There are several options on DraftKings when looking at season-long player props for St. Louis Cardinals pitchers.
My stance on season-long player props in general is if I’m going to bet an over, I need to LOVE the over. I see it all the time in the NFL and MLB as well - especially for pitchers. There can be a player having a great season and pacing to go way over his prop, but if he suffers an injury where he misses a few games in football or several weeks in baseball, your over is toast. So I recommend exercising caution when betting an over for season-long player props.
Let’s take a look at some of the props available for Cardinals pitchers, and for each one, I’ll give my opinion on whether you should TAKE IT or LEAVE IT. Keep in mind there is no under option with these props - the only option is to take the over or pass.
Sonny Gray - 180+ strikeouts is -110, 200+ strikeouts is +155, and 12+ wins is -105 - LEAVE THEM
Gray had a mostly successful season in 2024. He did give up a career high 21 home runs and his ERA was higher than you’d want at 3.81. But under the hood, everything looked good with a 3.67 xERA, 3.12 FIP, and 2.82 xFIP. Gray finished the season at 13-9 with 203 strikeouts - meaning he hit all of these prop numbers last season.
However, I’m going to lean on the side of conservatism and leave these props here in 2025 due to injury concerns.
If Gray is healthy all year, I think he’ll hit all these numbers again. But here in his thirteenth MLB season, Gray has never had three healthy seasons in a row - and I’m counting last season as a healthy one even though he missed a little bit of time and finished at 166.1 innings. He finished at 184 innings in 2023. With Gray being 35 years old, I can’t trust his health enough to bet these props.
Erick Fedde - 140+ strikeouts is -110, 10+ wins is -120 - TAKE THEM
Fedde was pretty underwhelming in his two months with the Cardinals, but he had a very solid season overall in 2024 with a 9-9 record, 3.30 ERA, and 154 strikeouts in 177.1 innings with the White Sox and Redbirds.
I’m going to take these props because I believe in Fedde’s durability. He made 31 starts last season, and he racked up 30 starts the year before when he dominated in Korea and remade himself as a pitcher. Even in the two seasons prior to that when he struggled mightily, Fedde still made 27 and 29 starts for the Nationals.
Fedde accumulated nine wins last season while spending four months with a historically awful White Sox team, so I think he’ll get to ten wins in a full season with the Cardinals - or he’ll be even more likely to reach double digit wins if he gets traded to a real contender.
And after finishing with 154 strikeouts last season, I’m happy to take a shot on Fedde striking out 140 hitters in 2025 considering his durable history.
Ryan Helsley - 35+ saves is -120, 40+ saves is +155, and +750 to lead MLB in saves - LEAVE THEM
Helsley was the 2024 National League Reliever of the Year with an MLB-leading 49 saves to go along with a 2.04 ERA and only four blown saves.
I may be proven dumb on this one, but I have bad vibes on Helsley here in 2025.
I think the Cardinals should have cashed in and traded a closer at peak value when talking about a “reset” going into the offseason - and I have speculative injury concerns with him as well.
Helsley was incredibly dominant in 2022, but then he got hurt and missed about half the season in 2023. Then after another dominant year in 2024, I would not be surprised if things go wrong this season whether it’s with injury or with a regression in performance. In general, I don’t like betting on players or teams when their stock is at its highest.
Throw in the possibility of a trade to a superteam like the Dodgers that likes to mix and match pitchers to close games, and I just can’t get myself to invest in Helsley props here in 2025.
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Disclaimer