Well, take a look at those crazy Cardinals. After going up and crashing down and flying all over the place without a compass, they’ve settled into some successful baseball as of late, going 5-2 in their last seven games.
That may not seem like much, and to my knowledge no jubilees are being planned. And even if someone tried to organize a parade no fans would attend, anyway. It would look like just your basic weeknight game at Busch Stadium. But for what it’s worth, this 5-2 record represents the Cards best in any seven-game stretch this season.
What is this sudden uprising all about?
In no particular order:
1) The offense has powered up and is scoring with regularity. During their 5-2 rebellion against bad baseball, the Redbirds have averaged 5.1 runs, finessed a .340 onbase percentage, slugged .435, and swatted 1.6 homers per game. My goodness, this outbreak is so startling we even saw their first home run of the season by a designated hitter during Monday’s 6-3 win over the Pirates. Willson Contreras performed the honor. Did the Cardinals stop the game to note this grand achievement with a tribute video on the JumboTron?
2) The bullpen has gone from being a hazardous chemical leak to a cleaner, calmer and safer situation. The relievers are performing in a way that would get a salute from our outstanding St. Louis City Fire Department. I will have more on this later in The Review. It’s an interesting and potentially important development.
3) Recent arrivals have contributed. There’s the reliever Gordon Graceffo, the starter-reliever Mike McGreevy, a little bit of everything from utilitarian Jose Barrero – and the curiously effective and entertaining catcher Yohel Pozo.
4) The fellers are winning one-run games instead of dynamiting themselves and losing them. After starting off with an 0-5 record in one-run games through April 23, the Cardinals are 4-0 in these could-go-either-way tipping-point affairs since April 25.
5) Despite the absence of the traditional booming crowds in our baseball-loving (?) metropolis, the homefield continues to be an advantage. With Monday’s victory over the National League’s second-worst team, the Cardinals have a 13-6 mark at Busch Stadium They’re 3-1 in a six-game home stay, winning three games in two days against the Mets and Pirates. If the Cardinals can win at least one of the two remaining games against Pittsburgh, they’d have a 6-1 ledger in their first seven home series of the campaign.
6) Willson Contreras disregarded the hissing sounds of disapproving critics and stayed positive after beginning the season with five hits in his first 49 at-bats for a .102 average.
In his last 23 games, Contreras has batted .337 with five homers, 16 RBIs and a .959 OPS. Manager Oli Marmol made a smart move in placing Contreras in the 5th lineup spot. When batting 5th this season, Contreras is 10 for 24 (.417) with three home runs, nine RBIs and a 1.333 slug.
7) Victor Scott’s superb all-around play. The usual disclaimer: yeah, we know, it’s early. But it’s still fun and kind of cool to go to Baseball Reference, fiddle around on the StatHead search engine, and make this pleasant discovery: going into Tuesday, Scott is tied for 8th among National League position players with 1.5 bWAR. (That’s the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement.)
Fun with small samples: To add to the fun, Scott currently ranks ahead of these National League dignitaries in bWAR: Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Jackson Chourio, Manny Machado, Elly De La Cruz, William Contreras, Oneil Cruz and Michael Harris II.
What do Victor Scott and Kyle Tucker have in common? They both play the outfield, work for NL Central teams, and have a matching 1.5 bWAR through May 5. Here’s something they do not have in common: compensation level. Scott is making $764,150 this season. The Cubs are paying Tucker $16.5 million.
(So what’s your freaking point? Bernie, you idiot, are you really trying to say Victor Scott II is equal to Kyle Tucker? Signed, I.H. Everything, a perpetually outraged Cardinals fan.)
No. Victor Scott won’t stay with Tucker in the bWAR race as the season plays out. I am just a humble servant, trying to dish some praise to Victor Scott because he’s playing superb baseball, and providing a load of value for a low price. Oh, and did I mention that it’s early?
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: At 17-19, the Cardinals are close to catching up with fellow NL Central travelers Milwaukee and Cincinnati, both of whom are 18-18 … reality check: according to FanGraphs, the Cardinals have a 9.6 percent chance to win the division and a 15.1% shot of making the playoffs … Monday’s win gave the Cardinals a 6-5 record against their division mates; the Redbirds have played every NL Central team except the first-place Cubs (22-14.) The Cards and Cubs won’t renew their rivalry until June 23, when the North Siders travel to St. Louis for a four-game set.
ABOUT THAT STL BULLPEN: The Cardinals have tried to reshape the bullpen since demoting reliever Ryan Fernandez to Memphis on April 23, after he’d been lit up for walk-off homers in two consecutive games (Mets, Braves.) Fernandez had a 11.42 ERA at the time of the move.
Some good things have happened since then. Pitching coach Dusty Blake found a mechanical flaw in lefty reliever JoJo Romero and the fix has elevated Romero’s fastball velocity. The Cardinals have put other relievers into the mix including Gordon Graceffo and Matt Svanson. McGreevy’s relief turn Sunday against the Mets was fantastic.
Here’s what the bullpen numbers looked like after the Cards lost that walk-off to Atlanta on April 23:
+ 5.11 ERA, 26th in the MLB
+ 4.86 ERA from 7th inning on, 21st
+ 6 blown saves, tied for 3rd most in MLB
+ Save percentage, 53%
+ 50% of inherited runners scored
+ Opponent OPS: .743
And here are the bullpen numbers in the 11 games played since April 25:
+ 2.91 ERA, 10th in MLB
+ 2.90 ERA from 7th inning on, 10th
+ 1 blown save
+ 75% save percentage.
+ 32% of inherited runners scored
+ Opponent OPS: .596
Cardinals relievers still don’t strike out enough hitters but they’re walking fewer batters, and they have a lot of different guys effectively chipping in.
For example: Since April 25, Graceffo, Romero, Svanson, McGreevy, Kyle Leahy, Steven Matz and Chris Roycroft have combined for an 0.69 ERA in 25 and ⅔ innings. That gives the Cardinals protection when key bullpen parts (Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton) are scuffling a bit.
THE CARDS ARE 5-2 DESPITE: Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker combining for two hits in 25 at-bats (.080) with nine strikeouts and one extra-base hit over the team’s last seven games.
That said, at least there are a couple of encouraging signs from Gorman: In 21 plate appearances in the STL’s last seven games, Gorman has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). Gorman’s strikeout rate over the last seven games is 19 percent, and that looks good next to his team-best 28% walk rate over that time.
As for Walker, he hasn’t been used as much lately. During the 5-2 stretch only Luken Baker (4) has had fewer plate appearances than Walker’s 11.
IS BURLY BACK? Well, Alec Burleson has homered in two consecutive games after not homering at all since Aug. 17 of last season. In his last 10 games Burleson is hitting .286 with a .457 slugging percentage. Swinging at more strikes instead of chasing pitches out of the zone? It certainly helps.
WHAT ARE THE CARDINALS? Well, here’s an interesting view from Grant Brisbee, who wrote this of the Cardinals in The Athletic’s new Power Rankings, which has St. Louis at No. 23:
“The Cardinals are currently a ham sandwich with untoasted wheat bread, two slices of ham and no condiments. If you’re bullish on them, you can use deli ham instead of the prepackaged stuff, but you’re never going to make it exciting. Not without cloning Brendan Donovan.”
This was Brisbee’s way of praising Cards shortstop Masyn Winn and his return from the IL: “Winn is a dab of mustard, then. He might even be a little spicy, with a horseradish kick … he’s their most exciting player now, and there’s a decent chance that he’ll still be their most exciting player in 2028, so the more time they’re together, the better it is for everyone involved.”
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM), and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.