop Masyn Winn, who is below average in defensive runs saved and well above average on OAA. But three Cardinals score well in both DRS and OAA: center fielder Victor Scott, third baseman Nolan Arenado, and first baseman Willson Contreras.
As the first 81 games rolled on, the Cardinals didn’t convert as many balls in play into outs. And that percentage of converting balls in play into outs recently dropped below 70 percent (to 69%) for the first time this season. Batted-ball luck is always a factor in this.
I think we can all agree on this: the Cardinals play good defense. And at times the defense can be spectacular. But I’m not entirely sure they’ll continue to play high-level defense over the final 81 games.
THE RUNWAY-SEASON REPORT
Success: starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore, outfielder Alec Burleson, DH Ivan Herrera, and two players because of strong defense: Victor Scott in center, and catcher Pedro Pages. I would also put reliever Kyle Leahy on this list, but he’s lost some effectiveness.
Partial Success: Nolan Gorman. He’s on the upswing, and it’s encouraging, but we have to see what happens over the final 81 games. In his final 23 games of the first half, Gorman had a .299 average, .382 OBP, .597 slugging percentage and .979 OPS.
Failure: Right fielder Jordan Walker. He has a 58 OPS+, which puts him 42 percent below league average offensively. That’s a 55 percent downfall since Walker’s rookie season OPS+ of 113. Chasing pitches out of the zone, an alarming swing-miss and strikeout rate, and a defensive decline that has placed him at minus 4 in defensive runs saved.
PLEASANT SURPRISES
Reliever Phil Maton: I can’t believe this dude was sitting there as a free agent as spring-training camps opened, waiting to find a new home. Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made a smart move by giving Maton a one-year deal for the bargain price of $2 million. Through the first 81 games, Maton ranked 6th among innings-qualified NL relievers in ERA (1.76), 6th in WAR (1.0), and 7th with an average of 12.03 strikeouts per nine innings. In 16 appearances since May 5, Maton has pitched 16 and ⅔ innings of scoreless relief, allowing only eight hits and striking out 37.5 percent of batters faced.
Alec Burleson: he’s playing solid defense in right field, left field and first base. And since April 22 Burleson has a .321 average. 530 slug and .876 OPS. And this left-handed batter is doing damage to lefty pitchers.
Willson Contreras at first base: Some people may be surprised by how well he’s played there, but I thought he’d do a good job at his new spot.
Lefty pitcher Steven Matz: He’s done a nice job. But I’m also wondering if that will continue; in eight June relief appearances he has an 8.44 ERA and has yielded three home runs in 10 and ⅔ innings.
Catcher Yoehl Pozo: I never heard of the man (my bad) until the Cardinals summoned him from Triple A Memphis. This aggressive right-handed batter has done a fantastic job of hammering lefty pitchers with a .409 batting average and .636 slugging in percentage. And when Pozo enters a game as a substitute, he’s given the Cards with five hits and four RBIs in 11 at-bats. That’s a batting average of .455.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
Ryan Helsley: much respect to the NL’s best reliever in 2024, but he isn’t nearly as dominant this season. His ERA (.354) is way up, his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is inflated, opponents are hitting the ball a lot harder, and the home-run rate against him has skyrocketed. The root cause of this trouble is a flat four-seam fastball that doesn’t have the same vertical or horizontal movement. Hitters have blasted that problematic four-seamer for a .436 average and .582 slugging percentage this season.
Roster Construction: the position-player depth lacks quality, and the logjams all over the place could make for a baffling “Impossible Puzzle.” (Which is a real puzzle.)
Lars Nootbaar: He’s really important to this lineup, but his inconsistency is troubling. And injuries may be a factor over the remaining 81 games.
Ivan Herrera: there’s nothing wrong with his offensive performance; he’s an excellent hitter. But his 2025 season has been disrupted (twice) by injuries. After missing 32 games with a bone bruise in his knee, Herrera is back on the IL with a strained hamstring. He’s already missed seven games and won’t be back anytime soon. Having Herrera out opens up more at-bats for other Cardinals, but let’s not be silly here. When he could play, Herrera was the team’s best hitter with a wRC+ that’s 59 percent above the league average.
Jordan Walker: I’ve already discussed him and there’s no reason to pile on.
Offense from the outfielder group: over the first 81 games, St. Louis outfielders ranked 12th among 15 NL teams with a wRC+ that was 10 percent below league average offensively. The outfield contingent collectively batted .233 with a .315 OBP and .356 slug. Mediocre, to say the least.
TEAM MVP OF THE FIRST 81 GAMES
In my view, it was Brendan Donovan. But I suppose a case could be made for others including Burleson, Winn, Contreras, etc.
CY YOUNG OF THE FIRST 81 GAMES
No disrespect to Sonny Gray, but my choice is Matthew Liberatore. Why? Because Cards starting pitchers Libby has the best fielding independent ERA (2.97), the lowest walk rate, the lowest home-run rate, the best strikeout-walk ratio, the best WHIP, and the No. 2 strikeout rate.
THE 81-GAME OVERVIEW
The Cardinals have exceeded the preseason forecasts and expectations. The offense is stronger than anticipated. The pitching has held up better than we thought it would. The defense provides reliable security for a pitching staff that isn’t built to pile up strikeouts. After a slow start the Cardinals have excelled at winning one-run games, beating up on the seven teams with the worst winning percentage in the majors, and were up to the challenge when playing MLB’s top 10 teams (via winning percentage.)
During the first 50 percent of their schedule, the Cardinals won series from the Phillies (2), Mets (1), Dodgers (1), Brewers (1), Astros (1) and Diamondbacks (1).
The only regret for the Cardinals is avoiding down periods of baseball that limited their win total. The streakiness works both ways. But perhaps this is indicative of what the Cardinals are, and what we should expect.
The Cardinals are a likeable team with an appealing personality. They play hard, do not relent, and compete with passion and joy. The team culture is positive, happy, proactive, and a factor in the success.
I love this team’s energy and stubborn determination to fight back when trailing early in games. The Cardinals won 44 of their first 81 games and 20 of the victories were comebacks.
I thought Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy summed it up well after his team won two of three from the Cardinals earlier.
“The Cardinals,” he said, “just play ball.”
That’s a big compliment from the future Hall of Fame manager.
There are real tests ahead for the Cardinals, and I’ll address them in Friday’s Redbird Review.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM0 and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic.