The Cardinals are in Milwaukee to play some hardball against a familiar nemesis. The Brewers are doing it again, sneaking around with a low payroll, making stealth moves, outsmarting the Cardinals, playing winning baseball against the odds, and lurking as a threat to other National League teams that have more stars, more revenue, and a more prominent presence on the MLB landscape.
And yet, we do this before every season: oh, the Brewers are cute little overachievers and all of that, but this will be the year they finally run out of the ol’ abracadabra. Go away, Crew. Go make a trip to Prairie du Chien and nibble on those delicious boiled burgers at Pete’s hamburger stand. (Yes, they are boiled … and very tasty.) But anyway, October is for the Green Bay Packers.
I’ve written this before, but the Cardinals have outspent the Brewers by $700 million in payroll since the start of the 2017 season.
The Cardinals wasted a lot of money.
From the beginning of 2017 through now, the Brewers have a higher winning percentage than the Cardinals and Cubs, have won more division titles than the Cardinals and Cubs, and have made the postseason more times than the Cardinals and Cubs, and have won more postseason games (8) than the Cardinals (4) and Cubs (4).
Despite cutting payroll by $40 million before the season, the Redbirds are still spending more than the Crew, who have a $110.5 million payroll for 2025. The Cardinals rank 19th in spending; the Brewers are 24th.
And here they come again, these pesky Brewers, bouncing their way back from a 21-24 start to win 15 of their last 23 games through Wednesday. And as the four-game series between the teams opens Thursday night at American Family Field, Milwaukee is only a half-game behind second-place St. Louis in the NL Central standings.
As much as Cards fans understandably channel most of their rivalry-generated passion into the intense rivalry with the Cubs, the Brewers have been more of an obstacle. For the Cardinals to take down the Cubs – well, they're gonna have to elbow the Brewers out of the way … and as we’ve learned, that ain’t easy. The team from the center of the Bratwurst Nation are, well, brats. And I say this with respect and admiration.
Here’s the 2025 stat that, so far, best sums up the Brewers and their mysterious ways that make no sense from the outside.
This season Milwaukee already has housed 10 pitchers on the Injured List, and these 10 chuckers had missed a combined 520 days through Wednesday. This count includes seven starting pitchers – Brandon Woodruff, Jose Quintana, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Tobias Myers, DL Hall and Robert Gasser – who have collectively missed 384 days this season.
And don’t forget that the Brewers traded their elite closer – St. Louisan Devin Williams – to the Yankees in a deal that brought Cortes to Milwaukee. And Cortes started only two games early this season before heading to the IL with a strained flexor tendon. He’s still out.
OK, so how has all of that worked out for Milwaukee? There’s no way they can survive all of those pitching injuries, a decimated rotation, and the tradeaway of their closer before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2025 season.
The report: the Brewers are 2nd in the National League for the best starting-pitcher ERA. The Cardinals rank 9th. And while the Milwaukee bullpen is hardly fireproof, the Brewers still have a better save percentage (64%) than the Cardinals (61%.)
The Williams-Cortes deal also included infielder Caleb Durbin, a Yankees’ infielder prospect who played his collegiate ball at Washington University in St. Louis. Durbin doesn’t have imposing numbers for far, but he did beat the Padres on a walk-off homer on June 7.
This is a big series for the Cardinals, who must show that their battler’s mentality can produce more wins. The Redbirds have lost seven of their last 10 games, eight of their last 12 games, and are 10-12 in their last 22. Should we view the Cardinals as legit postseason contenders – or brush them off as an early-season tease? We’ll learn more about that over the next four games in Wisconsin.
THE UPDATED ‘WORRY’ LIST
As the Cardinals start the series, here are some areas of the team that concern me after their disappointing 3-6 homestand …
LARS NOOTBAAR: Can he stop the freefall during this stop in Milwaukee? Since May 17, Noot is hitting .176 with a .253 onbase percentage, .247 slugging percentage and .500 OPS. He also has 32 strikeouts and only seven walks during his collapse. Among the 58 NL hitters that have at least 90 plate appearances since May 17, Nootbaar ranks last in slugging and OPS and is 57th among the 58 in batting average and 56th of 58 in OBP. Per wRC+, Noot has performed 55 percent league average offensively. That’s the worst in the NL and second-worst overall and the majors. You can’t have a leadoff hitter pulling your offense down like this. Nootbaar has to clear his head.
STARTING PITCHERS: During the team’s 4-8 skid through Wednesday, Cards starters rank 26th overall and 14th in the NL with a 5.17 ERA. And their 16.5 percent strikeout rate is the worst in MLB. At least the Cardinals will have their best guy, Sonny Gray, starting the opener at Milwaukee. Gray has a 7-1 record and 3.35 ERA in 13 starts so far, and his 28.8 percent strikeout rate ranks 9th in the NL. In his last four starts Gray has a 1.07 ERA with 30 strikeouts and only two walks in 25 and ⅓ innings.
