After losing 9 of their first 12 games in June, and having a lapse in quality in every area of play, have the St. Louis Cardinals finally stabilized?
There are signs of that, yes. But only signs. What happens next will give us a better idea of how to assess this team.
The Redbirds have won four of their last five competitions, averaging 7 runs per game in the process. The starting pitching has rebounded a bit. The bullpen has been reinforced by relievers Andre Granillo and Riley O’Brien.
Manager Oli Marmol is doing what he can to handle a mind-bending Gordian Knot of a roster – so I understand why the feisty skipper barks at umpires to offload frustration. This team has thin depth – and a thin line between winning and losing.
It’s a question I ask frequently: who are the Cardinals? Well, there are more positives than negatives baked into their 40-35 record. They are up. They are down. They’ve had stretches of performing like one of the best teams in the majors. They’ve had slideslips that look like something we’d see from the Colorado Rockies.
The Cardinals are stubborn. They get after it. They are always interesting. There is more drama with this group than I’d expect from a team that’s five games over .500.
Thursday’s doubleheader sweep over the White Sox was a great example. Over 19 innings of baseball, the Cardinals cycled through inspiring play and depressing play. They gave us thrills. They left us disgusted. They were smart. They were foolish. They competed with authority. They played down to a humbling White Soxian level.
There were sudden momentum changes. Pandemonium. Cheerful optimism and grave pessimism – all during the same at-bat. It was emotionally exhausting just to watch.
The Cardinals have 18 comeback wins – but have blown 17 leads. They can shut down Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman … then serve up a meatball for a grand-slam home run to Andrew Benintendi.
Then again, what do we expect?
This is their team, right?
It’s a damn Tilt-A-Whirl.
It’s Team Whiplash.
For the Cardinals to be successful for more than a couple of weeks at a time, they’ll need many of their guys performing up to their ceiling of their capabilities. That’s why the Cardinals went 21-8 during an exhilarating run that began April 30.
But when the Cardinals have too many players performing below their realistic potential, the club will drift off to 10 losses over 14 games – which occurred from May 30 through June 13.
The best thing about the Cardinals? Their resilience.
The worst thing about the Cardinals? Their inconsistency.
As a team stuck in the middle, the Cardinals get bumper-car smacked into a wall, spin around, recover from their dizzy spell, and then accelerate in search of what comes next – be it another collision or another victory.
The Cardinals are rarely dull or boring. They keep it interesting. They have a strong pulse and heartbeat. But the baseball IQ isn’t always there.
It is a team that declares 2025 as a “runway season” that will give expanded opportunities to young players. But it is also a team that believes it can win and is determined to win.
It is a team that has a pitcher who checks the boxes – he’s young, talented and good enough to help this team win. He’s both a “runway” guy and a “winning” guy.
That’s exactly what this season is supposed to be, right? That’s the ideal combination. OK, so why do the Cardinals keep sending this young-talented-winning-runway pitcher, Michael McGreevy – back to Memphis?
The Cardinals wait and wait and wait for Nolan Gorman to get going. And when he’s showing excellent form – leading the team in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and walk rate over two–plus weeks – the Redbirds cool him down and disrupt his momentum by sitting him in the first game at Chicago with a right-handed starting pitcher on the mound for the White Sox. This, coming a couple of days after the left-handed hitting Gorman rocked a three-run homer off a lefty reliever to help the Cardinals win their only game at Milwaukee.
Gorman is rolling! Isn’t this awesome?
RUNWAY, baby!
Uh, no.
“OK, Gorman … you’re finally doing great. How about that? Way to go, man! Now go sit down. You’re not in the lineup.”
I’ll say this: this insanity is spectacular. And in a weird way, that’s part of the entertainment. The Cards front office doesn’t think about things enough.
Hey, if we had a proven winning philosophy in 2014, then it still works in 2023, OK. So we’ll keep going at it the same way. No need to change anything.
The Cards manager, Oli Marmol, is the opposite of that. He means well … but he often overthinks before making a decision. It’s the old saying: he outsmarts himself.
All of that said … the Cardinals keep us guessing. It’s like a Game Show that lasts six months. Buzzers and bells and whistles. What’s next? What’s behind Door No. 2? Hell if I know.
