The Cardinals need to regroup, which could be a problematic undertaking considering that the Los Angeles Dodgers are here for a three-game weekend residency at Busch Stadium.
It’s “LA Week” in St. Louis, with the Pulitzer Prize winning rapper Kendrick Lamar filling the Edward Jones Dome to capacity on Wednesday night. Lamar, who hails from Compton, received a fantastic assist from SZA, the immensely talented St. Louisan who rates among the best R&B singers in the world.
If you want to listen to something special, then check out their collaboration on “luther,” one of the best tracks on Lamar’s latest album (GNX.)
With its 23rd week at No. 1, “luther” has set a new record for the longest time in the top spot of the Hot R&B/Hip-Hop songs chart. Before that, SZA’s “Kill Bill” had the record with a 21-week run at No. 1 in 2022-23.
(See? I always bring the numbers in the Redbird Review.)
I was unable to go to the show. But with the Cardinals rained out on Wednesday, I wonder if third baseman Nolan Arenado made it over to the dome? He’s a Lamar fan. It’s the SoCal connection.
Last offseason, when it appeared that Arenado would be traded, he dropped a hint on a preferred destination on a social-media post soundtracked by Lamar’s song, “Dodger Blue.” Nado’s recruiting pitch did not inspire the Dodgers to trade for him.
The Post-Dispatch wrote this about Wednesday’s show: “While Lamar remained focused on his keen, lyrical performance, incredible pyrotechnics and mind-blowing choreography added flair to his sets.”
So: maybe Kendrick Lamar was setting the vibe for the Dodgers’ visit to The Lou?
If you’ve watched the Dodgers you’ve seen incredible pyrotechnics from Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Andy Pages, Will Smith, Max Muncy and their bandmates. And the choreography on LA’s home-run trots is stylish and impressive.
Coming into Busch Stadium, the Dodgers rank second to the Cubs among MLB teams in runs per game (5.7) and on-base percentage and ranked No. 1 in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+.) When swinging a bat with runners in scoring position, the Dodgers lead the majors with a .314 batting average and a .586 slug. Ridiculous.
The timing could be better.
This could be trouble.
Since May 18, St. Louis pitchers rank 28th overall in the majors with a 4.60 ERA. Over that time, only the Rockies have a worse ERA in the National League.
I’ll take a look at that, the starting pitching, and other items of interest, in this latest edition of The Redbird Review.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: By losing to the Rangers and Royals, the Cardinals have lost two consecutive series for the first time since going down to the Mets and Braves on the road from April 17-23 … and the Cards have lost lost three of their last five series as well … the Redbirds are 2-4 in their last six games, and 8-8 since May 18 … since May 20 the Cardinals (7-7) have the 9th best winning percentage among NL teams and have been outscored 75-56 for a run differential of minus 19.
WHAT FANGRAPHS TELLS US: According to the FGCardinals, who are 34-28, will have a 49-51 record over their final 100 games to finish with an 83-79 record. If that happens, that would match STL’s record in 2024 … the latest postseason probabilities have the Cards with a 12.3 percent chance to win the NL Central, and a 21.2% crack at grabbing a wild-card ticket … in the NL Central, the Cardinals remain 5 games behind the first-place Cubs (39-23), a half-game ahead of the third-place Brewers (34-29) and are a half-game behind the Giants (35-28) for the NL’s third wild-card spot.
ARE THE DODGERS INVINCIBLE? No. Heck, no. They could have that invincible, inevitable look going into the postseason, but the Dodgers have struggled more than assumed.
+ As of Friday morning the Cardinals are only 3 and ½ games back of the Dodgers in the overall MLB standings. That, despite a massive disparity in each team’s payroll size.
+ After starting the 2025 regular season by winning their first eight games, the Dodgers have gone 30-25. That’s only a half-game better than the Cardinals (30-26) over that time.
+ As a matter of fact, after a poor start the Cardinals have a better record (29-21) than the Dodgers (28-21) since April 11.
+ Despite their recent downturn, the Cardinals have the NL’s best record (22-11) since April 30; the Dodgers are 18-15 over the same 33-game run of schedule.
+ The Dodgers have an ordinary road record of 15-14 this season and are 4-4-1 in their nine road series so far.
+ In games against teams that have a winning record based on the current standings, the Cardinals have the second-best mark in the majors (20-14). Only the Mets (23-15) have topped that. The Dodgers are 18-15 against teams that are currently over .500.
WHERE ARE THE DODGERS VULNERABLE? In a word, the answer is “pitching.” Los Angeles enters the weekend with a 4.13 ERA overall (22nd), a 4.35 starting-pitching ERA (22nd), and a 3.90 bullpen ERA that ranks 19th. The Dodgers’ pitching staff ranks 25th in home runs allowed per nine innings and owns the eighth-worst walk rate in the majors.
WHY IS THE LOS ANGELES PITCHING SO MEDIOCRE? A total of 17 Los Angeles pitchers have missed a combined 911 games this season while recovering on the Injured List with assorted strains, inflammation, and surgeries for the elbow or shoulder.
Notable starting pitchers have missed considerable time including Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Tony Gonsolin and Gavin Stone. (Kershaw and Gonsolin have returned.) Stone (shoulder surgery) hasn’t pitched at all this season.
The other five – Kershaw, Snell, Glasnow, Sasaki and Gonsolin – have pitched only 113 innings combined. The combined 2025 salaries of Kershaw, Snell, Glasnow and Gonsolin amount to $71.5 million as applied to the 40-man luxury-tax roster.
Also missing because of injuries are five relievers who worked out of the LA bullpen last October when the Dodgers made a postseason run to the World Series title. The most notable among them are Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Brusdar Gaterol.
The Dodgers currently have $103.63 million worth of talent (2025 salaries) idling on the Injured List.
In their first 63 games the Dodgers have used 29 different pitchers – some of whom have worked as a starter or reliever depending on need. Thirteen pitchers have started games, and 22 relievers have worked in relief.
Through Thursday, the Cardinals had used 19 pitchers: six starters and 14 relievers. Steven Matz has done both.
With all of the injuries, scrambling and shuffling, the Dodgers’ starters rank next to last (29th) for most innings pitched. And the LA relievers have logged the most innings (270) by a bullpen in the majors.
FUN WITH PAYROLL NUMBERS: If we add up the Dodgers’ 40-man luxury tax payroll ($405.9 million) and the penalties for exceeding that payroll, their all-encompassing payroll tab comes to about $562 million. The Cardinals? Their total payroll allocation is $160.1 million.
BIRD BYTES
1. Fingers crossed on Matthew Liberatore. I hope the Cardinals were on the mark in saying they weren’t concerned by Libby’s performance and abbreviated outing because of “fatigue” in Wednesday’s discouraging 7-5 loss to the Royals.
2. With the exception of Sonny Gray, who starts Friday against the Dodgers, the Cardinals’ starting pitching is a problem. In his two starts. Gray has given up three earned runs in 13 innings since May 20 for a sweet 2.08 ERA. But the other four St. Louis starters – Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas – have a combined 5.93 ERA in their 12 starts.
In the team’s seven losses since May 20, St. Louis starters have combined for a 7.68 ERA.
3. Michael McGreevy can’t get here fast enough. And if he pitches well as a starter, he has to stay in the rotation. He’s a better pitcher – with more tools – than Pallante.
Trends …
– Liberatore has an 11.00 ERA in his last two starts.
– Pallante has been smashed for a 5.80 ERA in his last nine starts.
– Mikolas has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts but one was a quality start against the Royals.
– Fedde has a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts with one quality start (at Texas.)
4. The Cards bullpen has a 4.37 ERA over the last 14 games; that ranks 22nd in the majors over that time.
5. Masyn Winn has been outstanding at the plate since manager Oli Marmol moved him to the No. 2 lineup spot. In 135 plate appearances at No. 2, Winn has a .305 average, .381 onbase rate and a .500 slugging percentage for an .833 OPS. Per wRC+, Winn has been 49 percent above league average offensively when batting second. He’s shown admirable plate discipline in the No. 2 slot – with a high 10.4 percent walk rate and a low 15.6% strikeout rate.
6. Jordan Walker’s setback while rehabbing his sore wrist comes at a bad time – mostly for him. Walker had a booming bat over a 13-game stretch before going on the IL. The interruption could cost Walker the momentum he’d been generating.
7. Victor Scott II was 0 for 4 in Thursday’s doubleheader split and is now 2 for 32 (.063) with 14 strikeouts in his last 11 games. Scott, who bats left, is hitting .179 with a .491 OPS against lefty pitchers this season with a 30 percent strikeout rate.
8. Willson Contreras is a joy to watch: since emerging from his early-season ice-age start, Contreras has taken his place among the best right-handed hitters in the National League. Per wRC+, he’s 36 percent above league average offensively since April 12 – making him the sixth-best RH batter in the NL over that time. He’s 5th in on-base percentage (.371), 10th in slugging (.462) and 8th in OPS at .833.
9. Pedro Pages: among MLB catchers that have worked at least 300 innings this season, Pages has been credited with 7 defensive runs saved – which ranks second in the majors to the Giants’ Patrick Bailey. And Pages’ 28 percent caught-stealing rate is six percent above the MLB average, and it’s fourth best among catchers with 300+ innings.
Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend!
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.