Missouri Tigers (17-6, 6-4 SEC) vs Oklahoma Sooners (16-7, 3-7 SEC), 8pm Wednesday
Spread: Missouri -8.5
Total: 150.5
KenPom projection: Missouri 80, Oklahoma 73
The #21 Missouri Tigers look to get back on the winning track when they host Oklahoma on Wednesday.
The Tigers faced two of the top defensive teams in the country last week in Tennessee and Texas A&M and dropped both games, but they should be able to impose their will offensively against an Oklahoma defense that is third-worst in the SEC according to KenPom. Mizzou has scored at least 81 points in six of their last nine games, and I expect them to reach that number in this one.
While many Mizzou fans just assume the Tigers will coast to victory, I would not be surprised to see Oklahoma keep it close. Despite their poor conference record, the Sooners are sneaky good offensively. They rank 5th in the SEC in field goal percentage, 4th in three-point percentage, and 1st in free throw percentage. Overall, KenPom has OU as the 23rd best offense in the country.
I do expect Mizzou to win in the 5-to-10 point range, so the line sounds about right. But a score in that range leads to a foulfest in the final minute or two of a game, and I think that’ll be enough to edge us over the total in a matchup between two good offenses.
Lean: Over 150.5
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams.