SLU Billikens (14-9, 7-3 Atlantic 10) at Saint Joseph’s Hawks (13-9, 4-5 Atlantic 10), 8pm Friday
Spread: Saint Joseph’s -4.5
Total: 144.5
KenPom projection: Saint Joseph’s 74, SLU 68
The Saint Louis University Billikens look to make it a perfect week on the road when they face Saint Joe’s on Friday in Philadelphia.
SLU absolutely stole the game this past Tuesday at UMass, erasing a five-point deficit in the final minute to pull out a 73-71 win. The victory kept the Bills in third place in the Atlantic 10, two games behind league-leading George Mason.
Meanwhile, Saint Joe’s has had the week off after an ugly 58-55 loss at Loyola Chicago last Saturday. The Hawks have now dropped five of their last eight games - a run that started with a 73-57 loss to SLU last month at Chaifetz Arena.
This line frankly smells fishy. The Billikens have the better record overall and in conference, in addition to that resounding head-to-head win. With home court advantage usually worth about three points to the spread, this line suggests the oddsmakers would make Saint Joe’s a favorite over SLU on a neutral floor.
I’m going to steer away from the stink and instead rely on a tried and trusted strategy that has led to a nice profit for me this season - betting the under in a SLU game.
The under train continues to roll on for the Billikens. The under has gone 17-4 in their 21 games against Division One opponents, including the previous matchup with Saint Joe’s that saw 130 points scored. And with the recent struggles of Robbie Avila, it’s tough to trust SLU to put up a lot of points.
The Hawks are the third-best defensive team in the A10 according to KenPom, and offensively they rank in the bottom half of the league in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Billikens should be able to continue their strong defensive play, as they rank first in conference play in both effective field goal percentage against and 3-point percentage against.
Choo-choo… let’s keep that under train rolling.
Pick: Under 144.5
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams.