The Cardinals had a boring trade deadline. They did what was expected, and nothing more. They did not go big, or bold, or bodacious. Their moves were perfunctory and predictable.
Imagine John Mozeliak sitting in a chair, munching on a bowl of popcorn, and watching the MLB Network. That probably didn’t happen, but I’m trying to be a little silly here, and that’s the vision that came to mind as I tried to imagine the scene inside Destination Deadline headquarters at Busch Stadium.
As anticipated, the Cardinals gave a ticket to ride to relievers Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz. Helsley to Flushing Meadows (Mets), Matz to the Fenway-Kenmore district (Boston) and Maton to the industrial-stadium complex in Arlington TX.
The leader of an expiring regime (Mozeliak) dealt three guys with expiring contracts. That was it, and no one was injured in the filming of this film.
Mozeliak made a clean getaway, moving closer to the end of an era without setting more of Bill DeWitt’s payroll money ablaze, talking down to paying customers, or making a trade that included a regret to be named later.
OBSERVATIONS
1. I don’t do prospect grades in trades because it’s pretty arrogant, not to mention stupid, to claim to know how these developing talents will turn out. And that’s when analysis matters – after we know who they are and how they’ve done.
2. The Cardinals received four pitchers and two hitters – or six “maybes”. For what it’s worth, Baseball America ranked all of the prospects (94) that were moved during Rob Manfred’s flea market. And Jesus Baez – the hard-hitting infielder who came over from the Mets – was ranked as the 10th best prospect. And the power-arm profiles of the newly collected pitching prospects is fine with me. The Cardinals evidently want to see what this strikeout-pitcher hullabaloo thing is all about. Roll over, Bob Tewksbury. And tell Steve Mura the news.
3. I didn’t see a reason to attack on a blitz and immediately denigrate prospects gathered by the Cardinals this week. Chaim Bloom was the point man in identifying and recommending these young hopefuls and he’s good at this. And, I’m strongly in favor of stockpiling as many prospects as possible for the rebuild.
4. Of course, the necessary rebuild could be vetoed if the DeWitts fear the average number of tickets sold to home games in 2026 will fall to 19,000 next season. That would be the Pittsburgh Pirates. And the Cardinals could become the Pirates (on the field) if the DeWitts stand in the way of progress by refusing to acknowledge the very existence of the “R” word.
5. Get back, JoJo. Lefty reliever JoJo Romero was not traded. This surprised me. Because 31 percent of the MLB-experienced players got traded in the runup to the deadline were relief pitchers. That’s 45 names, but no JoJo. I hope this wasn’t a missed opportunity for Mozeliak to harvest a good return of talent by moving Romero. He’s one of the best late-inning lefties in the majors this season. And for added value Romero is under contract control through the end of 2026. Perhaps the Cardinals want Romero as their closer. Perhaps the DeWitts thought they’d lose more fans if JoJo was sent away. I keep hearing stuff like that … the DeWitts don’t want to alienate fans by trading veteran players who aren’t pending free agents. Um, hello? Anybody home? Tell me what the frequency is.
6. After this frantic trade tango ended, Mozeliak said the Cards had gotten “hit a lot” by teams seeking STL’s left-handed hitters. I assume the pertinent identities here are Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar and possibly Nolan Gorman. Maybe Victor Scott. JJ Wetherholt? HELL, NO. That just about covers it.
“But we were not motivated to move players that we had under control unless we were, to put it mildly, blown away,” Mozeliak said on a Zoom call. “And we just weren’t.”
7. This raises questions. Do you trust Mozeliak? Do you think it’s possible that he fielded a magnificent offer or two or three but made an error by dropping the ball and turning up his nose at teams that dared approach him with a trade proposal?
8. Did Mozeliak overplay his hand again? Did he overrate his own players again? Was he too arrogant and obnoxious to make a good trade? Is there Mozeliak fatigue out there among team baseball executives who are turned off by Mo’s tedious act? He has a rep: he is not easy to deal with, period. Some front offices don’t want to waste their time with a snobby peer.
