STL CITY SC’s depth has been tested early and often this season. And to get a little old school, it’s been found wanting. And now the schedule gets a little tight, multiple mid-week game popping up on the schedule in early May. Considering the injuries, potential returns & schedule congestion, what kind of rotation might we see this weekend? Or this week?
Here’s all the many variables (that we know of) that Olof & company are juggling.
Injuries
There are still a number of injuries that are affecting the CITY depth. Tomas Totland & Chris Durkin are both still out, complicating the 6/DM & RWB spots for the whole week. Bürki, Kessler & Alm are all still out as well.
On the path
Jake Girdwood-Reich, the youngest player on the active roster, is on the return but it sounded like an appearance even in the US Open Cup match mid-week would be a bridge too far considering his timeline. Let’s call it “doubtful”.
Eduard Löwen is back and based off Olof’s comments on Thursday afternoon—“Edu, unlikely that he is available…We’ll see if he can take in some way.”—I think we’re looking at ~15 minutes on Wednesday at the most.
Jay Reid is off the injury report for the first time this season after being listed as “Out” up through Sunday and was training with the team. Is he ready to go on Wednesday after just a week of full training?
Let’s get to Saturday first.
Schedule Congestion
Three main factors to look at here:
1) Which players are “in the red” ie have a little too many miles on the tire?
2) Away vs. Seattle, Home vs. Omaha (USL1), Home vs. San Diego - how does the difficulty and/or matchup decide things?
3) Four days between Games 1 & 2 + west coast travel vs. Three days all at home: Which one of these is the tougher turnaround?
It’s clear that CITY handles players on a case-by-case basis when it comes to return timelines & obviously they have a bevy of numbers that help them make decisions on players levels of stamina, but lets make some educated guesses based on the numbers we do have.
Based on his team-leading 891 minutes & the ground he covers in those minutes, Marcel Hartel is the most obvious candidate to be “in the red”, which would take him out for the mid-week matchup.
Hiebert is close behind him at 876 but his availability will be largely affected by the role he’s asked to play. He’s missed just 4 minutes of play this past month while playing both CB & WB and just ran a ton in the LA match. I don’t think it’s crazy to put him in the red either.
Wallem’s next in total minutes played and if it wasn’t for a freak moment in LA he probably would’ve gone the full 90 for the fifth game straight. Before that forced sub he had played 572 of the previous 577 minutes, mostly at 2-3 different positions in a wide-ranging touchline-to-touchline role whether he was on the flank or the central midfield. Red? Probably. Too important to play anything but the Seattle & SD games at 100%? Absolutely.
The fatigue factor drops off a little bit after those three players—at least from the cumulative perspective—but still might come into play with Klauss. He was pulled after 70 minutes in LA but had ripped three straight 90 minute starts prior to that. With striker/forward being the deepest spot on the roster—and only getting deeper when you bring the youth into the US Open Cup conversation—I would be surprised if we see Klauss mid-week & not involved in the Starting XI for both weekend MLS matches.
In a more short-term view of things, it’s the same case with Jannes Horn. He played 70 minutes after sitting out for a month and with the pinch at wingbacks + the Kessler injury CITY is going to need him for pivotal minutes in league matches.
So we’ll call that five players we’re eliminating off the top from mid-week play, whether as a starter or short-minute sub.
Let’s move on to some other pieces of the puzzle.
I’m not sure what to do with Celio Pompeu right now. He was cruising right along with three straight starts and was receiving glowing praise from Olof, Lutz & teammates for his ability to change what the offense can do with his 1v1 skills. Then he was on the bench for the most feckless half of CITY soccer this season (ever?). He again helped change what the offense could do when he came on to start the second half but topped that off with the inexcusable turnover that led to Bouanga’s run and game-tying goal.
The Ostrak-for-Celio decision in the starting XI, and consequentially the reversal at halftime, was not the main reason for the heavy difference in CITY’s performance, but it was an undeniable contributing factor.
So what happens in Seattle?
Maybe the month off is leading them to play it safe with the ground Horn has to cover?
Or with Wallem bombing up field on the left side so often they want one of their best defenders behind him?
Going back to the g+ from the graphic, Horn & Hiebert are both listed at CB in the database so we can compare a couple of offensive categories:
Dribbling, Horn is at 0.17 with Hiebert at 0.02.
Passing, Horn is at 0.05 with Hiebert at -0.22.
Why not put Hiebert at LCB, Horn at LWB & Wallem at RWB?
Olof said in Thursday’s pre-game presser that, “The main goal is to try to take as much out of our qualities as possible…”.
Seems like the move would serve that goal. But again, there is the fatigue/fitness factor to consider.
Holy crap we’re only through the first Saturday. When does Kessler come back again?
Anyhow, let’s move into the mid-week.
“People are looking at USL, “well that’s an easy game”. No, it’s not. It’s like a World Cup Final for the boys from Omaha…We need to take very serious. We need to play with out best available eleven”
Those are the words of CITY SC Sporting Director Lutz Pfannenstiel with Jen Siess on KMOX’s ‘CITY Spotlight’ in reference to their mid-week opponent, Union Omaha.
They are a fantastic USL League One side, finishing 1st in the league table three out of the last four seasons, but they did fall 5-1 to STL CITY SC in the Third Round of this same competition in 2023.
That was April 2023 and CITY was playing with the definition of house money. How would the fanbase react to a failure to advance on Wednesday night? I shudder to think about the discourse…
It seems like the mid-week game is a great time to get starts to players like Simon Becher, Joakim Nilsson and new addition Xande Silva. Add in Alfredo “Alfie” Morales’ availability after being suspended for this weekend in Seattle and we’re getting a solid lineup going.
Let’s also toss in some of those youth players who finally get more freedom to play in cup matches without burning any MLS availabilities.
“Beat available” gives them a lot of leeway and we’ve already ruled out five players, so let’s break this down spot-by-spot:
It’s not star-studded, but I would argue it would be the “best available”.
Just for comparison sake, CITY started Selmir Pidro in that 2023 matchup.