Here’s a common question these days: are the Cardinals contenders for a playoff spot? Well, sure. Entering Tuesday, the Redbirds trailed the first-place Cubs in the NL Central and were only one game away from the league’s third wild-card spot.
There’s a more relevant question.
Can the Cardinals stay in contention? What will the standings look like by the end of June? I don’t know. But to stay in the hunt, the Cardinals need some notable players to lead the way by doing more and performing at a higher level – if, indeed, that’s possible.
Let’s take a look, shall we?
LARS NOOTBAAR: The Cardinals have a problem here. As their leadoff man, the Redbirds need Noot to extend at-bats, drive up pitch counts, reach base at a high rate to create RBI opportunities, and hit for solid power.
Nootbaar delivered on that assignment during the first three-plus weeks of the season but has faded over time. So far in May (through Monday), Nootbaar has hit .202 with a poor .267 onbase percentage and .330 slug. Per wRC+, he’s performed 33 percent below average offensively in May. His walk rate – an excellent 17.8 percent during the first month – has declined to 6.9% in May. His more aggressive approach isn’t going smoothly.
How important is Nootbaar’s skill for getting on base?
I have answers.
– This season when Nootbaar reaches base at least twice in a game, the Cardinals are 20-9. They’ve scored an average of 7.1 runs in the 20 wins – and have an average of 5.7 runs overall in the 29 contests.
– When Nootbaar reaches base one time in a game, the Cardinals are 25-17 and have scored an average of 5.1 runs per game.
– When Nootbaar fails to reach base in a game, the Cardinals are 4-6 and have averaged only 3.6 runs.
As we can see, Noot’s onbase success is essential to his team’s success offensively.
NOLAN ARENADO: The dude plays outstanding defense at third base, competes with maximum intensity, risks injury by going all-out for foul balls, and is greatly respected by his teammates.
Now, if only Arenado could generate more offense. That’s a tough ask because he’s 34 years old and his numbers have been falling steadily since the start of the 2023 season. In his last 28 games through Sunday, Arenado has batted .200 with a .246 OBP and a .327 slug with three homers. He’s had some big hits, yes, but has batted only .148 this month when hitting with runners in scoring position.
Arenado’s move to the No. 6 spot in the lineup had an instant payoff when he clubbed a two-run homer off Detroit ace Tarik Skubal. But overall he’s 3 for 22 (.136) when batting sixth after the switch; at least Nado has made the most of it by driving in seven runs in those 22 ABs. I’m rooting for this guy.
JORDAN WALKER & NOLAN GORMAN: So far the Cardinals have invested 264 plate appearances in the young-gun hitters, hoping to see some major progress along the way.
Gorman’s plate discipline is much improved; so far he has career lows (as in best) for strikeout rate, walk rate, chase rate, and swing-and-miss rate. Gorman’s firm control of the strike zone should lead to positive results, but we’re still waiting. And he hasn't played all that much, ranking 10th on the team with 101 plate appearances. Gorman hit his only home run of the season on March 30; since that game his slugging percentage is a faint .222.
Walker has put something together over his last 11 games, batting .320 with a .500 slugging percentage, two doubles, a homer and eight RBIs through Monday. He cashed in for some huge hits during the weekend sweep of Arizona. That said, JW's strikeout rate over the last 11 games is 35 percent ... and so the challenge continues.
If we combine the Gorman-Walker stats on the season through Monday, this is what we come up with:
– 264 plate appearances
– 235 at-bats
– .200 batting average
– .272 onbase percentage
– .289 slugging percentage
– .561 OPS
– 4 homers
– 29 RBIs
– 30.3% strikeout rate
– 8.7% walk rate
This offense can’t max out with two dormant pieces in the lineup.
SONNY GRAY: Much respect to the veteran righthander; obviously he’s a good starting pitcher. But the Cardinals are paying Gray $25 million this season to be an ace, and he falls short of that distinction. I say that for three reasons (1) His 4.07 ERA on the season, (2) his 4.62 ERA in his last seven starts, and a homers-allowed rate that ranks 55th among 76 innings-qualified MLB starters.
ERICK FEDDE: I won’t go with a lot of numbers here. I just don’t know what to expect from him each time he starts a game. He fluctuates. His fielding independent ERA (FIP) is revealing: 4.42. But his expected FIP ERA (4.91) is even more telling. He’s made several brilliant starts but we’d like to see more consistency.
ANDRE PALLANTE: In seven starts since April 17, Pallante has been hammered for a 4.99 ERA, a .287 average and a .484 slugging percentage. And this righthander’s biggest weakness is exposed in his matchups against RH batters. Over his last seven starts righty hitters have blasted Pallante for a .320 average, .386 onbase percentage and .547 slug. They’ve popped an average of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. How long can we expect this to continue before Michael McGreevy receives a legit opportunity in a big-league rotation? Haven’t the Cardinals learned anything after watching Matthew Liberatore thrive by finally getting a full look as a big-league starter?
KYLE LEAHY: This righty reliever has been so terrific this season I feel a little guilty for even mentioning him on this list. But my reasons for including Leahy are pretty simple. His ERA has been rising, which actually was expected after he had a 1.72 ERA in his first 13 relief appearances of the season. The Leahy ERA over his last 10 relief assignments is 2.63, and there’s nothing wrong with that. But this next part has my attention:
Leahy strikeout rate in his first 13 appearances: 29.6%
Leahy strikeout rate in his last 10 appearances: 10.7%
Since April 25 Leahy has faced 27 right-handed batters without getting a strikeout.
Something has changed here. Leahy has become more hittable, and it’s something to monitor over the next few weeks. Manager Oli Marmol has used Leahy for more than an inning in 10 of his 23 relief appearances, and the heavy workload could have taken something out of him.
RYAN HELSLEY: Look, I’m not trying to depict the valuable closer as a liability. But Helsley isn’t as dominant in 2025 after a career-best 2024. He isn’t close to matching his 2024 form.
The 2025 version of Helsley is getting fewer whiff-swings, his strikeout rate is down for the third consecutive season, his walk rate is way up to an alarming 13.8 percent, and hitters have ripped him for the highest hard-hit rate (45%) of his career.
After allowing an average of 9.9 hits-and-walks 9 innings last season, Helsley has given up 13.5 hits/walks per 9 innings this season. After pitching to a 2.04 ERA 2.41 fielding independent (FIP) ERA in 2024, his 2025 ERA is 3.50 with a 4.40 FIP.
Another concern for this hard-throwing righthander is his vulnerability against right-handed batters so far in 2025. They’ve been on Helsley for a .278 average, .386 on-base percentage and .500 slug.
How bad is that? Tallying all the damage, right-handed batters have walloped him for a 5.59 ERA and 6.07 FIP. Last season Helsley had a 1.77 ERA and 2.19 FIP against RH batters. That’s an immense difference.
Look at Helsley’s annual strikeout rate against right-handed hitters over the last four seasons:
2022: 44.6 percent
2023: 37.5%
2024: 29.4%
2025: 20.5%
A lack of activity is a glaring factor – Helsley isn’t used often enough and that’s impacted his sharpness – but Helsley isn’t the same guy. And the Cardinals need Helsley to regain his form if they have any shot at seriously contending for a postseason spot.
Last season Helsley ranked tied for third among MLB relievers with 2.3 WAR and was fourth in Win Probability Added. This season he’s at the replacement level in WAR (0.0) and ranks 20th in WPA.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.