The Cardinals suffered a horrible loss Tuesday, barfing up a five-run lead in losing 10-7 to the Royals before thousands and thousands of empty seats at Busch Stadium.
Kansas City won this one on Jan Stenerud’s field goal.
Actually, Kansas City won this one by butchering Andre Pallante and a couple of his pitching friends.
Your Redbirds haven’t exactly crashed to earth, but they’re dealing with the unavoidable gravity that’s always a significant part of a 162-game season.
No team – be it the Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Phillies or Dodgers – can happily float above the industry mediocrity and debris and cruise through uninterrupted periods of winning baseball.
And so it goes. After flying to 16 wins in 21 games to become relevant, the Cardinals have leveled off to 7-7 over their past 14.
After trailing the first-place Cubs by only one game in the NL Central on May 19, the Cards are five games in arrears to That Team Up North.
The St. Louis postseason probabilities have taken a hit; FanGraphs gives the Cards a 13.2 percent chance of winning the division and a 34.3 shot at qualifying for the playoffs.
These dramatic fluctuations are normal. Let’s look at the seven teams that had a higher winning percentage than St. Louis through Tuesday night’s action. And I’ll throw in an eighth team that has the same record as the Cardinals.
The Tigers (40-22) have the best record in the majors but lost series to the Rangers and Brewers. Motown’s team lost their first three games of the season, had another three-game losing streak in May, and have had three separate pockets of two consecutive losses.
The Cubs (38-22) started out 2-4 and lost seven of 12 games during a stall that ended May 9.
The Yankees (37-22) lost a series to the lowly Orioles, dropped four of six games in an April slowdown, and lost three in a row in early May. Their $289 payroll did not make the Yanks infallible.
The Mets (37-22) lost four of the first six games in May, and had a 1-5 skid later in the month. The team’s $328 million payroll could not prevent slumps.
The Phillies (37-23) lost two series to St. Louis, split six games with the A’s, and got swept in a three-game series vs. the Brewers. They had a five-game losing streak that began April 21, and go into Wednesday with a 1-5 record in their previous six games.
The Dodgers (37-24) went 3-6 in one May phase, and have endured a pair of three-game losing streaks and an 0-4 fall. See, this can even happen to a team with a $339 million payroll.
The Padres (35-24) had a 2-7 skid in April and lost 10 of 14 games in a flop that began May 6. The Padres are 12-17 for a .413 winning percentage since April 18.
The Astros (33-27) are tied with the Cardinals (33-27) for the eighth-best record in the majors. Houston was two games below .500 on April 17, dropped a series to the White Sox, and had stretches of 1-4 and 1-3 during May.
The Cardinals (33-27) were 10-15 through their 25 games, got as hot as a cup of overpriced drive-thru coffee, but have lost three of their last four games. And they’re 3-4 in their previous competitions.
A cooling phase for the Cardinals was inevitable. In a busy June, the key will be limiting the length of the downturn and bounce back as soon as possible. That starts by winning the next two games from Kansas City in advance of the home weekend series with the Dodgers.
TRACKING NOLAN GORMAN: He’s making progress, and Tuesday’s two-run homer in the second inning was evidence of that. In his last nine games, Gorman has a .292 average, .364 onbase percentage and .500 slug. His slug over his last 11 games is .414. The improved plate discipline is leading to some results, but Gorman has to put up good numbers on a consistent basis.
Gorman has been a more disciplined hitter this season, and the numbers are conclusive on this. I’ll list 2024 numbers on the left, and 2025 numbers on the right to show you what I’m referring to:
Strikeout percentage: 37.6% … 27.7%
Chase rate: 30.3% … 25%
Strike-zone contact rate: 70.7% … 81.2%
Whiff-swing rate: 38.7% … 29%
Walk rate: 8.5% … 12.5%
If Gorman can avoid relapsing into poor plate-discipline habits, better results are inevitable. He’ll be playing more, and this is a big month for him.
VICTOR SCOTT II: In his last 19 games the Cards center fielder has a .161 average, .254 onbase percentage and a .196 slug for a .450 OPS. He has a 31 percent strikeout rate over this time. What are the issues?
1. Scott is chasing too many pitches out of the strike zone. Over the last 19 games, he’s 1 for 14 with a 47.6 percent strikeout rate when hacking at non-strike pitches. That includes a whiff-swing rate of 60%.
2. Pitchers are keeping Scott off-balance with a wide variety of pitches. And they aren’t using one pitch more often than the others in a way that matters. They’re mixing it up … and evidently mixing Scott up.
Four-seam fastball: 2 for 8, three strikeouts
Sinker: 2 for 9, two strikeouts
Slider: 2 for 10, four strikeouts
Changeup: 1 for 7, three strikeouts
Sweeper: 1 for 7, three strikeouts
Curve: 0 for 5, one strikeout
Cutter: 0 for 2, one strikeout
Splitter: 0 for 2, one strikeout
Knuckle-curve: 1 for 3
3. Scott isn’t hitting the ball hard. Over his last 19 games, Scott has an average exit velocity of just 83.4 mph and a poor hard-hit rate of 20%. Of the 35 pitches he’s put in play, 71.4 percent have been ground balls, pop ups, or routine fly balls.
4. Scott isn’t controlling counts. In his last 19 games, Scott has connected and put the ball in play only five times when he’s ahead in the count and has an advantage. But he’s connected and put the ball in play 24 times when behind in the count – when the pitcher had the advantage. And he’s 3 for 32 on two-strike counts over this time.
The exciting Scott is still very early in his big-league career, and it’s no surprise to see pitchers finding some holes in his swing – or using certain pitch sequences to fluster him. It’s all part of the education.
THE PALLANTE PROBLEM: Pallante, the Cards starting pitcher, overcame early trouble and retired 13 consecutive Royals. At that point the Cardinals’ TV broadcasters took a break from The Chuckle Hut comedy routine to nominate Pallante for a Cy Young Award. No, they didn’t really do that. Just seemed like it. And I was trying to offer some Magooby’s Joke House material of my own. It’s a comedy joint near Baltimore.
Anyway, the Royals went nuts after that. After Pallante retired the first hitter in the top of the fifth, KC pelted Pallante with a home run and four consecutive singles. He was done. Steven Matz and Kyle Leahy couldn’t stop the bashing, and the Royals stomped the STL pitchers for eight runs in the fifth and sixth innings. Ballgame.
In his last nine starts Pallante has been blasted for a 5.80 ERA, .289 average and a .498 slugging percentage by grateful opponents.
Right-handed batters are tearing into Pallante’s offerings. During this gradual nine-start meltdown, right-swinging hitters have busted Pallante for a .337 average, .393 onbase percentage and .592 slug. Ouch.
Just using the stats generated by righty bats against Pallante since April 17, they’ve put up 19 earned runs in 22 and ⅓ innings of at-bats. And they’ve averaged 2.4 home runs per nine innings. Painful.
What’s the problem? Poor swing-and-miss stuff, low strikeout rates, too many balls in play, and lots and lots of hard-hit balls that defy defensive intervention. Basically, Pallante is throwing batting practice to right-handed hitters.
Right-handed hitters have feasted on one particular Pallante pitch over his last nine outings.
Here’s the Pallante four-seam fastball since April 17 when thrown to RH batters: 14 hits in 32 at-bats (.438), three home runs and two doubles. An onbase rate of .471, with an .844 slug and a 59 percent hard-hit rate. RH hitters also have a .500 slugging percentage against Pallante on his slider since April 17.
THIS IS THE OTHER PROBLEM: If the Cardinals go with a six-man starting rotation to navigate an extremely busy June, Cards fans will be happy to see Michael McGreevy get his turn as a starting pitcher. But the six-man rotation would look like this way, and I’ll offer brief descriptions to characterize each moundsman:
Sonny Gray: Good. I can’t fuss too much, unless the home-run bug is biting him.
Matthew Liberatore: Very good. And no, I’m not freaking out because the Texas Rangers put some offense on him in his most recent start.
Erick Fedde: He’s OK. But the dude is all over the place. I’m generalizing here, but I don’t know what to expect from start to start.
Pallante: an all you care to eat happy meal for right-handed batters. He should be on the way to Memphis. I don’t know how you can fix a right-handed pitcher who gets bludgeoned when he serves a four-seam fastball to right-handed hitters.
Miles Mikolas: If the batted-ball luck turns on him, the center will not hold. Mikolas had a 2.08 ERA in an eight-start run from April 12 through May 23. And he also benefited – greatly – from a low batting average against him (.219) on balls in play. But I sincerely wish Miles well because the Cardinals need more Mikolas Magic and hope the luck won’t run out. Some of that luck expired in his start at Baltimore last week; on a soggy day the Orioles had nine hits and four runs in four innings. And the batting average on balls in play against Mikolas in that start was .500.
McGreevy: In three starts and one relief appearance in the majors, the righthander has 1.57 ERA in 27 and ⅔ innings. In his last five starts for Triple A Memphis, McGreevy had a 1.37 ERA and 30.5 percent strikeout rate. I am curious to see how MLB hitters will fare against McGreevy after they have more scouting-report information to work with.
I hope the Cardinals give him a full opportunity instead of doing the yo-yo routine that held back Liberatore and was a factor in Zack Thompson’s injury issues.
How anyone could choose Pallante over McGreevy at this time is incomprehensible to me – but I’m just a dumb sportswriter. In his brief time in the majors McGreevy has held right-handed batters to a .167 average and .250 slug. This season at Memphis righty hitters have a .233 average and .618 OPS against him.
St. Louis starters have a 3.80 ERA this season, ranking 15th among the 30 teams. The overall performance has been solid, but any concern over the team’s starting-pitching depth is understandable. Over the last 14 games, Cards starters have a 4.12 ERA and are ranked 23rd in Win Probability Added. But their collective Fielding Independent ERA (3.50) shows they’ve had some bad luck.
Final thought: If the Cardinals want to put Steven Matz back in the rotation, he’ll need time to stretch out and build up innings. And that would likely lead to more work for the bullpen. Is that a good idea?
WHERE IS ANDRE GRANILLO? I mentioned this in my video today, but the right-handed reliever has a 1.35 ERA and a 40 percent strikeout rate in 26.2 innings this season. In his last five relief appearances, Granillo has allowed one hit, one earned run, and struck out 51.5 of batters faced in 9 and ⅔ innings. If he’s hurt and unable to pitch, I missed the news. Otherwise, why are we seeing Roddery Munoz up here so often when Granillo is wiping out Triple A hitters at a staggering rate?
CRAZY STATS: In their last three losses – two to Texas and one to Kansas City – Cardinals pitchers were bombarded for 29 runs overall (five unearned) for an 8.64 ERA. In their two victories, opponents .346 overall, .455 with runners in scoring position, had 16 two-out runs batted in, and finessed 13 two-strike hits.
In STL’s seven losses since May 18, their relievers have been slapped for a 6.95 ERA – and the starters (5.83) haven’t been much better. But again, this only applies to the seven losses.
The other disturbing part of getting smacked around by the Rangers and Royals is each team’s low-caliber offense. Even with the barrage of runs against the Cardinals, Texas and Kansas City hitters rank in the bottom five in the majors in runs, slugging, onbase percentage and OPS.
KYLE LEAHY: The righty reliever has yielded 11 hits, four walks, and six earned runs in 5.0 innings over his last six appearances. And he’s struck out only 3 of 30 hitters faced (10%). Leahy had a 32.4 percent strikeout rate in his first eight relief gigs of the season – but that rate has fallen to 13.4% over his last 18 appearances.
STEVEN MATZ: He has a 6.75 ERA in his last six relief assignments, with hitters zinging him for 12 hits in eight innings.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.