RYAN HELSLEY: As I wrote about this in great detail earlier this week, Helsley’s 99 miles per hour four-seam fastball has sizzling velocity. But when Helsley gets behind the count, hitters are expecting him to throw the four-seamer – and he’s done so 80 percent of the time in those situations. The outcome: .545 batting average, .727 slugging percentage and a whiff-swing rate of only 3.6 percent. Overall this season opponents have slugged .532 against Helsley’s heat, with a shockingly low 12.2 percent strikeout rate. He needs to do a better job of locating the four-seam and probably shouldn’t be so predictable.
OVERALL BULLPEN: In the 7th and 8th innings this month, Cardinals set-up relievers have 4.58 ERA, a 6.33 fielding independent ERA, a weak 10.6 percent strikeout rate, and a walk rate that’s nearly 10%. On top of that, the setup guys have yielded an average of 1.8 homers per 9 innings. Some of this has come during garbage times. And some of the setup-relief performances (Phil Maton, JoJo Romero) have been good in June.
Steven Matz has been fantastic so far this season, with only a minor glitch this month. But Kyle Leahy’s strikeout rate has faded over time – 25 percent in the season’s first month, and 13.3% in May-June. The temporaries brought up shuttled in from Memphis – Robbery Munoz, Matt Svanson, Riley O’Brien and Chris Roycroft – don’t inspire much confidence.
With Helsley’s four-seam fastball vulnerability and some questions about the setup relief crew, the St. Louis bullpen ranks 28th overall and 14th in the NL with a 5.14 ERA since May 30. And their relievers have a pathetic 17 percent strikeout rate over that time – with one save and three blown saves.
The Cardinals – finally! – promoted Andre Granillo to the majors. His substantial strikeout power should help a punchless bullpen. Granillo, a right-hander, has a 1.82 ERA and 40 percent strikeout rate at Triple A Memphis this season. And he’s struck out 43.4 percent of hitters faced in his last 10 games.
BRENDAN DONOVAN: This, in no way, is a criticism of Donovan. He’s having a fantastic season, is in competition for an All-Star selection, plays multiple positions, and is a great competitor who inspires teammates. But he’s become so important to the STL offense, Donovan’s slumps really matter. In his last 10 games Donnie had a .184 average, .548 OPS, and a strikeout rate of 22 percent. (That’s a little high for him.) He’s also been coping with a sprained big left toe that caused enough discomfort to make him a lineup scratch for Wednesday's game. Even if Donovan returns to the lineup for three or four games in Milwaukee, I’m concerned that fatigue/pain will become an unwanted factor.
OLI MARMOL: The manager doesn’t have enough position-player or bullpen depth to call on – but he can only work with the roster he’s been given. Marmol is in a tricky position for a manager because of the way the front office marketed the season as reset-runway-transition year. He wants to win. And after the Cardinals won 20 of 27 games during a recent stretch, the expectations were raised.
But Marmol must also make some lineup decisions based on the “runway” concept that supposedly prioritizes young players. Marmol hasn’t always followed the orders; he hasn’t played Nolan Gorman as much as he should be. Marmol’s independent streak can only go so far, and it’s always important to remember something: the front-office is in charge of the roster.
I have a hunch that major-league service time is a factor in some personnel decisions; rookie starting pitcher Michael McGreevy is an example. Despite his talent, McGreevy has appeared in only six games (four starts) for the Cardinals over the last two seasons. The brief time in the majors means (to this point) that McGreevy won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2028, and can’t become a free agent until 2031. If incoming president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom sees McGreevy as a potential rotation fixture, then it makes sense to take the long view of McGreevy’s service time. All major-league teams do these kinds of things.
The Cardinals’ spirited winning spree was a fun and uplifting experience. But when an underdog team surprises everyone by putting together the NL’s best record in May, there won’t be as much patience for losing skids. Marmol is the easy scapegoat for Cardinals fans who have never embraced him in large numbers. It’s a tough spot for Oli, but this is what he signed up for.
TEAM DEFENSE: As I mentioned on my Bernie Show video on Thursday, the Cardinals still play good defense, and their defensive range rates as the best in the majors. But their fielders aren’t making as many plays, which is why the Cards have slipped to No. 17 in the majors in defensive runs saved.
THE OUTFIELD OFFENSE: The Cardinals designated outfielder Ryan Vilade for assignment Thursday to make a spot for Granillo on the 40-man roster. (So why did he start so many games when Jordan Walker went on the IL? It made little sense then and even less sense now. But with Nootbaar and Victor Scott II cratering on offense, here’s what the St. Louis outfielders have done, as a group, since the start of May: a .227 average, .305 onbase percentage, .327 slug and .632 OPS. Since the end of April, the STL outfielders have struck out 26 percent of the time and have hit only seven home runs in 392 at-bats. That’s an average of one homer for every 56 at-bats.
Michael Siani was promoted Thursday. The left-handed hitter was doing well offensively at Triple A Memphis, can play stellar defense at any outfield spot, and has excellent speed and base-stealing ability. Given the choices at Memphis, I think this was the right move – at least for now. Pardon me for being a smart aleck, but Siani can’t be any worse offensively than Nootbaar has looked at the plate over the last three-plus weeks.
Thanks for reading …
– Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.