The Cardinals once again displayed their recuperative powers last week, winning five of six games after getting wiped out and left gasping during a gruesome six-game losing streak.
And so it goes. More than anything, the Cardinals are defined by their inconsistency – but also by the resiliency that lifts them to their feet after they’ve been knocked down.
Follow the bouncing baseball team …
* Open the season with a three-game sweep of the Twins … then lose six of their next eight to the Angels, Red Sox and Pirates.
* Win two series from the Phillies and Astros … followed by a 1-6 spiral in seven games against the Mets and Braves.
* Go on an 18-5 gallop against the Mets, Pirates, Nationals, Phillies, Royals, Tigers, Diamondbacks and Orioles … only to lose 10 of their next 14 games against the Rangers, Royals, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Brewers. That down time included the six-game losing skid.
* And now, another resuscitation: the 6-2 record in their last eight games. That includes the 5-1 mark against the White Sox and Reds.
For the 2025 Cardinals, what goes up must come down. And what goes down, must come up. It’s been a series of adventures – leading to happiness or heartburn. There have been conquests and collapses and everything in between.
And now the mighty Chicago Cubs are in town for a four-game set at Busch Stadium. It’s about time. Between now and July 6, the Cards-Cubs will play each other in seven of the next 13 games for both clubs.
THOUGHTS & NOTES ON THE CUBS-CARDS FESTIVITIES
1) Chicago leads St. Louis by 4 and ½ games in the NL Central. I don’t know how much this series will really change things, but it’s a chance for the Cardinals to spar with one of the better teams in baseball, and the Redbirds have done well in these type of conflicts, having won two series from the Phillies and taking one series from the Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Brewers and Diamondbacks.
2) Clay Davenport’s projection model gives the Cardinals a 14.5% chance of winning the NL Central and a 44.7% shot of making the playoffs. The Cardinals would pick up a couple of games on the Cubs by winning three of the four games. But if the Cardinals lose three of four, they’ll trail the Cubs by 6 and ½ games. And getting swept by the Cubs this week would leave the Cards 8 and ½ games out of first.
3) Even if the Cardinals win this series, I still believe the Cubs will remain the clear favorite to capture the Central – especially if the front office trades for a quality starting pitcher. But the National League field is loaded with wild-card contenders, and a successful series against the Cubs would put St. Louis in a more favorable position in the wild-card derby. For now, anyway. Things can quickly change. And the two teams will soon have a rematch with three games at Wrigley Field starting July 4.
4) The No. 1 challenge for the Cardinals over the next four games is limiting the damage done by Chicago’s dangerous offense. The Cubs are 2nd in MLB in runs scored per game (5.42) and rank 3rd in homers, 3rd in extra-base hits, 4th in slugging and in slugging, and fourth in OPS. But in the majors only the Dodgers have a higher adjusted OPS than the Cubs.
5) To put it another way, using adjusted OPS: the Cardinals are exactly league average offensively – and the Cubs are 20 percent above the league average.
6) The Cubs have six hitters with 11 home runs or more: Pete Crow-Armstrong (21), Seiya Suzuki (20), Kyle Tucker (15), Dansby Swanson (14), Michael Busch (12) and Ian Happ (11.) The Cardinals’ leading home-run hitters are Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado with 10 each.
7) This stat will explain the nature of each team’s offense: the Cardinals have 53 more singles than the Cubs this season. Isn’t that cute? But the Cubs have 54 more extra-base hits than the Cardinals. What would you rather have? A big edge in singles or an even larger edge in extra-base hits? Chicago’s slugging percentage (.444) is 53 points higher than STL’s .391.
8) There is a massive gap between the Cubs and Cardinals in their offensive production from their outfielders. And these stats only include the numbers turned in by a hitter when he’s taking a plate appearance as an outfielder. All other positions are excluded.
– Home runs by outfielders: Cubs 54 (1st in MLB), Cardinals 21 (24th.)
– RBIs by outfielders: Cubs 166 (1st), Cards 99 (18th.)
– Batting average by outfielders: Cubs .270 (3rd), Cards .236 (21st.)
– On-base percentage by outfielders: Cubs .343 (2nd), Cards .320 (13th).
– Slugging percentage by outfielders: Cubs .520 (1st), Cardinals .354 (26th.)
– OPS by outfielders: Cubs .863 (2nd), Cards .673 (25th.)
– wRC+ by outfielders: Cubs 39 percent above league average offensively (2nd), Cards eight percent below league average offensively (23rd.)
9) The Cubs have another huge advantage on the Cardinals offensively: stolen bases. The Cubs are 3rd in the majors with 91 steals. And their stolen base success rate (85%) ranks 2nd. The Cardinal are 20th in steals, with only 43. And their success rate, 75.4%, ranks 22nd.
10) The same applies to preventing stolen bases. Cubs rank 7th in the majors with a caught-stealing rate of 30%, and the Cardinals are tied for 23rd at 19%.
11) Generally speaking, the Cardinals and Cubs aren’t that much different statistically in starting-pitching ERA. But the Cardinals’ starters have generated more WAR value (7.3) than Chicago’s starters (4.4). And STL has a 33-30 edge in quality starts.
12) Because of injuries, the Cardinals should have a better performance from their starting pitchers. The only St. Louis pitcher to spend time on the IL is Zack Thompson, who has missed 88 days (and counting) with a strained lat muscle. But Thompson wasn't in the major-league plans this season. Not at the beginning, anyway.
13) Seven Cubs pitchers have logged 445 days of missed time (and counting) this season. That includes starting pitchers Justin Steele (elbow surgery), Shota Imanaga (hamstring) and Javier Assad (oblique.) Imanaga missed 49 days but is scheduled to return from the IL to start against the Cardinals this week. Steele, the Cubs’ ace, was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery. And there’s no timetable for Assad’s return.
14) All of the baseball pundits believe the Cubs will go in big to deal for a quality starter before the July 31 trade deadline. Some good arms will be available.
15) Crow-Armstrong and Seiya each have 20+ homers before the All-Star break. The Cubs haven’t had two 20+ home runs hitters before the All-Star break since Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo did it in 2016.
16) Pardon me for not putting on the Fredbird costume for some rah-rah-rah here ... but the Cardinals don’t have a position player that can match Pete Crow-Armstrong. And it isn’t close. Among National League position players, Armstrong ranks 4th in homers (21), 4th in RBIs (61), 4th in slugging (.559), 2nd in stolen bases (23) and leads NL center fielders in both defensive runs saved and outs above average. That combination of skill puts Crow-Armstrong at the top of the NL for most Wins Above Replacement (3.9).
17) Former Cardinals draft pick and backup catcher Carson Kelly is thriving as the Cubs’ starting catcher. Among other positives Kelly has a .352 on-base percentage and .465 slug. Per wRC+, Kelly is 36 percent above league average offensively, which puts him 3rd among NL catchers that have at least 170 plate appearances. And Kelly is a gem defensively. Among MLB catchers that have played at least 365 innings this season, Kelly ranks No. 2 with a caught-stealing rate of 34 percent – which is 11 percent above the league average. He’s also 4th at the catcher position in defensive runs saved. Classy guy. Happy for him.
BIRD BYTES
+ No surprise to see backup catcher Yohel Pozo deliver the winning hit in Saturday’s wild win over the Reds. When Pozo doesn’t start but comes off the bench this season, he’s 5 for 11 (.455) with a .545 slugging percentage and .962 OPS. The big man is a big weapon when lumbering off the bench to join the fray.
+ Since returning from the IL, Cards right fielder Jordan Walker is 3 for 18 (.167) with a 31.5 percent strikeout rate. At the start of the new week, Walker has a .210 average, .267 onbase percentage, .295 slug, .562 OPS and a 33% strikeout rate. All of those figures would be the worst for Walker in a major-league season. As a rookie in 2023, Walker was 13 percent above league average in OPS+. This season his OPS+ is 42 percent below league average. How long will the “runway” last?
CHECKING A NARRATIVE
I was confused by the media-driven narrative that suddenly kicked in after the Cardinals lost to the Reds on Sunday. It was all about how the Cardinals can’t count on being a power-hitting team at home because Busch Stadium suppresses power. So in order to score, the Cardinals must change their hitting approach to string together a bunch of hits instead of relying on the longball.
I don’t think so. Sorry. This narrative would make sense, given Busch’s reputation as a pitcher’s yard …. except the facts don’t match the theory. At least not with the St. Louis offense.
Through Sunday the Cardinals had played 39 home games, and 39 road games. And they have just as many homers at home (37) as on the road. Their home slugging percentage (.408) is 33 points higher than their road slug (.375.) The Cardinals have five more doubles at home than on the road. The Cardinals have hit more singles at home – 243 to 222 – but that’s hardly significant.
The extra singles at home don’t reflect a specific hitting approach that’s devised hitting at Busch; it’s just another stat that reflects HOW WELL the Cardinals perform offensively at home compared to when they’re traveling.
STL’s home OPS (.746) this season is 55 points higher than the road OPS (.691.) And with runners in scoring position, the Cardinals have a higher batting average (.265) slugging percentage (.422) and home runs (12) at home. And a .262 average, .405 slug and eight homers when hitting with RISP on the road.
The bottom line? Per wRC+, the Cardinals perform 19 percent better offensively when they’re playing at home. They’re 12 percent above league average offensively at Busch Stadium – and seven percent below average when away from their home ballpark.
Having said all that, Busch Stadium does provide shelter for St. Louis pitchers. They have a 3.64 ERA at home and a 4.28 ERA on the road. They allow 0.70 home runs per nine innings at Busch – compared to 0.96 homers per nine innings on the road. And the slugging percentage against STL pitchers is higher on the road (.407) than it is at home (.368.)
But Busch Stadium does not suppress the St. Louis offense.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the Katie Woo of The Athletic.