Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (20-19) at Washington Nationals (17-22)
Time: 3:05pm CT Saturday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Andre Pallante (2-2, 4.75 ERA) vs Trevor Williams (2-3, 5.86 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cardinals -115, Nationals -105
Total: 9 (over -115, under -105)
Lucky Seven For Cardinals?
The St. Louis Cardinals go for their seventh straight win when they face the Washington Nationals this afternoon.
The Redbirds’ 10-0 victory last night pulled them to within 2 games of the first place Chicago Cubs as we reach the quarter-pole mark of the season this weekend.
Cards Are A Base Hit Machine
The Cardinals had 11 hits in last night’s win to raise their team batting average to .262, which ranks second in MLB behind the Dodgers. The Birds also rank fifth in OBP and eighth in OPS.
Andre Pallante will be on the mound today looking to bounce back from a recent tough stretch. Over his last four starts covering 19.2 innings, the right-hander has given up 15 runs on 29 hits with 9 walks and only 8 strikeouts - that’s a 6.86 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.
Williams Getting Hit Hard
The Nationals counter with Trevor Williams this afternoon. The right-hander has yet to complete 6 innings in any of his seven starts this season, and he has allowed at least 5 hits in six of those seven outings.
Opponents have a .317 batting average against Williams this season, which bodes well for a Cardinals team that excels in getting base hits.
My Pick
I lean over in this game, but with the total set at 9, I feel that number is priced properly. So I’ll dig a little further to get to my pick.
The underlying numbers for Pallante are concerning. He has a career-high walk rate and hard hit allowed rate this season, and he has a career-low strikeout rate.
Even if Pallante pitches decently today (which is no sure thing), I expect Oli Marmol to be aggressive with his bullpen usage. Matthew Liberatore and Sonny Gray each pitched 7 innings in their respective starts on Tuesday and Wednesday, there was an off day on Thursday, and Erick Fedde pitched a complete game shutout on Friday - meaning the bullpen is very well-rested heading into today’s game.
So I’m going to take Pallante to record under 16.5 outs, meaning he pitches 5.1 innings or less. You can get that at -120 on DraftKings.
I’m going to combine that with Williams to allow at least 4 hits to bring my odds down to +110. Considering the data referenced above, I’d be stunned if the Cardinals don’t get at least that many hits against him.
Pick: Same Game Parlay priced at +110 on DraftKings - Andre Pallante under 16.5 outs recorded AND Trevor Williams 4+ hits allowed (bet to +100)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer