I’m writing today’s Review before the start of Wednesday’s 1:15 p.m. game between the Blue Jays and Cardinals at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals enter the matinee on a downbound train, having lost 7 of their 11 previous games. By coming up short in two one-run losses in the first two games of the bluebird vs. redbird matchup, Cardinals have now lost three of their last four series. And they’ve dropped two of their last three sets at Busch Stadium.
Not good.
If the Cardinals are going to save the St. Louis summer and turn it into an endless summer of joy, entertainment and excitement that comes with winning baseball, the chirping Redbirds have to start winning again.
I am sorry to break the news, but for all of the ecstasy that raised the morale of our humble village, the 2025 season did not begin or end with the capturing of that fun home series against the Dodgers this past weekend in Downtown St. Louis.
The Dodgers and their battered pitching staff have been mucking it up with a 17-18 record since May 4. Taking the first two games of the LA series was great. But what’s not so great is following up that epic conquest (sarcasm alert) by losing the next three games to halt your momentum.
Tuesday’s 10-9 loss to Team Canada knocked the Cardinals back to the .500 level (28-23) for the first time since May 23. It’s a long, hot and exhausting season.
“This is baseball,” Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. said. “It's going to bring you up, it's going to bring you down. You just have to find a way to ride that wave.”
After defeating the Dodgers by taking two of three games, the Cardinals didn’t save the St. Louis summer.
Why? Because summer doesn’t begin until June 20. And the beloved Redbirds have lost altitude. There’s still plenty of time to rise up and soar again.
Saving the summer sounds nice and all. Can I have a few margaritas with that? Can I put on a Quicksilver tee, listen to “Good Vibrations” and sing along?
For now – at this point – I would be pleased if the Cardinals saved the current week.
One way or the other, the Toronto series has been lost. Next up is a four-game stay in Milwaukee against a Brewers team that rebounded from a 21-25 start to post the NL’s best record (15-7) since May 18. The Crew’s hot streak could be 16-7 by the time the Cardinals land in Milwaukee tonight.
TOPIC OF THE DAY
BATTED BALL LUCK
HAS TURNED
AGAINST YOUR CARDINALS!
It’s an unfortunate – if not unexpected – development.
In their first 56 games of the season, opponents had a .282 batting average on balls in play against St. Louis pitching. That was the 12th lowest BIP average among the 30 teams through May 28.
And with the Cardinals defenders chasing down fly balls and line drives and scooping up ground balls at an elevated rate, the STL pitchers could overcome their poor strikeout rate as a team.
That’s a big reason why, through May 28, the Cardinals were 11th in the majors with a 3.71 team ERA. Their starters ranked 10th with a 3.69 ERA, and the relievers were in the same range with a 3.75 ERA that ranked 13th. All things considered, that was really good.
But a key underlying factor hinted at trouble. Through their first 56 games the team’s overall strikeout rate (20%) ranked 27th in the majors. But with opposing hitters frequently depositing baseballs into the gloves of the Cards fielders, the puny strikeout rate didn’t matter much.
That’s changed.
That’s because the batted-ball luck changed.
Through Tuesday, the Cardinals had played just 11 games since May 30. It’s a small sample, and the trend can change again. But over the 11 games the Cardinals were 4-7, pending Wednesday’s outcome against the Blue Jays.
For what it’s worth, the batting average on balls in play against STL pitching since May 30 is a preposterous .340. That’s the highest BIP average against a major-league pitching staff since May 30. Over that time, the BIP average against Cards starters is .327 (6th highest) and the relievers have been stung by a .361 balls-in-play average that’s the second highest against an MLB bullpen.
And yes, we can see the consequences.
Here’s the breakdown from May 30 through June 11, and I’ll simply show you where the Cardinals rank among the 30 pitching staffs over their past 11 games …
Starting pitching: 5.16 ERA, 20th.
Relievers: 5.68 ERA, 28th.
Overall: 5.36 ERA, 25th.
No wonder. Because the St. Louis-pitching strikeout rate since May 30 is comically impotent.
The entire collection of St. Louis arms collectively have a 16.6 percent strikeout rate that’s 30th (last) in the majors since May 30. Their starters (16%) rank 29th, and their relievers (17.2%) are 30th. It’s remarkable. At a time of increased pitch velocity and huge strikeout totals it’s bizarre to see a major-league staff striking out only 16 percent of batters faced – even if it’s just an 11-game stretch. But that’s the thing; this isn’t about a small period of time.
The Cards’ overall strikeout rate for the season – 19.4% – is the worst in MLB. And that’s why the contact rate against STL pitchers is third-highest in the majors this season. And you probably won’t be surprised when I tell you that the Cards have the third-highest percentage of pitches put in play.
For much of the current season, the Cardinals were converting around 71, 72 percent of the balls in play into outs. And that’s good! But because of the recent, detrimental turn in batted-ball luck, the Cards now rank 17th in the majors with a defensive efficiency of 69.8 percent.
Their defense hasn’t been as good lately, and the Cardinals are now tied for 15th overall with eight defensive runs saved.
And because the defense hasn’t been getting to as many balls and converting them into outs.
Some of this is also attributable to lousy luck. Here’s what I mean: since May 30, Cardinals pitchers have allowed the National League’ second-highest batting average (.294) on soft-contact balls in play. That’s unusually high.
Over that time, no NL pitching staff has been dinged for a higher soft-contact batting average than .238. So what’s been happening to the Redbird pitchers lately isn’t rotten luck; it’s severe.
This also tells us that their luck will change. Because if the Cardinal pitchers have been extremely unlucky as of late – well, they were extremely lucky over their first 50 games – with a .147 batting average against them on soft contact.
Ground balls offer other evidence. In their first 56 games opponents had a .221 average when hitting a grounder against the Cardinals – the fifth-lowest in the majors. But since May 30 the STL pitchers have yielded a .303 average on grounders – the third highest in the majors over that time.
This is what can occur when your pitchers have weak strikeout punch and a low whiff-swing rate. They lose control of the outcome. The batted balls will find holes in the defense instead of the gloves. Two or three weeks of below-standard defense will lead to repercussions.
Sonny Gray’s pitching profile can teach us something. This season Gray has a 26.7 percent strikeout rate that puts him with Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes for 10th best among National League starters. It’s no coincidence to see Gray with a 3.35 ERA that’s the best among Redbird starting pitching.
Since May 30, Gray has a 28.8% strikeout in two starts and hasn’t allowed a run. The other five St. Louis starters used over that time – Matthew Liberatore, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy – have a combined strikeout rate of 13 percent. THIRTEEN PERCENT!
Fedde has gotten away with the low strikeout total in his last two starts, crafting a 1.59 ERA in 11 and ⅓ innings. And one reason for this is the very low (.235) batting average against him on balls in play.
Mikolas, Pallante, Liberatore and McGreevy weren’t so fortunate. The four had a combined 12.5 strikeout rate in their last seven seven starts – and were blasted for 33 earned runs in 36 and ⅓ innings for an 8.17 ERA. Lots and lots of balls in play can equal lots and lots of trouble.
The STL pitching hasn’t been great, so I’m not trying to make excuses for their guys. But if they’re incapable of having a level of strikeout authority that at least gives them some control of the outcome, the only thing I can do here is wish them the best of luck.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.