9. This, from the fabulous Katie Woo of The Athletic: “St. Louis asked for remarkably high returns, with one rival executive describing the asks as ‘insane’ and another terming them as ‘sky-high’ .”
10. I think we have our answer (thanks, Katie). And I’d rather have Chaim Bloom make these trades instead of Mozeliak. Perhaps this was for the best. Next offseason, Bloom will have all of the time he needs to speak with as many teams as he wants, and explore every opportunity that’s out there, and get important things done by having a better relationship with front-office peers who will be ready to deal because (A) Chaim has an excellent reputation within the industry, and (B) he ain’t John Mozeliak.
11. The Cardinals really, really need to emerge from the coming offseason with a young, MLB-ready, cost-controlled starting pitcher (or two!) to cast a more dynamic rotation. It is the team’s most serious weakness.
12. Smilin’ Mike Shildt: Do you think the San Diego manager is happier in his situation with the Padres compared to the job he had in St. Louis? I’d say that’s entirely possible.
Shildt works for general manager A.J. Preller, who went on another trade-deadline binge this week, making five deals that had 22 players changing places: eight coming to the Padres, 14 moving on from the Padres.
The major-leaguers acquired by Preller were hot-shot reliever Mason Miller, starting pitchers J.P. Sears and Nestor Cortes, All-Star hitter Ryan O’Hearn, outfielder Ramón Laureano, catcher Freddy Fermin, and utility man Will Wagner.
The Padres needed at least two bats to boost their lineup and Preller got four. He added the dynamite throwing Miller to a bullpen that already was the best in MLB. He strengthened the bench and rotation and secured a starting catcher.
To get the highly coveted Miller away from the A’s, Preller happily handed over shortstop Leo De Vries, MLB’s No. 3 overall prospect. And he transported 11 other prospects during this trade parade.
Here’s a great note from Jayson Stark of The Athletic: Since 2022, Preller has acquired 13 All-Stars during the season. Yes, I said 13. That includes players who became All-Stars after Preller traded for them.
The list: Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Josh Bell, Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker, Garrett Cooper, Luis Arraez, Martín Pérez, Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, Mason Miller, Ryan O’Hearn, Nestor Cortes.
Stark added this: the Padres had to trade away 37 prospects (and a few veteran players) to close those deals. He’s a maniac.
"The expectation with this group is always to go win a ring, go win a championship," Preller said "That's the goal.”
The Padres haven’t won a World Series – but Preller will try, try and try until they do.
Mozeliak’s abrupt decision to sack Shildt days after the Cards were eliminated in the 2021 wild-card game paid off very well for the manager … and not so well for the president of baseball ops who fired him.
One more thing on this: I laugh when I see critics ripping Preller for making all of these great trades that haven't produced an NL pennant or World Series title. Really? Oh, how soon we forget. The excellent tandem of GM Walt Jocketty and Tony La Russa didn't win their first NL pennant until their 9th season (2004) together in St. Louis -- and didn't win a World Series as a tandem until their 11th season (2006.) I'm pretty sure 99 percent of the Cards fan base would prefer the entertaining Preller approach to the "Stay In The Middle And Please Careful And Play It Safe And Pray For A Wild-Card Spot" strategy preferred by the Cardinals over the last decade.
13. Cards closer? Let the auditions begin. In no order of specific importance, the candidates include Romero, Gordon Graceffo, Riley O’Brien, Kyle Leahy, Andre Granillo, Matt Svanson and Ryan Fernandez. I hope Oli Marmol has some fun with this. And I hope he has an abundant supply of antacid tablets. But here's the deal: it isn't just about the 9th inning. Games can be secured or lost in the 7th inning, 8th inning and 9th inning. This is a terrific chance to put young or otherwise inexperienced relievers an opportunity to take on the pressure in high-leverage tests. It doesn't have to be in the 9th inning.
14. Nolan Arenado to the Injured List. Nolan Gorman returns from the IL to move in at third base … which is what the Cardinals wanted all along – only to have that plan fall apart when Arenado vetoed a trade to Houston last offseason. Arenado has been dealing with a shoulder impingement that has limited his power. Since the start of May, among the 23 major-league third baseman that have at least 150 plate appearances over that time, Arenado ranks 19th in slugging, 20th in OPS, and 21st in OBP. His wRC+ since the start of May is 26 percent below league average offensively.
15. There’s no reason to rush Arenado back into the lineup when he’s ready to go. The Cardinals must focus on the future and let Gorman start many of the team’s final 51 games – either at third base, second base or DH. And if Gorman doesn’t start every game against a right-handed starting pitcher, then this whole “runway” season marketing campaign will be exposed.
16. And when and if Arenado tries to talk himself into the lineup when Marmol has other plans – well, Oli needs to say no. This is an awkward situation for the team and the manager. But the Cardinals are out of postseason contention; FanGraphs gives them a 7% chance of getting there. The PECOTA forecast at Baseball Prospectus currently projects a final 79-83 record for the Cardinals. There is nothing at stake here. You wanted 2025 to be a vehicle for young players to show what they can do? Well, live up to that pledge. This is the time to do it. No excuses. None at all. And this just isn’t about third base. It applies to other positions as well.
16a. Note to Oli: if Earl Weaver benched Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson, then it’s hardly scandalous or shameful to reduce Nolan Arenado’s playing time. I asked Earl about what it was like to bench Robinson, the Oriole icon.
“I called Brooks into the office, and I hated myself for telling him I couldn’t play him anymore,” Weaver said. “He won so many games for us, and he was a Hall of Famer, and everybody loved him. I loved him. But I had to do it because it was best for the team. Those tough decisions come with the job.”
(Earl also had some things to say about the 1996 controversy in St. Louis when Tony La Russa started Royce Clayton over Ozzie Smith at shortstop, but that’s another story for another time.)
17. I don’t know how the Arenado drama ends. But I do know this: Bill DeWitt can make all of this go away by releasing Arenado. That would mean absorbing what remains on his salary for 2025 (around $7 million) and then digesting the total of $42 million due Arenado over the next two seasons.
18. That guaranteed money will be paid to Arenado no matter what. It’s already gone. So what is the point here? If he isn’t happy and if the Cardinals want to open up third base for a younger player, then why prolong a horrible situation?
19. Also: DeWitt has done this in the past. It’s happened more than a few times. I added up the sunken costs of the team moving on from Mike Leake, Dexter Fowler, Johnny Peralta, Ty Wigginton, Brett Cecil, Greg Holland and Jonathan Broxton – and it came to an estimated total of nearly $49 million. And I may have overlooked another example or two. So let’s call it $50 million.
20. And if the Cardinals choose to part ways with Arenado, this is another thing to remember: his replacement at third base won’t pull in a substantial salary. My friend and colleague Randy Karraker pointed this out, and it is relevant to the discussion. (Thanks, RK.) Gorman will enter his first year of salary arbitration after this season, so his current $783,000 for 2025 will take a jump. But his 2026 salary won’t be extravagant. The point is, to replace Arenado the Cardinals won’t have to go out and get another third baseman at significant cost. And once again, Arenado will get all of the money owed to him whether he’s a Cardinal or not.
21. OK, maybe there’s one exception: the Cardinals find a trade partner willing to take a chance on Arenado – but that won’t happen unless DeWitt picks up a huge part of the tab. It makes no sense to continue down this path.
I’m finished typing.
Pardon my typos.
Thanks for reading and I hope you have a wonderful weekend.
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang, "Redbird Rush Hour” and "Sports On a Sunday Morning" at KMOX, and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.