Game Information
#14 Missouri Tigers (5-0) vs #8 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1)
Time: 11am CT Saturday
How to watch: ABC
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Alabama -3
Total: 51.5
The #14 Missouri Tigers hope to continue their undefeated season when they host the #8 Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday in Columbia.
There has been significant line movement in this game. The Crimson Tide opened as a 6.5 point favorite, but money has been pouring in on the Tigers throughout the week that has dropped the line to Alabama -3.
I truly think this game can go either way from a side perspective, but I believe there is good value on the total.
Both teams have a clear strength on offense, and those strengths match up perfectly with a glaring weakness on the other team’s defense.
Mizzou’s strength on offense is obviously their ground game. Ahmad Hardy is one of the best running backs in the country, and the Tigers rank 3rd in the nation in rushing yards per game.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense has been getting gashed in the run game. The Tide rank 87th in the county in rushing defense. Florida State ran for 230 yards against them, Georgia put up 227 yards on the ground, and Vanderbilt averaged over 7 yards per carry last week.
If Alabama stacks the box to try to stop Hardy, I think he can still be effective with how good he is getting yards after contact. And even if the Tide can slow down Hardy by stacking the box and it’s 1-on-1 on the outside, I think Mizzou has enough playmakers in the passing game to rack up some points.
On the other side, the struggles of the Tigers’ secondary are well-documented. If you’re a Mizzou fan, it’s going to be terrifying going up against Ty Simpson and this high-powered attack that ranks 5th in the country in passing yards. Even if the Tigers sell out to try to slow down Simpson and his stud receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams, Alabama can pound the rock with Jam Miller who had 22 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown last week against Vanderbilt.
I think both teams will score a lot in this one. Even if the defenses adjust to take away the other team’s strength, there’s enough talent on the field where these offenses can score in different ways. So look for a high-scoring, close affair that comes down to the wire.
Pick: Over 51.5 at -108 on DraftKings (bet to 52.5)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer