I hope that Cardinals fans are smiling, because their favorite team continues to pass the tests placed before them.
The latest was their 7-2 road record in games at Washington, Philadelphia and Kansas City. Once upon a time this season, the Redbirds were 2-12 in road games, but they’ve turned the trend around by winning nine of their last 12 games away from Busch Stadium.
There was a lot to like about the 7-2 road tour.
1. Ivan Herrera’s return. He came off the Injured List to join the travel squad for the three-city, 10-day adventure. Used mostly at designated hitter, Herrera started eight of the nine games and batted .464 with a home run, four doubles, and seven RBIs. His OPS was a savage 1.229. Herrera immediately became the most impactful hitter in the St. Louis lineup.
Before Herrera was reactivated on May 9, the St. Louis designated hitters had put up a .197 batting average, four doubles, one homer and only four RBIs in 132 at-bats. Herrera put up a .435 average with four doubles, one home run and seven RBIs in 23 at-bats. That’s hysterical!
2. Alec Burleson is locked in. He sat out most of the time against left-handed pitchers, but in the four games in which he had at least one at-bat, Burly batted .462 with a 1.427 OPs, two home runs and five RBIs. Burleson is a superb hitter when he goes hunting in the strike zone instead of straying to chase lousy pitches. During his current streak of ripping that began April 22, Burleson has a .361 average, .722 slugging percentage, four homers, a 62 percent hard-hit rate and a 17.6% barrel rate when swinging and connecting on strikes. I’ll have more on the big guy later in this column.
3. The Cardinals pitching staff chiseled diamonds. Over the nine games, St. Louis pitchers had a 2.16 ERA, and there was nothing to complain about. The starters had a 2.44 ERA, the bullpen had a 1.52 ERA, and good pitching put the Cards in position to win every game. Sonny had one start and it was a bad one. But otherwise we watched Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore combine for a 1.91 ERA in 51 and ⅔ innings. Mikolas continues to delight the audience as a surprise performer, twirling a 2.17 ERA in his last seven starts.
4. The St. Louis defense is very special. Saturday’s 1-0 victory at Kansas City was a classic. How do you win a game when the offense scored just one run, mustered only two hits, and never had an at-bat with a runner in scoring position?
Well you get six shutout innings from Mikolas, put the game in the hands of the bullpen (Kyle Leahy, JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley) and let the defense take care of the rest. The plays made in this game by center fielder Victor Scott II, shortstop Masyn Winn, second baseman Brendan Donovan were amazing. And over at first base, Willson Contreras continues to show good range, scoop throws in the dirt, and stretch a long way to get outs by keeping his foot on the base while snatching errant throws.
I don’t remember the last time I saw a Cardinals defense make so many fantastic plays in one game. The St. Louis defense ranks No. 1 in the majors in Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value, second in the Fielding Bible plus-minus rating, and fifth in defensive runs saved.
5. The 7-2 road record extended a spectacular season turnaround. The Cardinals have the NL’s best record (16-6) since April 25, the best record in the majors (14-4) since April 30, the best record in the NL (12-4) in the month of May – and are 12-2 since May 4. After trailing the first-place Cubs by 6 and ½ games on May 3, the Cardinals had cut their rival’s lead to two games when it was time to come home.
After losing three of their first four series of the season, the Cardinals are 8-2-1 in the ensuing 11 series. And their record in the 11 series – a stretch that began April 10 is 21-14 (.600). That mark is tied for second with the Mets in the NL. And the 21-14 is better than the records turned in by the Cubs (19-13), Dodgers (19-14), Phillies (20-15), Giants (19-16), Padres (17-15), Diamondbacks (18-16) and Brewers (15-20) since April 10.
DID YOU KNOW? Over the last month of baseball, which encompasses the last 30 games played by each MLB team, the Cardinals have an 18-12 record that matches the Dodgers, Yankees and Cubs – and is better than that of the Padres, Diamondbacks, Astros and Giants.
THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Nolan Arenado’s offensive production is plummeting. On April 15, the Cards third baseman peaked with a .508 slugging percentage and .908 OPS. But in 27 games since then, Arenado has a .210 batting average, .276 onbase percentage and a .305 slugging percentage for a .581 OPS. Those numbers are way, way below average. Also: Arenado has 6 hits in 30 at-bats (.200) with runners in scoring position over the last 27 games. Which has fans asking: should Ivan Herrera move into the No. 4 spot in Marmol’s lineup?
Matthew Liberatore is one of the best surprises of the major-league season. In his last six starts that weren’t cut short by a lengthy rain delay, Liberatore has a 1.70 ERA and hasn’t been popped for a homer in 37 innings. During that time the tall lefty has held opponents to a .213 batting average, .255 onbase rate, and .270 slugging percentage. And in these seven starts Liberatore faced right-handed batters 109 times and they managed a poor .200 batting average against him.
For the season, Liberatore has a fine 2.92 ERA. But among innings-qualifying starting pitchers, Libby ranks 5th with a 2.31 fielding independent ERA, is 5th for the lowest home-run rate (0.34 per 9 innings), tied for 5th for lowest walk rate, is 6th in strikeout-walk rate, and sits at 8th with 1.7 fWAR.
The Cardinals offense is extreme. It’s been an excellent May overall, with the Redbirds rolling to the NL’s best record at 12-4. But the offense has been hit-or-miss. The Cards have scored three runs or fewer in seven of the 16 contests, averaging 1.7 runs in those games. But in their nine other games in May, the Cardinals have scored 66 runs for an average of 7.33 runs per competition.
For the season, St. Louis has scored no more than 1 run in 12 games – tied for the fifth most among major-league teams. But the Cardinals have also scored five or more runs in 23 games, which is tied for the fifth most by an MLB team this season.
Victor Scott II is in a brief downturn. Not a big deal, but in his last seven games Scott was 2 for 21 (.095) with seven strikeouts.
Nolan Gorman is the disappearing man. He’s had only 27 plate appearances in May. He started only two of the nine games on the just-completed road trip. I know the Cardinals faced seven left-handed starting pitchers during the nine games against the Nationals, Phillies and Royals.
And Gorman, who bats left, doesn’t see much action against lefty starters – with only 13 plate appearances vs. lefts this season.)
That said, 296 MLB hitters have more plate appearances than Gorman this month. That should tell us something. Gorman has lost lineup-priority status to fellow LH batter Alec Burleson.
And when Gorman has gone against right-handed pitchers this season he’s hit only .185 with a .308 slugging percentage vs. righties.
Gorman hit well in his first two games of the season. But in 87 plate appearances over his last 25 games Gorman has batted .141 with a .211 slug.
Gorman is being schooled in controlling the strike zone by first-year Cardinals hitting coach Brant Brown. And Gorman has made impressive progress in this crucial area. He’s chased pitches out of the strike zone at a career-best 20.3 percent. He also has career bests (so far) in restraining from chasing pitches out of the strike zone, overall contact rate, contact rate on strikes, and swinging strikes.
Not only is Gorman’s strikeout rate (27.5%) under 30 percent for the first time in a major-league season, he’s done an impressive job in accruing a career-best 14.3 percent walk rate.
Gorman’s plate discipline has obviously improved, but it hasn’t (yet) been converted into success at the plate. Now that Gorman isn’t playing much, does it make sense to put him at Triple A Memphis to get some at-bats? I don’t think the Cardinals are close to making that call, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Burleson has moved ahead of Gorman. They both bat from the left side and aren’t good in lefty vs. lefty matchups. So it comes down to this: which hitter is more consistent and dangerous against right-handed pitching? The answer is obvious. Burleson.
In 49 plate appearances against RH pitching since April 22, Burleson has walloped his way to a .340 batting average, .367 onbase percentage and a booming .617 slug. (For a .984 OPS.) And Burly is also tied for the team lead with four home runs over that time.
Burleson has a plus rating defensively at first base, and Marmol has used him in both corner outfield spots. But Burleson didn’t do much as a designated hitter, and Herrera has taken over the DH spot – which is obviously the correct move. And Herrera, who bats right, smashes right-handed pitchers with as much force as he batters lefties.
Burleson will get some starts at DH. He’s done a nice job at first base. He isn’t a smooth fielder in the outfield – but so far he’s just a tad below average out there. And It’s easy for a manager to live with that because Burly’s offense more than compensates for defensive shortcomings.
Burleson must play as long as he adds muscular impact to this offense. The Herrera-Burleson combination makes it more difficult for Gorman to find a regular spot in Mamrol’s lineup.
Brendan Donovan is justifying Oli Marmol’s decision to bat him 3rd. “Donny” is one of only eight MLB hitters to log at least 170 plate appearances in the No. 3 slot. He ranks first in batting average (.322), third in onbase rate (.385) and is slugging a solid .434. Per wRC+, his level of offense at the No. 3 lineup spot is 34 percent above league average – and that ranks fourth among the eight No. 3s on this list. The only three better are Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Manny Machado. But Donovan has another quality working in his favor: he’s only struck 9.9 percent of the time when batting third.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.