Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (28-23) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (26-25)
Time: 1:15pm CT Saturday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Matthew Liberatore (3-3, 2.92 ERA) vs Merrill Kelly (5-2, 3.26 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cardinals -125, Diamondbacks +105
Total: 7.5 (over -108, under -112)
Cards Go For Two In A Row
The St. Louis Cardinals go for the series win when they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon at Busch Stadium.
The Redbirds took the series opener last night 4-3, and they’ll send Matthew Liberatore to the mound today against Merrill Kelly in what’s shaping up as a pitchers duel.
Libby On A Roll
Liberatore has been dynamite in his first full season as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. The left-hander has earned every bit of his 2.92 ERA with a 2.90 xERA and 2.29 FIP. He has a 47-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has only permitted 2 home runs all season.
Liberatore is on a run of seven consecutive starts allowing 2 earned runs or less. He also leads all left-handers in the National League with a 1.03 WHIP.
Kelly Crushing It As Well
Kelly has also been fantastic this season - in particular of late. Over his last two starts, the right-hander has pitched 14 innings and given up only 1 run with 19 strikeouts.
For the season, Kelly has allowed 2 earned runs or less in eight of his ten starts.
My Pick
This game screams first five under. We have two starters that have been pitching lights-out, and it would be a surprise if either one of them gives up more than 2 earned runs. It’s also a cool day in St. Louis, and it looks like we should avoid a rain delay.
The first five under 4.5 has been bet pretty hard this morning, as the odds have moved up to -145 on DraftKings. That’s a little too high for me to recommend betting that as a standalone. I would want it to be -130 or lower.
But one strategy I like to use in a situation like this is combine it with another aspect of the game that is very likely to hit in order to make the odds more palatable. A market I often like to turn to in baseball in these cases is both teams to score at least one run in the game. These are two good offenses, so it’s very unlikely either team gets shut out.
Combine the under 4.5 in the first five innings with both teams to score in the game, and that brings your odds down to -105. I’m good to roll with that.
Pick: Same Game Parlay priced at -105 on DraftKings - Under 4.5 in the first five innings AND Both teams to score 1+ runs in the game (bet to -110)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer