Let’s talk about Beau Pribula.
Let’s REALLY talk about Beau Pribula.
After the promising and largely unproven quarterback moved from Penn State to Mizzou in the transfer portal, this question popped up about a million times: hey, we know he’s a good runner, but what about his passing? Can he hit the target? Is he accurate? Or will he be throwing the football at feet, sailing it above heads, or airing passes to non-existent targets because he’s rattled after seeing pass-rush ghosts encircling him?
OK, Beau has played two games for Mizzou, and the first was against FCS member Central Arkansas. The real competition began last Saturday in CoMo, when the reviled Kansas Jayhawks invaded Faurot Field with mayhem on their minds.
The Border War Rivalry was back on. The kid from York, PA would be truly tested for the first time. This was indoctrination.
Welcome to Missouri, Beau. Now go show us what you got. Go slay the Jayhawks. Metaphorically speaking, of course. But if you screw up and lose this bad-blood rivalry game … well … just don’t do that.
If you watched Missouri’s 42-31 triumph, then now you can say that you know Beau. He was a revelation. A playbook of revelations. There wasn’t a type of pass he couldn’t deliver. His accuracy was amazing, and yeah I brought the numbers, because this is what I do. Bring the numbers.
At the risk of overreacting here, let me say this: the last time I felt this way watching a Missouri quarterback making a debut against a non-conference FBS opponent, I was at the dome in St. Louis, home (at the time) of The “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams.
Aug. 31, 2002. Mizzou vs. Illinois. Another rivalry game. And freshman quarterback Brad Smith made his debut, causing Illini defenders to get really dizzy as he spun passes for 152 yards in the air, galloped past tacklers on the turf for 138 yards rushing and a touchdown, and led Gary Pinkel’s squad to a damn impressive 33-20 victory.
Smith was an exciting presence. We didn’t know that until we saw him play. He put on a show on an eye-opening Saturday afternoon. Smith would finish the season with 2,333 yards passing, 1,029 yards rushing, and 22 touchdowns from scrimmage.
Though not Brad Smith, Pribula has a slick ability for running the football, and I’m sure we will see this time and time again this season. But be careful. Don’t get hurt. Maybe keep chucking the ball? Is that safer?
Against Kansas, Beau pretty much gave his wheels the day off and focused on air strikes, and the Jayhawks couldn’t really stop him – well, not after pouncing on a fumble and returning it for a touchdown early on. KU was up 14-6 after that, and increased the lead to 21-6 a few minutes later. Kansas wanted to ruin the party in CoMo.
Watching from home, as Bernie the Fan, I had anxious thoughts swirling in my head. Are the Tigers really going to lose this game?
Pribula gave us the answer.
No.
If you wondered how the new quarterback would handle his first big pile of adversity dumped on his head, there was no need to worry. But we didn’t realize that at the time, because MU went three-and-out on the next possession, which set up the ensuing Kansas touchdown that submerged Mizzou into a 15-point deficit.
And now it was time for The Beau Show.
You say he reminded you of Drew Lock?
I say he reminded me of Drew Brees.
After the early difficulties, Pribula entertained the fans in his new home by getting in the spirit of the rivalry … meaning that he set Kansas on fire. The Kansas defense, anyway.
Pribula hit the strike zone 30 times in 39 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. And the Tigers needed every one of those throws to escape second-half jams that put them behind by scores of 24-21 and 31-28.
I’ve got a lot of research to share with Mizzou fans. I don’t know where to begin. But I know where to end: Beau Pribula can throw the rock, he can deal with pressure, he can bounce up from sacks and hits, he loves the big moments, and he is a leader of men.
Not bad.
Probably the best pitcher from Pennsylvania for a Missouri-based sports team since future baseball Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter closed out Game 7 to lock down a victory that made the Cardinals the World Series champions in 1982. The late Sutter grew up in Lancaster, PA. That’s 27 miles from Pribula’s hometown.
OK, time to dig into the data.
Information was sourced from the extremely valuable analytics operation at Sports Info Solutions.
BEAU KNOWS ACCURACY
1. Beau completed 77 percent of his pass attempts. For the game, his on-target rate was 89.2%. Kansas may not have a stout defense, but you just don’t see a bunch of 89.2% on-target rate in games that pit Power Conference teams against each other.
2. Including the 61-6 whomping of Central Arkansas, Pribula leads FBS quarterbacks (minimum 50 attempts) with a 79.1 completion percentage. He is third nationally with a 92.2 percent catchable ball rate, and is at No. 5 in the land with an 84.4 percent on-target rate.
3. Beau doesn’t nibble. After two games, he has 388 air yards next to his name; that ranks 7th nationally, tied with Oklahoma’s celebrated QB John Mateer. So not only is Pribula accurate – he’s accurate on downfield connections.
4. Since accuracy and efficiency are important components of the passer-rating formula, Pribula through two games ranks No. 1 in the nation in the enhanced passer-rating metric developed by the smart people at Sports Info Solutions.
