Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (44-36) vs Chicago Cubs (46-33)
Time: 6:45pm CT Wednesday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Erick Fedde (3-6, 3.54 ERA) vs Matthew Boyd (6-3, 2.84 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cubs -156, Cardinals +127
Total: 8.5 (over -122, under +100)
Cards Go For Series Win
The St. Louis Cardinals look to take the series from the Chicago Cubs when the two teams meet tonight in the third of a four-game series.
The Redbirds won the first two games to pull within 2.5 games of the first-place Cubs and tie their season-high of being eight games over .500. The Cards have had three prior opportunities to climb to nine over .500, but they lost each time.
Redbirds Cooking Offensively
The Cardinals have won seven of their last eight games with their red-hot bats leading the way. They are averaging 6.75 runs per game during this stretch and have mashed seven home runs in the first two games of this series.
The Cards look to continue their sizzling offensive run in support of Erick Fedde tonight. The right-hander leads the starting staff with a 3.54 ERA, but the underlying numbers continue to look worrisome with a 4.99 expected ERA. Fedde also has a career-low 39.7% groundball rate this season, which could prove troublesome against a high-scoring Chicago offense on yet another hot night at Busch Stadium.
Boyd Pitching Well For Chicago
Matthew Boyd will start for the Cubs looking to help them end a three-game losing streak. The left-hander has impressed this season with a 2.84 ERA, and over his last five starts, Boyd has gone 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP.
The Cubs continue to boast one of baseball’s best offenses. They scored 7 more runs last night, bringing their season average to 5.39 runs per game (2nd in MLB).
My Lean
It certainly feels like Fedde and Boyd are due for regression. I made the case for Fedde above, and I just don’t buy Boyd as a likely candidate to keep up this great performance. Boyd is an 11-year veteran with a career 4.67 ERA, so I highly doubt he has suddenly figured out how to dominate. I just think he’s hot right now.
However, I’ve been burned several times lately banking on regression instead of just riding players and teams while they are hot. So this falls short of making my card tonight, but my lean for this game is the over. The ball is flying at Busch this week, the Cardinals are blasting homers, and I think there’s a good chance we see some more balls flying out of the yard tonight for both teams.
Lean: Over 8.5 at -122 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer