Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (32-24) at Texas Rangers (27-30)
Time: 7:05pm CT Friday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network, Matrix Midwest, KMOV-TV
Probable pitchers: Matthew Liberatore (3-3, 2.73 ERA) vs Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.17 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cardinals -142, Rangers +120
Total: 8.5 (over -110, under -110)
Red-Hot Cardinals Head To Texas
The St. Louis Cardinals are a scorching 18-7 in the month of May, and they will close out the month with a weekend series starting tonight in Texas against the Rangers.
The Redbirds continue to pile up series wins by going 8-1-1 in their last ten series, while the Rangers are floundering in losing eight of their last ten games.
Libby Time
Tonight’s starter Matthew Liberatore is on a run of eight consecutive outings allowing 2 runs or less. The southpaw should be able to find success against a Texas team that ranks 28th in MLB with just 3.25 runs per game.
The Rangers have been in a season-long funk offensively, as they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 61% of their games. The Cardinals meanwhile have scored 3 runs or less in just 34% of their games. If the Redbirds can put up at least 4 runs tonight, that should be enough to get the win.
Hope For Leiter Tonight
The Rangers have yet to officially announce a starting pitcher for tonight’s game, but it is expected to be Jack Leiter with it being his turn in the rotation. The right-hander has gotten good results over his last three starts in particular with just 6 earned runs allowed in 18 innings (3.00 ERA), although two of those outings were against the Rockies and White Sox.
However, I find Leiter to be a big-time regression candidate. He has a 4.89 xERA, 4.48 FIP, and 5.06 xFIP - all significantly higher than his season ERA of 4.17. Leiter also permits way too many free passes, as he’s walked 20 batters in his last 31 innings.
My Pick
I really like the Cardinals in this game. Liberatore has been a run-prevention machine, and I think Leiter is due to get blown up sooner than later - especially against a team like the Cards that excels in not making outs. They rank 5th in MLB with a .333 on-base percentage.
There are lots of options to take here - it’s just a matter of choosing the right one.
I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from taking the Cardinals on the moneyline at -142, but that’s a little more juice than I typically like to lay.
I think there’s a decent chance the Cards win comfortably and cover the -1.5 run line, but they have surprisingly covered the run line just once in Liberatore’s ten starts this season.
I also like Liberatore under 2.5 earned runs allowed at what I think is a bargain price of -115, and I’m also tempted by the Rangers’ team total of under 3.5 at +100.
I’ve ultimately landed on a Same Game Parlay to take a shot at a nice plus money win - the Cardinals to win the game and Liberatore to allow under 2.5 earned runs. I really hope we see Leiter tonight, and I expect Liberatore to make it nine starts in a row of allowing 2 earned runs or less.
Pick: Same Game Parlay priced at +134 on DraftKings - Cardinals on the moneyline AND Matthew Liberatore under 2.5 earned runs allowed (bet to +120)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer