The MLB trade deadline is at 5 p.m. St. Louis time on July 31, and prognostication season is in full swing.
Although, to be honest, there is rarely a break in the efforts of MLB analysts to predict what moves might be coming next. Even at 5:01 p.m. on the last day of July, there will still be discussions over lineup decisions, September callups, potential playoff rosters. And of course, the start of free agency will be here before we know it, spurring predictions over how teams could try to fill holes.
But in mid-June, it’s all about the trade talk, and there is no shortage of it floating around TV shows, radio dials and computer screens.
For a lot of teams, the talk isn't solely about which players could be involved. There’s also the matter of how teams should even approach the deadline, starting with that oft-asked question: buyers or sellers?
With recent changes in MLB’s playoff format – a second wild card team added in 2012, a third in 2022 – several teams regularly find themselves caught in the murky middle, not quite sure if they should make additions to boost their playoff chances or take advantage of valuable trade chips to build up for the future.
The St. Louis Cardinals are one of those teams.
Despite a six-game losing streak, the Cardinals entered the game at Milwaukee on Friday night at 36-34 overall, 6.0 games behind the Chicago Cubs (42-28) in the NL Central and 3.0 games out of the final wild card spot. Certainly not as close as they would like, but close enough to entertain postseason possibilities.
And they aren’t alone. Just within the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers (38-33) sit 1.5 games ahead of St. Louis, 4.5 games behind the Cubs and 1.5 out of the No. 3 wild card position. The Cincinnati Reds (35-35) trail the Cardinals by one game, 7.0 out of first place in the division and 4.0 behind the final wild card.
Brewers Rumored to Have Interest in Bo Bichette
Like the Cardinals, the Brewers will let the next 5-6 weeks determine their trade deadline approach, although they did trade pitcher Aaron Civale to the Chicago White Sox on Friday for first baseman Andrew Vaughn at the veteran right-hander's request after he had been moved into the Milwaukee bullpen to make room for rookie Jacob Misiorowski.
Milwaukee has been generally pleased with its pitching, particularly among the starters, who boast the fifth-lowest ERA in MLB at 3.36. Like most teams trying to further postseason hopes, the Brewers could probably use a solid bullpen arm, but should they wish to make a significant move, rumors have them interested in Toronto infielder Bo Bichette.
Jim Bowden of The Athletic cited the left side of the infield as the Brewers’ biggest area for offensive improvement, and he touts Miguel Vargas of the Chicago White Sox as the ideal fit.
If Milwaukee becomes a seller, former Cardinals pitcher Jose Quintana is thought to be a likely trade chip. Slugging first baseman Rhys Hoskins could also be on the move, with several analysts linking him to the Boston Red Sox.
Nick Martinez Among Reds With Trade Value
This season, the Reds have been hampered by a combination of injuries to some players, like Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Austin Hays and Noelvi Marte, and inconsistent play by others, including Matt McClain and Spencer Steer. The team is hopeful of offensive gains internally simply via improved health and better outputs from players already on the roster.
Among potential trades for Cincinnati, pitcher Nick Martinez could be of interest to contending teams. A pending free agent, Martinez pitched six consecutive quality starts between late April and late May. Right-handed reliever Emilio Pagán is another possible trade piece who is on the last year of his current deal.
Pittsburgh Pitcher Andrew Heaney May Pique Interest
The Pittsburgh Pirates (29-42) will be sellers, but despite the ridiculous rumors and discussion, they will not be trading Paul Skenes – at least, not this season. But there are a few players who could be traded, such as left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has a 3.33 ERA this season and won a World Series title with Texas in 2023. Ke’Bryan Hayes is another name who has generated some interest, with talks of a potential link to the Yankees.
Cubs Expected to Target Starting Pitchers
As for the Cubs, their biggest need is pitching, particularly for the starting rotation. Analysts expect that Chicago will be involved in conversations for most of the top targets among starters, including Heaney, Arizona’s Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and Tyler Mahle of the Rangers.
Chicago will almost certainly rely completely on its minor league system for trade chips. Top prospects that could be used include outfielders Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara.