The Cardinals are home for a Monday rest stop before opening a three-team, nine-game homestand against the Royals, Dodgers and Blue Jays. It’s the opening segment of a grinding and demanding schedule that puts them in action for 32 games over the next 34 days.
This potentially hazardous stretch could become even more treacherous if bad weather leads to a doubleheader or two. It will be a wild and tempestuous ride from June 3 through July 6, so make sure to secure all shoulder harnesses, lap bars and other protective devices to ensure your safety.
I’ll take a closer look at the impending 32-game gauntlet in Tuesday’s edition of The Redbird Review. For today, I want to get loose by exploring a few areas of this team that require firming up to give the Cardinals a chance to do well over the next four weeks and five days.
CONCERNS OVER THE OFFENSE? In their last 14 games (record: 8-6) the Cardinals have averaged only 3.6 runs. In a stretch that began May 17, the Redbirds have subpar numbers in batting average (.236), onbase percentage (.295), slugging pct. (.349) and OPS (.644.) During the 14 games the Cardinals have hit only nine homers, cranking a HR every 51 at-bats. That’s bad.
The number of low-scoring games is alarming. Over the past 14 games, the Cardinals scored two runs or fewer in seven games (2-5 record) and had one or no runs five times (1-4 record.) This can’t continue.
TRENDING DOWN: More about the offense. In their first 45 games, the Cardinals averaged 4.9 runs. As I mentioned already, that average is 3.6 runs per game since May 17.
From the start of the season on March 27 through the end of April, the Cardinals batted .260, posted a .333 onbase percentage, slugged .405, and generated a .738 OPS. Since the start of May, the batting average has dropped five points, which is no big deal. But the onbase percentage has fallen 11 points since the close of April, and the slugging rate has plummeted 23 points. That adds up to a 34-point decrease in OPS since May 1.
The team’s performance when hitting with runners in scoring position has leveled off since the end of April – but is still respectable.
Bottom line: the Cardinals were nine percent above league average offensively at the end of April. Since then, the Cards offense has stalled, and is now one percent below league average offensively since the start of May.
I’ll look at some of the slumping hitters later on in The Review.
THE LAPSE ON DEFENSE: By their high standards, the Cardinals were off form during their 3-3 road trip to Maryland and Texas.
St. Louis fielders were charged with seven errors in the six games, costing the team six unearned runs. They committed errors in five of the six games. Their only clean, error-free game was Saturday’s 2-0 win over the Rangers.
Unless the Cardinals clean up the defense and get back to normal, the trend will be harmful to a STL pitching staff that ranks 29th among the 30 teams with an average of 7.35 strikeouts per nine innings.
THE BULLPEN: There’s been a shift, a big change. From April 25 through May 18, the Cardinals had the best bullpen ERA in the majors at 2.28 in 71 innings. But since May 19, the St. Louis bullpen ERA ranks 26th in the majors at 5.15. In fairness, a lot of that damage came over the weekend in Arlington. In the two losses to the Rangers, the Redbird relievers were blistered for 12 runs (10 earned) in only five innings. Perhaps a mulligan is in order, but the Cardinals can’t afford to have a vulnerable bullpen. That’s how close games get away.
THE ROTATION: For the most part, everything is solid. But I’m monitoring Andre Pallante, who has a 4.96 ERA and a big slugging percentage against him in his last eight starts. And right handed batters have been clobbering him. Erick Fedde has fluctuated between really sharp and really bad. And you never know when Miles Mikolas will run out of lucky charms.
BIRD BYTES
1. In his last five relief appearances, Kyle Leahy has a 10.38 ERA and has struck out only two of 25 batters faced, or 8 percent. In his last 10 games, Leahy’s strikeout rate is 10.4 percent. That’s notable because Leahy had a 29.6 percent strikeout rate in his first 13 appearances of the season. The strikeout punch is weakening.
2. Ivan Herrera is going through a little downturn. In his last 10 games, Herrera is 5 for 33 (.152) with a .475 OPS, 25 percent strikeout rate and one extra-base hit (a double.) But he continues to draw a decent number of walks. But as I’ll tell you later in the column, Herrera has been among the Cards’ best hitters since returning from the IL on May 9.
3. Victor Scott II is 2 for 24 (.083) with 11 strikeouts in his last eight games. For the season, this left-handed batter has a .282 average and .748 OPS vs. righty pitching but is hitting only .192 with a .514 OPS in 62 plate appearances vs. lefties.
4. At the end of April, Cards catcher Pedro Pages had a .247 batting average, .403 slug and a .665 OPS. Not great, but certainly acceptable for a good defensive catcher. But since the start of May, Pages is batting .164 with a .295 slug, .534 OPS, and a 28.3 percent strikeout rate.
5. Using park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) as our stat, here are the Cards hitters that have a below-average hitting performance since May 1:
* Lars Nootbaar, 12 percent below league average offensively.
* Victor Scott, 23 percent below league average.
* Jordan Walker, 25 percent below league average.
* Nolan Arenado, 35 percent below league average.
* Pedro Pages, 48 percent below league average.
* Nolan Gorman, 59 percent below league average.
Follow-up notes: Despite his high strikeout total, Walker had a .333 average, .528 slug and 11 RBIs in his last 13 games before being sidelined by a sore wrist … in his last 34 games, Arenado hit .195 with a .243 OBP, .331 slug and a .574 OPS. He had four home runs and 17 RBIs over that time … in his last 13 games Nootbaar hit .212 with a .263 OBP and .327 slug for a .590 OPS.
6. OK, now let’s go the other way. Here are the best St. Louis hitters since May 1:
* Alec Burleson, 43 percent above league average offensively.
* Ivan Herrera, 41 percent above league average.
* Brendan Donovan, 32 percent above league average.
* Masyn Winn, 23 percent above league average.
* Willson Contreras, 20 percent above league average.
BONUS NOTE ON CONTRERAS: After a cold start, here’s what he’s done in the past 44 games: .280 average, .360 OBP, .440 slug, .800 OPS, eight doubles, six homers.
Since April 9, Contreras leads the Cardinals in RBIs, is tied for first in homers, and ranks second among his teammates in onbase percentage, slugging, and OPS.
And over the same period of time Contreras has a .333 average and .921 OPS with runners in scoring position.
One of his best qualities as a batter is the way Contreras hits to all fields.
This season Contreras has 17 hits and a .298 average when he pulls pitches, 17 hits and a .293 average when hitting straightaway to center, and 16 hits and a .444 average when going to the opposite field. That’s an awesome profile.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.