BIRD BYTES
1. The Cardinals sutured some wounds and stopped their bleeding by going 4-1 in their last five games. And by sweeping the White Sox, the Cardinals came home with a 4-3 record on the road trip to Milwaukee and Chicago. So, that’s a net positive.
2. I don’t care if the White Sox stink. You either win or lose a game, and that’s the bottom line. The Cardinals easily could have lost both ends of Thursday’s doubleheader but didn’t let it happen. They were persistent, wouldn’t break, and kept going until they found a path to victory. I give them credit for that. I see no reason to discredit success.
3. But the road trip is in the past behind the Cardinals now. Next up is a compelling and colorful 7-game homestand that begins Friday: three games against the Reds, followed by a four-game visit by the Cubs.
4. First of all, the Cardinals have to reestablish their home field edge. The last time the Redbirds were at Busch Stadium they lost two of three series, and dropped six of nine games to the Royals, Dodgers and Blue Jays. The Cards closed the homestand with four straight losses. Up until that home stand the Cardinals had won 19 of 27 games at Busch Stadium on the season, so this is their opportunity to get back to that and make their ballpark a tough place for visiting teams.
5. Any progress the Cards made by winning four of their last five games will be wiped out if they lose the next series to the Reds, followed by a beatdown administered by the Cubs. I have reasonable expectations.
6. First, the Cardinals must show they’re better than the Reds. The teams split a four-game series in Cincy in late April, and the Reds were flopping around during the first half of May.
7. But manager Terry Francona’s team has turned it around, going 19 and 12 since May 15. The Reds have really surged over the last couple of weeks, winning nine of 12 games and taking four straight series by beating Arizona, Cleveland, Detroit and Minnesota.
8. The Reds are coming to town with something to prove. The Cubs are clearly the class of the division … a reality that leaves the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds wrestling with each other for a chance to position themselves for a shot at a National League wild-card spot.
9. The Cardinals lost traction and some credibility during a 5-11 rut that began May 30. Since that date the Cardinals have the worst record in the NL Central (8-11) and the Brewers and Reds have been playing better ball. After the recent uptick by the Cardinals, a loss to the Reds would be a setback – especially with the Cubs coming into Busch on Monday.
10. The Cards and Brewers are tied for second place in the NL Central at 40-35, and the Reds are a half-game behind them. According to the FanGraphs playoff odds on Friday morning, St. Louis has a 31.7% chance of making the postseason, the Brewers are right there with a 31.6% shot – and the Reds have a 10.4% probability of playing postseason baseball.
11. Kudos to Nolan Arenado on career home run No. 350. I did a video on why he’s a Cooperstown Hall of Famer. Please watch it. One little factoid: during the expansion era, which began in 1961, only two MLB third basemen have this combination: at least 10 gold gloves, at least 350 home runs, and at least eight All-Star selections. Mike Schmidt, and Nolan Arenado.
12. In the here and the now, over his last 14 games Arenado is batting .346 with a .538 slugging percentage and .920 OPS – and has three homers and nine runs batted in. Keep it up!
13. The so-called “Runway” player that has made the best of his 2025 opportunity is Alec Burleson. What a fantastic series for Burly in Chicago. In the three wins Burly went 7 for 13 (.538) with two homers and five RBIs. Burly, who swings from the left side, also went 2 for 3 with a homer vs. Chicago’s lefty pitchers. Burleson is 8 for 18 (.444) against lefties this month.
14. Burleson’s offense has been outstanding since he began cranking up in late April. Among hitters that have at least 150 plate appearances over that time, Burly leads the National League with a .347 average. And he ranks sixth in the NL in OPS (.921), eighth in the NL with a .542 slugging percentage – and, per wRC+, Burly has been the NL’s fourth-best overall hitter at a rate of 59 percent above league average offensively since April 22.
15. Respect for Cards starter Erik Fedde, who has a 2.53 ERA and a 3.47 fielding independent ERA in his last eight assignments. Fedde pitched to 191 hitters in the eight starts and was struck for only three home runs. Keeping the ball in the yard is a key to his success.
16. Cards first baseman Willson Contreras is slugging .455 in his last 66 games and his 50 RBIs over that time rank sixth in the NL. In his last 51 games Contreras is hitting .290 with a .388 OBP, .500 slug, 12 doubles, nine homers and 43 RBIs.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.