BEAU KNOWS EFFICIENCY
1. After two games – long way to go and all of that – Pribula leads all FBS quarterbacks in the Extra Points Added metric, also known as EPA.
2. Beau makes plays. Sports Info Solutions grades him at 59.7 percent on positive-play rate, which ranks No. 4 nationally. He has a “boom” (or big-play) rate of 32 percent, which ranks 7th. And plays that go bust – only 9.7% – is the seventh lowest among FBS quarterbacks.
BEAU KNOWS “CLUTCH”
The most impressive aspect of his performance that doomed KU was his exceptional precision on third-down and fourth-down plays. And Mizzou needed most of those throws to bail out of trouble or keep drives going. In his first two games, Pribula completed 18 of 22 throws on third-or-fourth down for 193 yards and four touchdowns. That competition rate on third-fourth down is No. 1 in the nation for FBS quarterbacks. His passer rating on third-fourth down is also the best at the FBS level so far.
BEAU KNOWS CLOSING
Just like Bruce Sutter, eh?
With Pribula’s fearless marksmanship, Missouri wore Kansas down with extended drives that ate up yards and the clock. Against the Jayhawks, the Tigers had five drives of 70+ yards, and five drives of 10+ plays. Mizzou’s five touchdown drives averaged nine plays and 71.2 yards. Two other possessions that resulted in field goals averaged 10.5 plays and 73.5 yards. That’s how you bleed out a defense.
BEAU KNOWS THE ANGLES
This is one of my favorite stats from the Kansas game. There’s a lot of numbers here, but follow them along, and if you are a Mizzou fan, these things will make you smile.
– When Pribula planted to throw, he completed 9 of 12 passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns and 11 of his 12 attempts were on target (91.6%).
– When throwing while on the move, he completed 3 of 4 passes for 31 yards with an on-target rate (75%) that matched his completion rate.
– When shuffling his feet to throw, Pribula completed 4 of 5 passes for 47 yards and a touchdown and had a 100 percent on-target rate.
– When taking a one-step drop to fire off a pass, Pribula hit on 12 of 13 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown … and yep, his on-target rate was 92.3 percent.
– When throwing to the left side of the field, Pribula completed 9 of 10 passes for 115 yards, two touchdowns and had a 100 percent on target-rate. Ridiculous.
– When throwing to the left-middle part of the field, Pribula hit on all six passing attempts that gained 50 yards.
– When throwing to the middle of the field, Pribula connected on 8 of 10 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown – and his on-target rate was 90 percent.
– When throwing to the right side: 4 of 5 for 35 yards. (On-target rate, 80%.)
– When throwing to the right-middle: 3 of 6 for 43 yards and an on-target rate of 67 percent.
BEAU KNOWS HOW TO SPREAD IT AROUND
He picked at the Kansas defense by completing all three passes aimed at his running backs, 20 of 27 passes to his wide receivers, and was 7-for-7 in throws to the tight end.
BEAU KNOWS PASS ROUTES
When throwing at the KU defense, here’s the variety of completions to each route:
* 3 connections in the seam.
* 4 completions in the flat.
* 5 on the curl route.
* 3 on the out route.
* 2 completions on screens.
* 1 completion on a corner route.
* 5 completions on a drag route.
* 2 completions in the deep cross.
* 2 completions on the over route.
* 1 completion on the swing route.
* 1 completion on a jet-sweep route.
* 1 connect on a wheel route.
That’s 12 different kinds of throws. Good grief.
BEAU KNOWS HOW TO DISSECT DEFENSES
He went 1 for 1 when Kansas played Cover zero defense.
And 4 for 5 when KU played Cover 1.
And 5 for 5 against Cover 2 – but did get sacked one time.
And 1 for 2 against Man-Cover defense and was sacked once.
Cover 3 gave him a little trouble, but he connected on 4 of 8 throws and had a 62.5 percent on-target rate. Kansas also got three quarterback pressures and a sack out of this defensive look.
Cover 4: get that outta here. Beau went 7 for 7 for 60 yards against that look.
BEAU KNOWS YOUR PASS-RUSH STRATEGIES
He completed 15 of 20 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown when KU rushed four at him.
When the Jayhawks rushed five men, Pribula completed 5 of 5.
When Kansas sent 6 men at him, Pribula scorched the invaders for a 27-yard TD pass to the tight end.
About the only thing that worked for KU was six in the box to crowd the line and get a quick jump on the snap. In those scenarios Pribula did complete 19 of 23 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. But with six in the box the Jayhawks did barge in for eight quarterback pressures and three sacks.
BEAU DOESN’T KNOW GLOATING
After Saturday’s conquest, Pribula wanted no part of “look at me” praise for his stellar performance on third-or-fourth down throws … the most important part of his takedown of the team from Lawrence.
“First of all,” Pribula told reporters, “we’ve got to stay out of third and fourth down.”
Am I hyperventilating over Pribula’s first test and the way he aced it? Why yes, of course I am. Absolutely. But he did this to Kansas, for cripe’s sake. That’s all of the permission I need to go bananas. Hey, and just wait until Beau goes into his Born to Run routine.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.