Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (36-33) at Milwaukee Brewers (37-33)
Time: 7:10pm CT Friday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Erick Fedde (3-5, 3.54 ERA) vs Freddy Peralta (5-4, 2.69)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Brewers -156, Cardinals +128
Total: 7.5 (over -115, under -106)
Cards Look To End Slide
The St. Louis Cardinals hope to snap their five-game losing streak when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers tonight in the second of a four game series.
The Redbirds’ pitching has regressed to the mean over the last 13 games. The Cards are 4-9 and have allowed an average of 5.77 runs per game during that stretch.
Fedde Due For Regression
Erick Fedde will be on the bump tonight for the Cardinals. The right-hander is coming off a start where he walked 4 and struck out only 2, but he was able to cobble together 5.1 shutout innings against the Dodgers.
That start was a recurring theme for Fedde. With an ugly 46-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 73.2 innings this season, he is definitely due for a start with poor results. Fedde’s season ERA is 3.54, but his xERA is 5.28 and his xFIP is 5.08.
Peralta Regression Due As Well
Tonight’s Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta has been a rock-solid consistent presence for the Brewers in their rotation. He has given up more than 3 earned runs just once all season in his 14 starts.
However, Peralta is also due for some regression in his season-long numbers. His 2.69 ERA comes with a 3.60 xERA, 3.89 FIP, and 4.10 xFIP.
My Pick
Regression has been a theme for the Cardinals of late, as they had been playing at a 90+ win pace. The current five-game losing streak has brought their pace down to a more reasonable 84.5 wins.
I’m confident we will see regression from at least one of Fedde and Peralta tonight, and I’m more confident about Fedde getting hit hard. There are hitters up and down the Milwaukee lineup that have had much success against him. Brewers hitters on their roster have exactly 100 combined at-bats against Fedde in their careers, and they are hitting .400 with a .474 on-base percentage and a 1.104 OPS.
Meanwhile, Peralta has struggled against the Cardinals in his career with a 4-6 record and 4.91 ERA in 19 games (15 starts).
I would endorse taking the over 7.5 on its own at -115, but I’m going to tack on Fedde allowing at least 2 earned runs to give myself a plus money price.
Pick: Same Game Parlay priced at +104 on DraftKings - Over 7.5 runs in the game AND Erick Fedde to allow 2+ earned runs (bet to +100)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer